For AIA Altitude clients , pls see your email for your exclusive invitation for BTS World Tour in London (flight and accoms u need settle urselves tho)
Pm me if u need help 🔥☀️
Pm me if u need help 🔥☀️
🚢 Hormuz Standoff Eases Slightly As Oil Markets Remain on Edge 🛢
The U.S. declared its offensive military operation against Iran as officially over after 66 days of strikes, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing a shift toward protecting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump also announced a brief pause in “Project Freedom,” a U.S.-led effort to escort stranded vessels through the strait, to allow time for a potential peace agreement to be finalized.
The moves signal growing pressure on the administration to wind down a conflict that has already killed thousands in Iran and is bumping up against the 60-day limit imposed by the War Powers Act.
Despite the ceasefire rhetoric, a cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile the same day Rubio spoke, and Iran’s president flatly rejected new negotiations as “impossible” under current conditions.
A durable resolution that reopens the strait could deliver meaningful relief on energy prices and ease the inflationary pressure that’s been keeping the Federal Reserve on hold.
The U.S. declared its offensive military operation against Iran as officially over after 66 days of strikes, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing a shift toward protecting commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump also announced a brief pause in “Project Freedom,” a U.S.-led effort to escort stranded vessels through the strait, to allow time for a potential peace agreement to be finalized.
The moves signal growing pressure on the administration to wind down a conflict that has already killed thousands in Iran and is bumping up against the 60-day limit imposed by the War Powers Act.
Despite the ceasefire rhetoric, a cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile the same day Rubio spoke, and Iran’s president flatly rejected new negotiations as “impossible” under current conditions.
A durable resolution that reopens the strait could deliver meaningful relief on energy prices and ease the inflationary pressure that’s been keeping the Federal Reserve on hold.
In March, job openings dipped slightly to 6.87 million but remained stable, while the hiring rate jumped back to 3.5% after an unusually weak February, echoing the solid March jobs report that showed employers added 178,000 positions.
Notably, initial unemployment insurance claims fell in late April to their lowest level since 1969, suggesting that high-profile layoffs at companies like Meta, Coinbase, and Nike haven’t yet translated into broad-based job losses.
The labor market remains in a “low-hire, low-fire” mode: jobs aren’t being lost at an alarming rate, but opportunities aren’t abundant either.
The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers sits at 0.9, meaning there are now slightly more job seekers than open positions, a stark reversal from the 2-to-1 ratio in 2022’s hiring boom.
The Fed is watching closely, and a stable labor market gives it less urgency to cut interest rates. Friday’s April jobs report will be the next key data point to watch.
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For the first time since April 2023, inflation is running ahead of wage growth in America, and the culprit is the gas pump. Regular gasoline is averaging about $4.50 a gallon nationally, up more than 50% since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, pushing overall inflation to 3.8% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, average hourly wages grew just 3.6% over the same period, resulting in a 0.3% decline in real (inflation-adjusted) hourly earnings.
This dynamic helps explain why consumer sentiment has fallen to record lows. Workers are putting in slightly longer hours in April, softening the blow. If fuel prices stay elevated, and wage growth continues to slow, the squeeze on household budgets could become a meaningful drag on consumer spending.
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The U.S. bond market just had its worst week in a year, and the selloff is rippling globally. Thirty-year Treasury yields are approaching 5%, a level not seen in two decades, as war-driven oil prices push inflation expectations sharply higher.
The 10-year yield surged about a quarter-point last week to 4.59%, and traders have now fully priced in a Fed rate hike by March, a sharp reversal from late February, when markets were expecting two rate cuts in 2026.
Last week’s 30-year Treasury auction, the first to price at 5% since 2007, drew mediocre demand, signaling that investors are demanding a bigger premium to hold U.S. government debt.
The rout has also spread to bond markets in the UK and Japan, with G7 finance ministers set to address the selloff at their upcoming meeting.
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Rising long-term Treasury yields are the benchmark for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, meaning further pain in bonds could translate into higher rates on home loans and tighter credit conditions across the economy.
Inflation, currently at 3.8% annually, could hit 4% in the next reading, according to some strategists, the highest since 2023. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil prices stay elevated, the pressure on bonds is unlikely to relent.
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🛢 Hormuz Deadlock Deepens Despite Trump-Xi Summit 🇨🇳
Despite Trump’s two-day summit with China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing, no concrete progress was made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran signaled it intends to maintain some degree of control over the waterway even after a peace deal, with President Pezeshkian suggesting navigation will only normalize once the conflict ends while offering no timeline or concrete terms.
China and the U.S. found rare common ground in calling for the strait to reopen, but Beijing continues to buy Iranian oil and has ordered its companies to ignore U.S. sanctions..
Brent crude has now jumped roughly 50% since the war began, and a brief recovery in ship movements through the strait has already faded as vessel owners remain cautious.
Bloomberg Economics warned Friday that negotiations are deadlocked, sporadic violence continues, and the economic costs of the prolonged closure are mounting, concluding that “a return to open conflict is likely.”
