🇮🇱⚡- Israeli elections:

Votes counted: 84.66%

• Likud-bloc - 54 seats
- Likud: 27
- Shas: 7
- Otzma Yehudit: 7
- Yahadut HaTorah: 7
- Tkuma: 6

• Yashar-bloc - 49 seats
- Yashar: 22
- B'Yachad: 12
- Democrats: 8
- Yisrael Beiteinu: 7

• Arab coalition - 17 seats
- Joint List: 11
- Ra'am: 6

• Other
- Amcha Israel: 0
- Reservists and the Economic Party: 0
- Noam: 0

🇮🇱⚡- Israeli elections:

Votes counted: 93.1%

• Likud-bloc - 53 seats
- Likud: 27
- Shas: 6
- Otzma Yehudit: 7
- Yahadut HaTorah: 7
- Tkuma: 6

• Yashar-bloc - 48 seats
- Yashar: 21
- B'Yachad: 12
- Democrats: 8
- Yisrael Beiteinu: 7

• Arab coalition - 19 seats
- Joint List: 12
- Ra'am: 7

• Other
- Amcha Israel: 0
- Reservists and the Economic Party: 0
- Noam: 0

🇮🇱 - Israeli elections outcome:

- Likud bloc: 53 seats (Likud 27, Otzma Yehudit 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 6, Tkuma 6)
- Yashar bloc: 48 seats (Yashar 21, B’Yachad 12, The Democrats 8, Yisrael Beiteinu 7)
- Arab parties: 19 seats (Joint List 12, Ra’am 7)
- Others: 0 seats (the remaining parties wasted an estimated 3–4 seats worth of votes below the threshold)

With no bloc reaching 61 seats, neither side has a majority to form a government. The deadlock leaves several possible scenarios.

Option 1: A unity government

This would resemble the Netanyahu–Gantz government of 2020. Reports last week claimed President Trump has pushed for such an arrangement, under which Netanyahu would serve the first half of the term before retiring, with Gadi Eisenkot leading for the remainder.

The obstacles:
- Eisenkot has ruled out serving in government with Netanyahu, though not with Likud itself. However, it is very unlikely that Likud will replace Netanyahu.
- Eisenkot will not sit with Ben-Gvir or Smotrich because of their far-right rhetoric, which rules out Otzma Yehudit and Tkuma.
- Eisenkot and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu will not join a government with the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. Lieberman is one of the strongest advocates of universal conscription, which both parties fiercely oppose.
- Likud will not join a government with The Democrats, given Yair Golan’s support for a two-state solution.

That leaves one unity configuration: Likud without Netanyahu (27), Yashar (21), B’Yachad (12) and Yisrael Beiteinu (7). That comes to 67 seats, comfortably enough to govern. However, a configuration very unlikely, ruling out a unity government.

Option 2: A minority government

- A Likud minority government is impossible. Even if the entire Likud bloc (53 seats) voted in favour, and even assuming three defections from Eisenkot’s camp, it would reach only 56. The opposition, made up of the remaining 45 seats (=48-3) of Eisenkot’s camp and the 19 Arab seats, would total 64.

Could Eisenkot form a minority government instead? It’s a realistic scenario, but a very risky one.

- Eisenkot trails the Likud bloc by five seats, so he needs six votes from outside his camp to outvote it. Ra’am has joined Israeli-led coalitions before, most notably the Bennett–Lapid government in 2021. The Joint List has also openly discussed backing any arrangement that removes the Likud bloc from power, whether by abstaining or even voting for an Eisenkot minority government. However, the Arab nationalist Balad, part of the Joint List, has previously ruled out formally joining a coalition with Israeli parties.

What it could look like: the Yashar bloc (48), assuming two defectors from the Likud camp, most of Ra’am (6) and even two Joint List seats, giving 58 seats. If the remaining 10 Joint List members abstained, the Likud bloc couldn’t defeat it even at its full strength of 53. Eisenkot would win the confidence vote and become prime minister.

The risk: a large majority of Yashar, and all of Yisrael Beiteinu, strongly oppose working with the Arab parties. Even if they accept the Arab parties abstaining (which some extremist members do not), this scenario would require around half a dozen Arab votes in favour, which could trigger mass defections within the Yashar camp. Several members could break away and sit as independents or, worse, join Likud, potentially pushing the Likud bloc past 61 seats.

