History says buy the rotation
The last five rotations into Tech saw the sector gain an average 38%, outperforming the rest of the S&P 500 by 33 percentage points.
The broader market joined the party, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 20% on average over those episodes.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117006566667014442
The last five rotations into Tech saw the sector gain an average 38%, outperforming the rest of the S&P 500 by 33 percentage points.
The broader market joined the party, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 20% on average over those episodes.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117006566667014442
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YTD IG issuance is $2 Trillion.
Investment-grade issuance hit $60bn, including $25bn from Microsoft, in @GoldmanSachs' 1 Nov 2026 credit update.
Cash spreads widened to 90bps as Treasuries rallied.
Concentrated supply is testing appetite, with incremental issuance and spread concessions the risk to watch.
High-yield option-adjusted spreads widened to 312bps, the widest since May 2025.
All-in yields reached 8.31%. Earnings and AI-related weakness reversed the rally. $VRRM bonds fell 9pts on Avis uncertainty.
@GoldmanSachs's desk bias is to sell rallies, with tactical length at wides.
The desk is willing to buy wider spreads while keeping its broader sell-rallies bias.
Next week's calendar includes US midterms, Treasury refunding and October payrolls, alongside heavy supply and AI financing uncertainty.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117042380599967753
Investment-grade issuance hit $60bn, including $25bn from Microsoft, in @GoldmanSachs' 1 Nov 2026 credit update.
Cash spreads widened to 90bps as Treasuries rallied.
Concentrated supply is testing appetite, with incremental issuance and spread concessions the risk to watch.
High-yield option-adjusted spreads widened to 312bps, the widest since May 2025.
All-in yields reached 8.31%. Earnings and AI-related weakness reversed the rally. $VRRM bonds fell 9pts on Avis uncertainty.
@GoldmanSachs's desk bias is to sell rallies, with tactical length at wides.
The desk is willing to buy wider spreads while keeping its broader sell-rallies bias.
Next week's calendar includes US midterms, Treasury refunding and October payrolls, alongside heavy supply and AI financing uncertainty.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117042380599967753
Not euphoric
Discretionary investors are essentially neutral on equities, despite S&P 500 earnings growth running at roughly 31%.
Positioning looks unusually cautious relative to the earnings backdrop.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117042791947919712
Discretionary investors are essentially neutral on equities, despite S&P 500 earnings growth running at roughly 31%.
Positioning looks unusually cautious relative to the earnings backdrop.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117042791947919712
👍5
Nothing like price to change sentiment.
Current positioning is consistent with Tech earnings growth of roughly 10%, compared with 47% in Q3 and consensus expectations of 36% by the end of next year.
That's a remarkable amount of pessimism for a sector still delivering incredible growth.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117058106295521363
Current positioning is consistent with Tech earnings growth of roughly 10%, compared with 47% in Q3 and consensus expectations of 36% by the end of next year.
That's a remarkable amount of pessimism for a sector still delivering incredible growth.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117058106295521363
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The midterm tailwind
According to @jpmorgan's Market Intelligence team, history suggests the US midterms could provide a much-needed boost to equities.
Since 1990, the S&P 500 has delivered average gains of 5.4%, 11.4%, 12.5% and 14.7% over the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, with a 100% positive hit rate at 6, 9 and 12 months.
Meanwhile, @jpmorgan argues the recent de-risking is not quite capitulatory, with quant selling and elevated tech positioning still posing risks.
However, widespread deleveraging and momentum exposure collapsing to just 30% of its peak suggest the stage may be set for an alpha rebound.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117293936272445553
According to @jpmorgan's Market Intelligence team, history suggests the US midterms could provide a much-needed boost to equities.
Since 1990, the S&P 500 has delivered average gains of 5.4%, 11.4%, 12.5% and 14.7% over the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, with a 100% positive hit rate at 6, 9 and 12 months.
Meanwhile, @jpmorgan argues the recent de-risking is not quite capitulatory, with quant selling and elevated tech positioning still posing risks.
However, widespread deleveraging and momentum exposure collapsing to just 30% of its peak suggest the stage may be set for an alpha rebound.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2117293936272445553
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