With U.S. midterm elections in November, Trump is facing political pressure to bring down energy prices and wind down what has become an increasingly unpopular war, but Iran has shown little urgency to deal.
The nuclear question, technically the war’s stated justification, has been quietly shelved to a later stage of talks, underscoring just how far the two sides remain from any comprehensive agreement.
More volatility ahead👀
Despite Trump’s two-day summit with China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing, no concrete progress was made toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran signaled it intends to maintain some degree of control over the waterway even after a peace deal, with President Pezeshkian suggesting navigation will only normalize once the conflict ends while offering no timeline or concrete terms.
China and the U.S. found rare common ground in calling for the strait to reopen, but Beijing continues to buy Iranian oil and has ordered its companies to ignore U.S. sanctions..
Brent crude has now jumped roughly 50% since the war began, and a brief recovery in ship movements through the strait has already faded as vessel owners remain cautious.
Bloomberg Economics warned Friday that negotiations are deadlocked, sporadic violence continues, and the economic costs of the prolonged closure are mounting, concluding that “a return to open conflict is likely.”
With U.S. midterm elections in November, Trump is facing political pressure to bring down energy prices and wind down what has become an increasingly unpopular war, but Iran has shown little urgency to deal.
The nuclear question, technically the war’s stated justification, has been quietly shelved to a later stage of talks, underscoring just how far the two sides remain from any comprehensive agreement.
More volatility ahead
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SpaceX is expected to go public around June 12 in what could be the largest IPO in history, with a valuation expected to exceed $1.5 trillion. The company’s regulatory filing revealed over $11 billion in revenue last year from Starlink satellite internet, plus $4 billion from its space launch operations.
The catch is that losses are growing: SpaceX posted a net loss of nearly $4.9 billion in 2025, accelerating into 2026 as the company pours money into Starship development, lunar ambitions, and an AI data center buildout at xAI.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the deal, with roughly $80 billion in shares to allocate across 23 investment banks.
SpaceX is reportedly considering selling a higher-than-usual percentage to retail investors, but most individual buyers will either receive a fraction of what they request or nothing at all.
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🇺🇸 US Consumer Sentiment Slides to Record Low on Price Concerns📉
American consumers are more pessimistic than at any point on record, according to the University of Michigan’s final May sentiment reading, which fell below every economist’s forecast and well below April’s already-weak reading.
The driver is clear: gasoline prices above $4.50 a gallon, up more than 50% since the Iran war began in late February, are hammering household budgets. A striking 57% of consumers spontaneously cited high prices as eroding their personal finances, up from 50% the prior month.
Both the current conditions and expectations sub-indexes hit all-time lows, and even Republicans and political independents, groups that had been more optimistic earlier in Trump’s second term, saw sentiment drop to its weakest readings yet.
Consumers now expect prices to rise 4.8% over the next year and 3.9% annually over the next five to ten years, the highest long-run reading in seven months.
That matters enormously because entrenched inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, as workers demand higher wages and businesses feel justified in raising prices.
American consumers are more pessimistic than at any point on record, according to the University of Michigan’s final May sentiment reading, which fell below every economist’s forecast and well below April’s already-weak reading.
The driver is clear: gasoline prices above $4.50 a gallon, up more than 50% since the Iran war began in late February, are hammering household budgets. A striking 57% of consumers spontaneously cited high prices as eroding their personal finances, up from 50% the prior month.
Both the current conditions and expectations sub-indexes hit all-time lows, and even Republicans and political independents, groups that had been more optimistic earlier in Trump’s second term, saw sentiment drop to its weakest readings yet.
Consumers now expect prices to rise 4.8% over the next year and 3.9% annually over the next five to ten years, the highest long-run reading in seven months.
That matters enormously because entrenched inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, as workers demand higher wages and businesses feel justified in raising prices.
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The U.S. is experiencing one of the most striking disconnects in financial history. Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest level in 70 years of survey data, 10% below even the grim June 2022 inflation peak, while the S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive weekly gain and the Dow hit back-to-back record closes.
Making the divergence even more striking is valuation: the S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio stands at 40.8, a level only seen once before in 145 years of data, during the dot-com bubble of 2000.
Economists offer three possible explanations for the gap, and all three may be simultaneously true. First, stocks may simply be wrong, dangerously disconnected from economic reality and headed for a sharp correction.
Second, markets may be looking past current pain toward a future where the Iran war ends, inflation eases, and growth rebounds, essentially pricing in an optimistic scenario consumers can’t yet see.
Third, AI may be the common thread driving both trends at once: a world where companies use AI to slash labor costs and widen profit margins is fantastic for shareholders, but deeply unsettling for workers worried about their jobs.
What do yall think ? DM me we can discuss
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The AI memory boom is reaching new heights. SK Hynix surged 11% Wednesday, crossing a $1 trillion market cap and posting a staggering 1,000%-plus gain over the past 12 months, while Micron soared 19% Tuesday, its best day since 2011.
Samsung crossed the $1 trillion threshold earlier this month, meaning all three dominant makers of high-bandwidth memory chips now sit in the trillion-dollar club simultaneously.
