🇺🇸 US Jobless Claims Hit Three-Year Low 📉
Applications for US unemployment benefits dropped significantly to 191,000 over the week of Thanksgiving, marking the lowest level in over three years and falling below all economists’ estimates.
However, other metrics paint a more mixed picture: continuing jobless claims remain near 2021 highs, and separate ADP Research reports indicated that companies shed payrolls in November.
The contradictory labor market signals did not significantly alter market expectations as traders continue to price in a near-certain, third-straight 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its meeting this week.
This consensus remains despite the fact that key government employment data for October and November has been delayed until after the meeting due to a government shutdown.
Applications for US unemployment benefits dropped significantly to 191,000 over the week of Thanksgiving, marking the lowest level in over three years and falling below all economists’ estimates.
However, other metrics paint a more mixed picture: continuing jobless claims remain near 2021 highs, and separate ADP Research reports indicated that companies shed payrolls in November.
The contradictory labor market signals did not significantly alter market expectations as traders continue to price in a near-certain, third-straight 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its meeting this week.
This consensus remains despite the fact that key government employment data for October and November has been delayed until after the meeting due to a government shutdown.
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SpaceX is moving forward with plans for an initial public offering (IPO) targeted for mid-to-late 2026, which could potentially raise significantly more than $30 billion, making it the largest listing of all time.
The company is aiming for a massive total valuation of about $1.5 trillion, putting it near the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. This accelerated path to public markets has largely been driven by the robust growth of its Starlink satellite internet service, which is expected to account for the majority of the projected $22 billion to $24 billion in revenue in 2026.
The funds raised from the IPO are partially intended to finance the development of space-based data centers. In a precursor to the public offering, SpaceX has set a share price of around $420 in its current secondary offering, valuing the company above $800 billion and allowing employees to sell approximately $2 billion worth of stock.
While the company has previously considered spinning off Starlink into a separate public entity, the current plans suggest the entire company will pursue the listing.
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BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25bps.
Markets aren't reacting any different as this news is already highly priced in
Markets aren't reacting any different as this news is already highly priced in
What happened (real case)
A 67-year-old retiree walked into the bank to renew his fixed deposit. He ended up being sold by the bank a “retirement plan” funded by a bank loan.
• First policy: he put in $300k cash, and borrowed $700k+ to buy a $1m single premium plan
• Two years later: he bought a second similar $1m policy, borrowed another $700k
• Total loans: $1.4m+ to buy $2m of products
• Problem: interest costs rose, payouts could not cover the loan interest, he eventually surrendered both plans and lost a big chunk of savings
The article also mentioned FIDReC flagged this case. In the end, he only got a partial award because he bought the same product twice despite not fully understanding it.
What to know:
When you use leverage to “invest”, you take on two risks:
1. Market risk (returns not as projected)
2. Loan risk (interest rate can rise, repayments still due regardless of performance)
This combo is what breaks retirees.
Why this matters for my readers who are in their 20s - 40s:
We NEED to have the retirement conversation with our parents. I know as Asians we tend to avoid money talk, but the reality is many scams and mis-selling cases start from something very normal like them going to the bank to “renew their FD”.
3 practical things to share with parents
1. FD day is FD only. If they want to discuss investments, book a separate appointment and bring a trusted family member along
2. Never decide on the spot. Take the info home, sleep on it, and compare options
3. Think about whether you can afford leveraging. Similar to real estate; especially, if it involves a loan.
Bottom line
Before committing to a million-dollar decision, always get a second opinion from someone you trust. It can literally prevent a life-changing mistake.
If you want, share this post with your parents, and if they have an “offer” from the bank that sounds too good to be true, send it to me and I will help you list the right questions to ask.
(General sharing only, not financial advice.)
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/invest/why-a-retiree-suffered-big-losses-after-borrowing-to-buy-2m-of-investment-products
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The Straits Times
Retiree suffered heavy losses after borrowing to buy $2m of investment products
A retiree lost substantial savings after borrowing to buy investment products, highlighting the risks of leveraged investing and unsuitable financial advice. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.
The Federal Reserve delivered a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. The decision came amidst deepening fractures within the central bank, with three FOMC members dissenting from the decision, the first instance of three dissenters since 2019.
The opposition came from both ends of the policy spectrum, with two officials voting to hold rates steady due to inflation concerns, and Governor Stephen Miran arguing for a larger, half-point cut to bolster the labor market.
Inflation fears might rise soon 👀
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Bitcoin just surged +$3,000 in 1 hour and reclaimed $90,000 as $120 million worth of levered shorts were liquidated.
