LinenMito’s updated analysis of @variational_io points.

1/

The most impressive number from our latest four-week study was not the point rate.

It was Variational’s growth in trading volume.

From the first to the fourth week of August, weekly volume increased from:

$5.4B → $9.9B

That is an 83% increase in just three weeks.

According to DefiLlama, Variational currently ranks approximately:

#3 among perp DEXs by OI
#6 by 7-day and 30-day volume

Meanwhile, BTC points per $1M of volume fell from:

8.3 points → 4.6 points

The platform grew, while pure volume-farming efficiency declined.

2/

We do not view this negatively.

In our previous Variational execution-cost study, we analyzed:

• 624 BTC perp fills
• $37.4M in total notional
• $15K–$100K clip sizes

The measured all-in taker execution cost, including the actual fill price, was approximately:

0.8bp per side, or 0.008%

At that level, arbitrage, funding, relative-value, hedging, and directional strategies can make economic sense even without points.

As more execution-driven flow enters the venue, the profitability of repeatedly paying spread purely to farm points naturally declines.

3/

Using the latest observed rate:

• $1M of BTC volume
=> 4.6 boosted points
• $20 assumed value per point
=> $92 in expected point value
• approximately $83 in measured execution cost

That leaves only:

Approximately $9 per $1M of BTC volume

And this is before funding, hedge execution, market movement, operational mistakes, point dilution, and uncertainty around the eventual point value.

Without the 18% boost, the base rate is approximately 3.9 points.

At $20 per point:

3.9 × $20 = $78

That is already below the measured execution cost.

Under the latest conditions, pure BTC volume farming appears close to breakeven even with the boost and may already be negative without it.

4/

Based on our latest four-week sample, the updated point matrix is approximately:

• $1M average gross OI maintained for one week: 35 points
• Base OI rate without the boost: 29.5 points
• $1M BTC volume: 4.6 points
• Base BTC volume rate: 3.9 points
• $1M RWA/TradFi volume: 30–50 points

RWA markets generate more points per nominal dollar, but their spreads are also substantially wider, so they are not necessarily more efficient.

At current rates:

$1M of average gross OI maintained for one week
≈ $7M–$8M of BTC trading volume

OI points remained relatively stable across the four weeks, while volume-point efficiency declined rapidly as platform volume increased.

5/

Our previous analysis on May estimated approximately 50–54 boosted points per $1M OI-week.

After collecting four additional weeks of data, the current rate appears closer to 35 points.

As a result, assuming $20 per point and gross OI equal to 15x deposited capital, our estimated annualized point value changes from:

Previous estimate: ~84%
Updated estimate: ~55%

At the latest observed rate:

• $10 per point → ~27%
• $20 per point → ~55%
• $30 per point → ~82%

These are theoretical gross annualized figures assuming the current rate continues for 52 weeks.

They do not include funding, spread, liquidation risk, counterparty risk, operational risk, or uncertainty around the eventual value of the points.

The original thesis remains intact.

But the APR estimate needed to be revised.

6/

The most bullish takeaway is not the theoretical point APR.

It is that Variational’s weekly volume nearly doubled during August, and pure farming returns declined as a result.

A successful incentive program should eventually make itself less necessary.

The healthiest outcome is for traders to use Variational because the execution itself is competitive, while points simply improve the expected value of trades that already make economic sense.

Our preferred approach remains simple:

Execution edge first. Points second.

Trade because the trade itself makes sense.

Let the points be the bonus.

(All observed rates above include the 18% boost applied to the measured accounts.)

## LinenMito Variational 분석 — 핵심

1. 볼륨
- 8월 첫주→넷째주: $5.4B → $9.9B (+83%)
- perp DEX 중 OI 3위, 볼륨 6위
- BTC 볼륨당 포인트: 8.3 → 4.6 pt/$1M (효율 급감)

2. 체결비용
- BTC 624건, $37.4M 노셔널 기준
- 올인 테이커 체결비용 편도 0.8bp (0.008%)

3. BTC 볼륨 파밍 수익성
- $1M 볼륨 → 4.6pt × $20 = $92, 체결비용 $83 → 순 $9/$1M
- 부스트 제외 시 3.9pt × $20 = $78 < $83 → 마이너스
- 펀딩·헤지·희석 등 차감 전 수치

4. 포인트 매트릭스
- $1M gross OI 1주 유지: 35pt (base 29.5)
- $1M BTC 볼륨: 4.6pt (base 3.9)
- $1M RWA/TradFi 볼륨: 30~50pt (단 스프레드 넓음)
- $1M OI-week ≈ $7~8M 볼륨

5. APR 추정 하향
- 5월 50~54pt → 현재 35pt/$1M OI-week
- 연환산(OI=예치금 15배, $20/pt): 이전 84% → 현재 55%
- $10/pt→27% / $20/pt→55% / $30/pt→82%
- 펀딩·스프레드·청산·카운터파티 리스크 미포함 gross 수치

6. 결론
- 볼륨 2배 증가하며 순수 파밍 수익 하락 = 인센티브 프로그램의 정상적 성숙
- 접근법: 체결 엣지 먼저, 포인트는 보너스

ㅅㅂ!

인젝티브 대표는 생일에
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2026-08-29 오후 6:00] 크립토 KOL 쓰레기통: 그냥 우리 둘만아는걸로하고 단도직입적으로 말씀드려도 될까요.
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이런말씀 드려도 되는진 모르겠는데 저도 손실을 많이 본 상황이라...

이렇게 초기랑 변질되면 그냥 흔한
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돈 달라고 하는 건 ㅅㅂ ㅋㅋㅋ
어이가 없네

일단 오늘 UMIA 넣었는데 이게 맞나

근데 난 말야
지금 싸우는 걸 보면서
주말에 싸울 힘이 남은 게
다들 부러움..

난 오늘 8시59분에 알람 맞춰놓고
"야 잠시만 기다려봐
비즈니스 비즈니스"

이러고 umia 넣고 있으니까
진짜 사회부적응자처럼 보았을듯

이새끼 헌팅 실패하니까 존나 말 많아진거 같은데?

160m이라... 애매하긴한데
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LP 플레이에 관심있는사람?