Together, they control the critical bottleneck of the global AI buildout, with SK Hynix alone commanding 57% of high-bandwidth memory market share. Analysts and investors expect the memory shortage to persist through at least 2027, giving these companies unusual and sustained pricing power over the world’s largest tech firms.
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Objective Finance wishes you and your loved ones a peaceful Vesak Day.
May this day bring you stillness, clarity, and gratitude, and may the rest of the year ahead be filled with good health and abundance. 🙏
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Interesting start of the month and week 👀
🚨 Impt Indicators to take note of:
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Above 50: Economy expanding, Below 50: Economy contracting)
• Initial Jobless Claims (Key leading indicator to gauge the overall health of the labor market)
• Unemployment Rate
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Above 50: Economy expanding, Below 50: Economy contracting)
• Initial Jobless Claims (Key leading indicator to gauge the overall health of the labor market)
• Unemployment Rate
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On average, the price of a new IPO stock drops 50% in the first 12 months, even for great businesses.
Credits: Adam Khoo
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🤔 AI Bubble 🫧 or Breakthrough 📈?
If you've been following the headlines, you've probably noticed something that feels off: markets are hitting record highs (the S&P 500 just notched its 24th record of the year) - at the same time as an ongoing war in the Middle East. A lot of my clients & retail investors are asking the same thing: is this AI boom the real deal, or a bubble waiting to pop?
Here's my honest take 👇
It's the real deal. However, it's narrow.
This rally is being driven almost entirely by AI infrastructure - chipmakers like Nvidia, Micron and Broadcom, instead of the broad economy. Semiconductors alone account for more than half of the market's gains this year, and more than $40 of every $100 invested now flows into just 10 companies 🤯.
So when you hear "the market is up," it's really a handful of names doing the heavy lifting. The demand behind them is genuine (hence the breakthrough) - but leaning on so few names is exactly where the risk sits (the bubble).
The S&P is also historically expensive.
On a long-term valuation measure, the S&P 500 is the 2nd most expensive it has been in 69 years‼️(only the dot-com peak in 2000 was higher).
• What that does NOT mean: a crash tomorrow. Expensive markets can stay expensive for a long time.
• What it DOES mean: more modest expected returns from here, and a thinner margin for error if something surprises us - like the Iran conflict, which is keeping oil elevated and inflation sticky.
So what should you actually do?
Not panic, and try not to time the top either. The smarter move is making sure your portfolio is positioned for more than just the best-case scenario, because right now the market is largely priced for the best case.
Here's the thing most people get backwards: the best time to review a portfolio is when you're ahead - not after the curveball hits. Anyone can sell in a panic. Repositioning from a position of strength, while you're still up, is what actually protects the gains you've worked for.
So if you've been riding this rally, let's spend 20 minutes making sure you get to keep more of it. I'll show you exactly where the concentration risk sits in your own holdings and what a more resilient setup could look like - no pressure to change anything, just clarity.
Reply with "review" and I'll send you a message. 📈
This is a general market view and not personalised advice! I’ll tailor everything to your situation when we chat 🫶
If you've been following the headlines, you've probably noticed something that feels off: markets are hitting record highs (the S&P 500 just notched its 24th record of the year) - at the same time as an ongoing war in the Middle East. A lot of my clients & retail investors are asking the same thing: is this AI boom the real deal, or a bubble waiting to pop?
Here's my honest take 👇
It's the real deal. However, it's narrow.
This rally is being driven almost entirely by AI infrastructure - chipmakers like Nvidia, Micron and Broadcom, instead of the broad economy. Semiconductors alone account for more than half of the market's gains this year, and more than $40 of every $100 invested now flows into just 10 companies 🤯.
So when you hear "the market is up," it's really a handful of names doing the heavy lifting. The demand behind them is genuine (hence the breakthrough) - but leaning on so few names is exactly where the risk sits (the bubble).
The S&P is also historically expensive.
On a long-term valuation measure, the S&P 500 is the 2nd most expensive it has been in 69 years‼️(only the dot-com peak in 2000 was higher).
• What that does NOT mean: a crash tomorrow. Expensive markets can stay expensive for a long time.
• What it DOES mean: more modest expected returns from here, and a thinner margin for error if something surprises us - like the Iran conflict, which is keeping oil elevated and inflation sticky.
So what should you actually do?
Not panic, and try not to time the top either. The smarter move is making sure your portfolio is positioned for more than just the best-case scenario, because right now the market is largely priced for the best case.
Here's the thing most people get backwards: the best time to review a portfolio is when you're ahead - not after the curveball hits. Anyone can sell in a panic. Repositioning from a position of strength, while you're still up, is what actually protects the gains you've worked for.
So if you've been riding this rally, let's spend 20 minutes making sure you get to keep more of it. I'll show you exactly where the concentration risk sits in your own holdings and what a more resilient setup could look like - no pressure to change anything, just clarity.
Reply with "review" and I'll send you a message. 📈
This is a general market view and not personalised advice! I’ll tailor everything to your situation when we chat 🫶
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