Minutes later, $200 million worth of levered longs were liquidated, with Bitcoin now down to $86,000.
That’s a $140 BILLION swing in market cap in under 2 hours.
Leverage is out of control.
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🇺🇸 US Labor Market Shows Continued Cooling 🥶
US job growth remained sluggish in November as nonfarm payrolls increased by only 64,000, following a massive, revised decline of 105,000 in October.
The unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 4.6%, driven by a surge of people returning to the workforce and a significant increase in long-term unemployment.
While sectors like healthcare and construction saw gains, the overall report highlights a “gradually cooling” labor market that has prompted the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates for three consecutive meetings to mitigate the risk of a further slowdown.
The data, however, carries some uncertainty due to the recent record-long government shutdown, which forced the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to combine the October and November reports.
Despite these technical distortions and split opinions among Fed officials regarding future cuts, bond traders are increasingly betting on a “steepening” yield curve, anticipating that the Fed will need to deliver at least two more rate cuts in 2026 to support the softening economy.
US job growth remained sluggish in November as nonfarm payrolls increased by only 64,000, following a massive, revised decline of 105,000 in October.
The unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 4.6%, driven by a surge of people returning to the workforce and a significant increase in long-term unemployment.
While sectors like healthcare and construction saw gains, the overall report highlights a “gradually cooling” labor market that has prompted the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates for three consecutive meetings to mitigate the risk of a further slowdown.
The data, however, carries some uncertainty due to the recent record-long government shutdown, which forced the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to combine the October and November reports.
Despite these technical distortions and split opinions among Fed officials regarding future cuts, bond traders are increasingly betting on a “steepening” yield curve, anticipating that the Fed will need to deliver at least two more rate cuts in 2026 to support the softening economy.
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Fuels for more rate cuts , but also more uncertainty as rate cuts fuel inflation
LOL what will the Fed do ? : " )
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Over the last 30 years, buying the S&P 500 at the annual market high (unlucky investor) would generate a CAGR of +7.5% while buying at the annual market low (lucky investor) would generate a CAGR of +8.4%.
Over the long run, timing the markets becomes less important than staying invested in the market.
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Some philosophies to understand as well:
We buy a stock when
1) the underlying business is doing WELL (profit and free cashflow) and has low DEBT, and has high economic moat)
2) When the price is UNDERVALUED as compared to it's intrinsic value
An undervalued stock's price can go EVEN LOWER, so be prepared to only buy a stock that you dont need the money for the next 3-5 years.
AAPL (Apple) IV $198 vs Current Price $272 → Overvalued by ~38%
ACC (Accenture) IV $318 vs Current Price $270 → Undervalued by ~15%
AMZN (Amazon) IV $229 vs Current Price $227 → Undervalued by ~1%
CELH (Celsius) IV $84 vs Current Price $42 → Undervalued by ~50%
CPRT (Copart) IV $56 vs Current Price $39 → Undervalued by ~30%
CRWD (CrowdStrike) IV $345 vs Current Price $477 → Overvalued by ~38%
FTNT (Fortinet) IV $92 vs Current Price $80 → Undervalued by ~13%
GOOGL (Google) IV $291 vs Current Price $302 → Overvalued by ~4%
MA (Mastercard) IV $529 vs Current Price $566 → Overvalued by ~7%
META (Meta Platforms) IV $815 vs Current Price $664 → Undervalued by ~19%******
MSFT (Microsoft) IV $544 vs Current Price $484 → Undervalued by ~11%****
NKE (Nike) IV $110 vs Current Price $66 → Undervalued by ~40%
NVDA (NVIDIA) IV $210 vs Current Price $174 → Undervalued by ~17%****
PLTR (Palantir) IV $167 vs Current Price $186 → Overvalued by ~11%
UNH (UnitedHealth) IV $412 vs Current Price $328 → Undervalued by ~20%****
V (Visa) IV $296 vs Current Price $346 → Overvalued by ~17%
Disclaimer!!!!:
Prices are based on recent market levels and can fluctuate daily. Intrinsic Value (IV) figures are personal estimates, not financial advice. This is for discussion and educational purposes only. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
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Santa Claus rally period is officially from 20 Dec to 5
Jan.
Will Santa appear this year?
Since 1950, stocks rally during this period 75% of the time with an average gain of 1.55% in the S&P 500!
Fingers crossed this year!
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🇺🇸 Suspect November Inflation Report Sparks Skepticism 🧑🎓
US consumer price data for November showed a surprising cool-down to a four-year low, but the report was immediately met with deep skepticism from economists.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% from a year ago and was well below expectations. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) admitted that because of the record-long government shutdown, it was unable to collect any price data for October.
