Finally, a forward looking indicator for the markets.
Taiwan and South Korea Chip Exports Lead US Earnings by 6 Months; No Downturn Signal Yet
The average of Taiwan and South Korea export growth, pushed forward six months, closely tracks MSCI US forward 12-month EPS growth.
Both countries are "significant producers of the chips that are the foundation of the AI investment boom" and are released monthly, with South Korea publishing a 10-day estimate around the 21st of each month.
Chip exports are "likely to detect the pullback with about a 3-6 month advance."
Crucially, as of the October 15, 2026 publication, "South Korea and Taiwan's exports currently give little sign that the investment cycle is imminently about to turn down."
When they do turn, that's also a cue for yields to decline since chip exports lead nominal GDP as well.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112384814288613861
Taiwan and South Korea Chip Exports Lead US Earnings by 6 Months; No Downturn Signal Yet
The average of Taiwan and South Korea export growth, pushed forward six months, closely tracks MSCI US forward 12-month EPS growth.
Both countries are "significant producers of the chips that are the foundation of the AI investment boom" and are released monthly, with South Korea publishing a 10-day estimate around the 21st of each month.
Chip exports are "likely to detect the pullback with about a 3-6 month advance."
Crucially, as of the October 15, 2026 publication, "South Korea and Taiwan's exports currently give little sign that the investment cycle is imminently about to turn down."
When they do turn, that's also a cue for yields to decline since chip exports lead nominal GDP as well.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112384814288613861
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Insane.
"Taking the next three years of projected earnings for the S&P and summing them, we can see that its rise has never been higher as far back as we have data for, running at a 40% annual pace."
Earnings growth has NEVER BEEN HIGHER.
Without it, a 10-year yield still over 5% would be a much more serious headwind for multiples.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112394987770134954
"Taking the next three years of projected earnings for the S&P and summing them, we can see that its rise has never been higher as far back as we have data for, running at a 40% annual pace."
Earnings growth has NEVER BEEN HIGHER.
Without it, a 10-year yield still over 5% would be a much more serious headwind for multiples.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112394987770134954
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Ruh roh
@GoldmanSachs: CTA Asymmetry Is 8x, $45bn Selling on 2-Sigma SPX Drop vs $5.5bn Buying on 2-Sigma Rally
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112395153008906551
@GoldmanSachs: CTA Asymmetry Is 8x, $45bn Selling on 2-Sigma SPX Drop vs $5.5bn Buying on 2-Sigma Rally
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112395153008906551
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I like this trade.
@BankofAmerica VIX Nov 19-24 Call Spread at $0.63, 7.9x Max Payout
@BankofAmerica's specific premium-conscious hedge against a VIX spike: buy the VIX November 19-24 call spread for $0.63 indicatively on mids. That's approximately 45-delta / 25-delta strikes, with UXX6 reference at 17.61. Max payout ratio is 7.9x. Risk is limited to the upfront premium paid.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112395433112973536
@BankofAmerica VIX Nov 19-24 Call Spread at $0.63, 7.9x Max Payout
@BankofAmerica's specific premium-conscious hedge against a VIX spike: buy the VIX November 19-24 call spread for $0.63 indicatively on mids. That's approximately 45-delta / 25-delta strikes, with UXX6 reference at 17.61. Max payout ratio is 7.9x. Risk is limited to the upfront premium paid.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112395433112973536
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The last LatAm holdout from Trump’s Monroe Doctrine 2.0
MEXICO PRESIDENT SHEINBAUM: US-TRADE DEAL IS VERY CLOSE
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112554001350975646
MEXICO PRESIDENT SHEINBAUM: US-TRADE DEAL IS VERY CLOSE
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112554001350975646
Financial gonna bottom this week. $XLF
Loads of weekly TD 8 buy candles for the big banks.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112554743969267804
Loads of weekly TD 8 buy candles for the big banks.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112554743969267804
The bears can't stay bearish
The next leg lower finally brought out the bears. As hyperscalers joined the AI selloff, Nasdaq futures open interest increased by a net $1.4bn, with much of the activity coinciding with the October 16 decline.
Nasdaq's funding premium relative to the S&P 500 disappeared, while implied volatility and put skew jumped as traders scrambled for downside protection.
