How to trade Brazil on the Monday open:
Short $NU and $EWZS (Brazil small caps)
Long $VALE (they earn in US Dollars so the 10% and service in Reals so the drop in the Real doesn’t impact them directly, it helps them)
Vols will be thru the roof so selling call spreads on any bounce is a better trade than buying puts outright.
Not financial advice.
Never take financial advice from anyone, anywhere at any time.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114531509130666036
Short $NU and $EWZS (Brazil small caps)
Long $VALE (they earn in US Dollars so the 10% and service in Reals so the drop in the Real doesn’t impact them directly, it helps them)
Vols will be thru the roof so selling call spreads on any bounce is a better trade than buying puts outright.
Not financial advice.
Never take financial advice from anyone, anywhere at any time.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114531509130666036
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Quite the perfect rounding bottom in $TLT on the daily and potentially setting up for sideways action for a monster cup and handle.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114735200328659135
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114735200328659135
Massive downside for oil
CTA downside convexity in oil is the definition of asymmetry.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114822571636232359
CTA downside convexity in oil is the definition of asymmetry.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114822571636232359
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Worst in 100 years
The 10-year rolling return on US Treasuries is now -1%, below the lows of December 1959 and September 1981, the latter of which marked the start of the greatest bond bull market in history:
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114832263582249459
The 10-year rolling return on US Treasuries is now -1%, below the lows of December 1959 and September 1981, the latter of which marked the start of the greatest bond bull market in history:
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2114832263582249459
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Meta $25bn common-stock offering about 5x subscribed
$META's expanded $25bn common-stock offering drew roughly five times demand for available shares. The company is targeting up to $98bn to fund AI spending.
More than half of the allotment went to long-term investors and existing shareholders; the top 15 subscribers received about 70% of the offering.
The deal priced at $625 per share, a 2.7% discount to the close the Friday before the announcement.
The equity sale is part of a broader financing package that includes $12.5bn of mandatory convertible preferred and expected at‑market share placements; if the full $98bn is raised it would be among the largest equity financings on record.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115091374991426021
$META's expanded $25bn common-stock offering drew roughly five times demand for available shares. The company is targeting up to $98bn to fund AI spending.
More than half of the allotment went to long-term investors and existing shareholders; the top 15 subscribers received about 70% of the offering.
The deal priced at $625 per share, a 2.7% discount to the close the Friday before the announcement.
The equity sale is part of a broader financing package that includes $12.5bn of mandatory convertible preferred and expected at‑market share placements; if the full $98bn is raised it would be among the largest equity financings on record.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115091374991426021
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$GOOGL bouncing right where it is supposed to. Earnings tomorrow
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115164493995200610
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115164493995200610
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Yesterday’s selloff was nothing short of historic
Positioning in $USDBRL longs according to the @UBS FX Flow Monitor highlights a sharp reduction by HFs yesterday at a -5σ pace.
That's the largest daily loss for $USDBRL over the past ten years
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115165407032258979
Positioning in $USDBRL longs according to the @UBS FX Flow Monitor highlights a sharp reduction by HFs yesterday at a -5σ pace.
That's the largest daily loss for $USDBRL over the past ten years
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115165407032258979
AI rebounds, 286 names fall
AI is rebounding. Breadth isn't keeping up. @GoldmanSachs' US equities desk put NDX at +1.40%, reclaiming its 100DMA, in its 27 Oct 2026 midday update. SPX ex AI was down 50bps, with 286 names down.
@GoldmanSachs said "AI financing concern" eased after $META and $AVGO funding success. The rebound from oversold conditions was strongest in the AI complex: neoclouds +585bps, optical +5% and inference chips +466bps.
Momentum was +272bps and +8% in 3 sessions after a ~20% drawdown. @GoldmanSachs described flows as stable, with hedge funds favoring tech/financials over consumer/macro. That's a tactical recovery. The desk flagged weaker breadth as a potential source of risk-off pressure.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115235827831959764
AI is rebounding. Breadth isn't keeping up. @GoldmanSachs' US equities desk put NDX at +1.40%, reclaiming its 100DMA, in its 27 Oct 2026 midday update. SPX ex AI was down 50bps, with 286 names down.
@GoldmanSachs said "AI financing concern" eased after $META and $AVGO funding success. The rebound from oversold conditions was strongest in the AI complex: neoclouds +585bps, optical +5% and inference chips +466bps.
