Good morning

HAWKISH FED, BULLISH MARKET
US mkt down as Fed minutes show more hikes
US bond yield, Dollar, Brent remain benign
Back home, FII buying now averaging $250 m
Nifty within 3.5% of life time high
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Weekly options expiry, momentum with bulls
Huge build-up at 17,900 and 17,800 Puts
Going by options data, first support for Nifty at 17,860
Risk-reward will be favourable if Nifty dips close to 17,860
17,780 sacrosanct in unlikely event of 17,860 being breached
On upside, Calls data suggests some resistance at 18,000
Possible that intra-day rally tops out around 18,000
Matter of when and not if Nifty conquers 18,000
Bank Nifty may outperform after 2 days of consolidation

Morning low so far: 17,863. I spoke about a strong risk-reward near 17,860. Also the Bank Nifty has outperformed. So trade setup has played out. Now we see if morning lows hold or not.

As a trade if you respected your risk-reward, you should be done for the day and be enjoying :)

Good morning

TRADE SETUP
“Buy on dips” played out from sacrosanct levels
Yesterday’s recovery was aided by expiry factors
Risk-reward now not in favour of longs
Market due for one dip which won’t be bought
First support: 5 day exponential moving average of 17,818
Major support: 10 day exponential moving average of 17,621
Intra-day rallies will find resistance at 17,950-18,000
IT Index at make or break level
Bank Nifty remains the strongest big index

Today, I warned that risk-reward didn't favour longs. Every day is dfferent

Second day running, the setup has worked beautifully

Podcast

Good morning

TRADE SETUP
Big question: Has the market made a lower top?
Dollar Index at 108.3, very close to recent highs
Some Fed members hawkish ahead of Jackson Hole
Alert: Jackson Hole symposium on Aug 25-27
Nifty closed below 5 DEMA, next to watch is 10 DEMA
Alert: 10 DEMA at 17,645 and 20 DEMA at 17,317
FIIs buy in cash, create hedges via selling Index futures
Friday: Market leading Index Bank Nifty led fall
Nasdaq showing reversal sign from 200 DMA
Indian market has shown strong correlation with Nasdaq

Good morning

GLOBAL CUES: HEADWINDS GALORE!
Dollar, Bond yields and Crude all higher
Dollar Index very close to 52 week high
Bond yields in US cross the 3% threshold
Brent crude crosses $97/bbl mark
Big question: Will Nifty take support at 20 DMA of 17,340?

TRADE SETUP
Fear factor is back, US Volatility Index up 16%
Nifty sitting at 33% retracement of June-Aug rally
Any bounce on Nifty must sustain above 17,465
Close below 17,465 opens 20 DMA of 17,340
50% retracement of current rally at 17,220
FIIs have sold in 2 out of last 3 days
Bank Nifty has led the fall which is a big negative
Bank Nifty’s level to watch: 20 DMA zone of 37,950-38,050
US market showing classical sign of end of bear mkt rally
Indian market has been stronger than most
A close below 17,220 would confirm fresh downtrend

NIfty's low 17345 vs 20 DMA level of 17,340