To fill the gap, the agency used a “carry-forward” method for several categories, effectively assuming 0% inflation for the month of October.
US consumer price data for November showed a surprising cool-down to a four-year low, but the report was immediately met with deep skepticism from economists.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% from a year ago and was well below expectations. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) admitted that because of the record-long government shutdown, it was unable to collect any price data for October.
To fill the gap, the agency used a “carry-forward” method for several categories, effectively assuming 0% inflation for the month of October.
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📊 December Market Update – US Inflation, China Consumption, Japan Rate Hike 🌏
🇺🇸US – Inflation Hits Multi-Year Lows
Core CPI rose just 2.6% YoY, the slowest since 2021, while jobs rebounded.
Could this be the signal the Fed pauses or pivots on rates? 👀
🇨🇳China Consumption Stalls
Retail sales grew only 1.3% YoY. Exports keep growth alive, but domestic spending lags.
What drives a consumer rebound?
🇯🇵 Japan – BOJ Raises Rates to 30-Year High
The Bank of Japan lifted rates to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, but signalled slow, data-dependent future hikes.
Disclaimer: The information provided above is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Although we have made efforts to verify the source, we cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for your specific financial needs. For more details, please refer to the original source.
🇺🇸US – Inflation Hits Multi-Year Lows
Core CPI rose just 2.6% YoY, the slowest since 2021, while jobs rebounded.
Could this be the signal the Fed pauses or pivots on rates? 👀
🇨🇳China Consumption Stalls
Retail sales grew only 1.3% YoY. Exports keep growth alive, but domestic spending lags.
What drives a consumer rebound?
🇯🇵 Japan – BOJ Raises Rates to 30-Year High
The Bank of Japan lifted rates to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, but signalled slow, data-dependent future hikes.
Disclaimer: The information provided above is for general purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Although we have made efforts to verify the source, we cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for your specific financial needs. For more details, please refer to the original source.
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To all of Justin's Clients,
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!🎄 ✨
Wishing you a holiday season filled with peace, joy, and meaningful time with loved ones.
Thank you for the trust you’ve placed in me and for allowing me to be part of your financial journey.
May the coming year bring you health, happiness, and continued success. Here’s to a prosperous and fulfilling New Year!🎉
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
Wishing you a holiday season filled with peace, joy, and meaningful time with loved ones.
Thank you for the trust you’ve placed in me and for allowing me to be part of your financial journey.
May the coming year bring you health, happiness, and continued success. Here’s to a prosperous and fulfilling New Year!
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Been receiving quite a couple of DMs from clients & friends who saw posts advising people to top-up their SRS to save income tax.
My TL;DR view is: for many young working professionals, there’s usually no rush.
To be clear, I am not saying SRS is bad. But the nuance is often missed: SRS is usually a tax deferral tool, not a tax-free tool.
Yes, you save tax today because SRS contributions reduce your taxable income. But when you withdraw at/after retirement age, 50% of each withdrawal is taxable as income.
Important constraint people usually forget:
1. You can spread withdrawals over a 10-year penalty-free window (useful for tax planning),
2. If you are planning for an alternative source of income in future that is taxable (e.g rental income), we need to note that the SRS withdrawals + future income may lead to higher taxes payable,
3. And if your SRS grows too big, your annual withdrawals can become large enough to trigger income tax anyway,
4. Lastly, in a small % chance, as with all government initiatives, they are subjected to future policy changes.
Simple example (to illustrate):
• If you’re 30 and you max $15,300/year for ~30 years, and it compounds at ~8%, you can end up with ~ $1.7m by 62/63.
• Withdraw over 10 years = about $170k/year. Only half is taxable, but that’s still ~$85k taxable income every year, which likely means you’ll pay income tax (based on today’s brackets).
So my point isn’t “don’t do SRS”. Probably just don’t blindly max it early.
A (probably) better way to think about it: plan backwards.
• Rough sizing idea: decide your retirement withdrawal target first. If you want SRS withdrawals to stay tax-light, aim for a balance where your yearly withdrawal stays modest.
• For example, withdrawing $40k/year means only $20k is taxable (because 50% is taxable), which may fall within the tax-free tier if you don’t have other taxable income.
If you want a “tax relief + retirement” move to consider first:
• CPF cash top-ups can give up to $8k self + $8k family tax relief (subject to rules), and CPF withdrawals are not taxable.
(General sharing only, not financial/tax advice. Tax rules may change. Feel free to DM me to discuss.)
Image source: Stashaway
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