But the bearish conviction didn't last. As Nasdaq stabilized on October 19, relative funding recovered and both volatility and skew retreated.
The market is quick to hedge the downside, but apparently even quicker to abandon those hedges when prices stabilize.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112612466219974994
The next leg lower finally brought out the bears. As hyperscalers joined the AI selloff, Nasdaq futures open interest increased by a net $1.4bn, with much of the activity coinciding with the October 16 decline.
Nasdaq's funding premium relative to the S&P 500 disappeared, while implied volatility and put skew jumped as traders scrambled for downside protection.
But the bearish conviction didn't last. As Nasdaq stabilized on October 19, relative funding recovered and both volatility and skew retreated.
The market is quick to hedge the downside, but apparently even quicker to abandon those hedges when prices stabilize.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112612466219974994
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The AI trade gets dismantled
The AI unwind has become brutal. Nomura's AI Enablers & Hyperscalers basket has fallen 11% over the past week and 12% over the past month, leaving it nearly 20% below its previous quarterly level.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112744346244284510
The AI unwind has become brutal. Nomura's AI Enablers & Hyperscalers basket has fallen 11% over the past week and 12% over the past month, leaving it nearly 20% below its previous quarterly level.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112744346244284510
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FOMO
Investors are reducing equity exposure, but they clearly aren't prepared to miss the next rally. Nomura's McElligott highlights an extraordinary surge in one-week net call demand, with single-stock calls reaching the 100th percentile and ETF calls the 98th percentile on a five-year lookback.
Investors are replacing outright stock exposure with cheaper upside optionality. They want less downside risk, but still fear missing a year-end rally.
The market is de-risking, but the FOMO hasn't disappeared.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112758042932715797
Investors are reducing equity exposure, but they clearly aren't prepared to miss the next rally. Nomura's McElligott highlights an extraordinary surge in one-week net call demand, with single-stock calls reaching the 100th percentile and ETF calls the 98th percentile on a five-year lookback.
Investors are replacing outright stock exposure with cheaper upside optionality. They want less downside risk, but still fear missing a year-end rally.
The market is de-risking, but the FOMO hasn't disappeared.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112758042932715797
$IWO, the Russell 2000 Growth ETF (tech + healthcare, mostly) printed its 2nd highest trading volume of the year only yesterday.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112896824571039937
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112896824571039937
The Memory Meltdown
The three major memory stocks, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, have fallen an average 42% from their recent peaks, according to @jpmorgan.
For perspective, the average drawdown across the previous four major memory downcycles was approximately 49%.
$MU $SKHY
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112939119940882500
The three major memory stocks, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, have fallen an average 42% from their recent peaks, according to @jpmorgan.
For perspective, the average drawdown across the previous four major memory downcycles was approximately 49%.
$MU $SKHY
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2112939119940882500
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Biggest two week net selling ever
According to @Goldmansachs PB, global technology stocks saw the largest two-week net selling on record (10+ years) between October 5 and 16, a staggering 3.3 standard deviations below normal.
Selling was driven by both long liquidations and fresh shorting.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2113008259036827868
According to @Goldmansachs PB, global technology stocks saw the largest two-week net selling on record (10+ years) between October 5 and 16, a staggering 3.3 standard deviations below normal.
Selling was driven by both long liquidations and fresh shorting.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2113008259036827868
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In case you still believed boomer polling, a polling firm just admitted their polls were fake as a social experiment.
The @nytimes, of course, used and promoted their polling data.
LOL. LMAO even.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2113015771081425258
The @nytimes, of course, used and promoted their polling data.
LOL. LMAO even.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2113015771081425258
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This is crazy.
Short sales have outpaced long buying by a staggering 5:1 month-to-date, pushing short leverage close to five-year highs.
We have 44% of all earnings next week including loads of tech companies.
If the Nasdaq can hold the range into earnings and we see some surprises, that's a monster amount of fuel for a squeeze.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2113016867292115053
Short sales have outpaced long buying by a staggering 5:1 month-to-date, pushing short leverage close to five-year highs.
We have 44% of all earnings next week including loads of tech companies.
If the Nasdaq can hold the range into earnings and we see some surprises, that's a monster amount of fuel for a squeeze.
https://x.com/joemccann/status/2113016867292115053
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