Momentum was +272bps and +8% in 3 sessions after a ~20% drawdown. @GoldmanSachs described flows as stable, with hedge funds favoring tech/financials over consumer/macro. That's a tactical recovery. The desk flagged weaker breadth as a potential source of risk-off pressure.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115235827831959764
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AI token costs fall to ~50% of May peak
LLM token costs fell to ~50% of their May peak, according to @Nordea.
Nordea cites a Stanford study that found smaller models match or outrun larger ones on mainstream tasks. Smaller language models use 3% of the energy of large models, while 49% of business leaders are scaling back AI.
The longer-term risk is a mismatch between demand and capacity.
Nordea warns that a shift toward local AI and smaller models could leave data centres with overcapacity against 5-year project timelines.
Once again, Wall Street is long the left tail of compute, not long the right tail like technologists are.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115277246818828436
LLM token costs fell to ~50% of their May peak, according to @Nordea.
Nordea cites a Stanford study that found smaller models match or outrun larger ones on mainstream tasks. Smaller language models use 3% of the energy of large models, while 49% of business leaders are scaling back AI.
The longer-term risk is a mismatch between demand and capacity.
Nordea warns that a shift toward local AI and smaller models could leave data centres with overcapacity against 5-year project timelines.
Once again, Wall Street is long the left tail of compute, not long the right tail like technologists are.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115277246818828436
Nasdaq futures open interest jumps $10.6bn as earnings risk builds
@GoldmanSachs identifies a $9.5bn purchase in Nasdaq non-dealer net positioning, a new high.
With non-dealer positioning elevated in the CFTC data for Oct 20, @GoldmanSachs sees significant futures selling risk if Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet results disappoint.
Funding adds another concern. @GoldmanSachs points to volatile Nasdaq funding costs above those of the S&P, with sector-specific liquidity risk for tech-heavy portfolios.
$AMZN $META $GOOGL
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115280713335640354
@GoldmanSachs identifies a $9.5bn purchase in Nasdaq non-dealer net positioning, a new high.
With non-dealer positioning elevated in the CFTC data for Oct 20, @GoldmanSachs sees significant futures selling risk if Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet results disappoint.
Funding adds another concern. @GoldmanSachs points to volatile Nasdaq funding costs above those of the S&P, with sector-specific liquidity risk for tech-heavy portfolios.
$AMZN $META $GOOGL
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115280713335640354
All time low
"Available cash on the NYSE as a % of market cap is at its lowest level in history."
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115773443941749107
"Available cash on the NYSE as a % of market cap is at its lowest level in history."
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115773443941749107
CTAs are short the long end almost everywhere
The govvie-futures matrix shows CTA signals are "overwhelmingly Short across most tenors, nearly all Americas and EMEA instruments flash Short," with the lone Long sitting on China 10y.
When the systematic crowd is this one-sided short bonds, the pain trade is a rally nobody is positioned for.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115781525803499950
The govvie-futures matrix shows CTA signals are "overwhelmingly Short across most tenors, nearly all Americas and EMEA instruments flash Short," with the lone Long sitting on China 10y.
When the systematic crowd is this one-sided short bonds, the pain trade is a rally nobody is positioned for.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115781525803499950
FOMC flipped from hikes to hold in six weeks — @scotiabank
The Fed reversed course fast.
As recently as September 16 the committee was raising rates. By October 28 it shifted to maintaining the target. That's a sharp turn, and it didn't come without friction: dissenters Cook and Hammack prefer hikes, per Scotiabank's read of the decision.
That internal split raises the odds of more volatility around future meetings.
A committee that just reversed direction and still has vocal hawks isn't one sending a clean signal.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115783159489130542
The Fed reversed course fast.
As recently as September 16 the committee was raising rates. By October 28 it shifted to maintaining the target. That's a sharp turn, and it didn't come without friction: dissenters Cook and Hammack prefer hikes, per Scotiabank's read of the decision.
That internal split raises the odds of more volatility around future meetings.
A committee that just reversed direction and still has vocal hawks isn't one sending a clean signal.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115783159489130542
Inflation breadth stays above its 2017-2019 average
Inflation is still spread across more PCE components than the 2017-2019 average. UBS's chart tracks the share with 6m annual inflation above 3%. That share remains elevated, even after retreating from its peak.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115798808713986362
Inflation is still spread across more PCE components than the 2017-2019 average. UBS's chart tracks the share with 6m annual inflation above 3%. That share remains elevated, even after retreating from its peak.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115798808713986362
The token bull market continues.
Total token spending rose 23.0% compared with the same week last month.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115802080082612557
Total token spending rose 23.0% compared with the same week last month.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2115802080082612557
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