Option 3: A second election

The likely outcome is no government is formed. Negotiations keep failing because, for both sides, the risks far outweigh the rewards, and a second election is called for April 2027.

Throughout the process, Benjamin Netanyahu assumes the role of a caretaker prime minister, a position from which he could launch military operations on several fronts and push his approval ratings back up in time for April.

🇺🇸🇧🇷⚡- Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro has arrived in Florida, fleeing Lula da Silva's regime in Brazil.

Lula, who is supported by the Arabs, homosexuals, and the Russians, won the October 25 runoff elections.

🇪🇸⚡️- 64 dead and nearly 200 wounded following a massive train accident in Spain.

🇮🇱⚡- Likud has released a statement stating the elections were "stolen".

"The elections in the State of Israel were stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism and the elimination of the Jewish state, through serious criminal offences including bribery, threats, violence, forgery, and the use of prohibited software to drive voter turnout.

The Likud party is handing over to the police, the Shin Bet and the Central Elections Committee hundreds of testimonies and pieces of evidence of election theft at many Arab polling stations: thousands of envelopes containing cash and Ra’am ballot slips, threats and violence against polling station staff, multiple voters behind the voting screen, voting under duplicate identities, discrepancies between the number of envelopes and the number of voters, the use of prohibited turnout software, and more.

We demand that the police and the Shin Bet conduct a thorough investigation into the theft of the elections by the Arab parties and bring the offenders to justice.

We demand that the Elections Committee immediately address the investigation of these criminal offences, which have severely harmed the integrity of Israel’s elections and their results.

This is a grave blow to Israeli democracy and to the voting rights of Israel’s citizens. The law enforcement agencies must act firmly and immediately."

🇺🇸🇮🇱⚡- "I initially received concerning reports about Netanyahu's chances, but his situation is now very good, and my support has made a huge difference," - President Trump to Axios.

🇺🇸🇮🇱⚡- "I haven't yet considered intervening to help form a national unity government led by Netanyahu, and I will take a look at that," - President Trump to Axios.

🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡- "The military will implement any decision made regarding Iran," - Israel Katz, Defense Minister of Israel, responding to Gadi Eisenkot’s accusation yesterday that Netanyahu is using Israel’s security to boost his poll numbers.

🇳🇴🇫🇮🇷🇺⚡️- According to the Financial Times, the call was not "frank and substantive" as RIA Novosti claimed. The call, initially planned to last 20 minutes, was dragged on for nearly 90 minutes as Vladimir Putin reportedly ranted about Slavic history during most of the exchange.

🇷🇺🇪🇹⚡- Russia has delivered a batch of 12 Su-35 fighter jets to Ethiopia a year earlier than expected. Addis Ababa has stated they are also expecting the delivery of four S-400 air defense batteries soon too.

Meanwhile, Iran has been awaiting its orders of both for 12+ years.

🇩🇿🇳🇪🇱🇾⚡- Saddam Haftar led Libyan National Army convoys have been moving towards the Libya-Algeria-Niger border over the past 48 hours.

🇳🇪🇹🇩⚡- Niger accuses Chad of carrying out a drone strike on the Agadez region of eastern Niger, which killed two civilians. Chad denies it carried out the attack.

🇮🇱⚡- "Israeli opposition candidate Yair Lapid is working to encourage members from the Likud camp to defect, using his connections within the party," - Israel Hayom.

🇮🇱⚡- "Several Knesset members from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party opposed the swearing-in of a government with Arab abstentions [let alone Arab seats joining the coalition]," - Amit Segal of Israeli Channel 12.

🇺🇸🇫🇷⚡️- After 11 days, the mayor of Limoges says he has not received any call or message from Emmanuel Macron to support him after losing his town hall. However, the mayor did receive a supportive email from Vice-President J.D. Vance.

🇺🇸🇧🇷⚡️- BREAKING: Flavio Bolsonaro declares himself Brazil's president-elect. He accuses Lula and the Brazilian Supreme Court of carrying mass voter fraud and stealing the presidential election.

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- Vice President JD Vance has sent a letter to Iran’s SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaee. The letter, ordered by President Trump, is an effort to revive negotiations and secure peace with Iran, according to the WSJ.

U.S. officials believe that reaching out directly to hardliners in Iran could open a path to diplomacy, something that has not been done previously.