Good morning.

Replugging yesterday piece. Share it if you like it.

Good morning

THE 20 DMA BREAK
Nifty has broken below the 20 DMA
Most major indices also below 20 DMA
Signs that market has started a correction
On Friday, 2 rallies were brutally sold into
Global picture has become murky

GLOBAL CUES: IMPACT ON INDIA
Nasdaq has shown signs of testing previous lows
Nasdaq is the leader for world equity markets
Bond yield and Dollar Index still not too bad
Indian market will again have to deal with weak IT

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s texture is now “Sell on rally”
18300, 18,400 and 18500 Calls add 1.1 cr shares
18,300-18,350 will be good zone to short
Stop loss for short trades will be around 18,441
First support for Nifty at 50 DEMA of 18,200
Major support for Nifty at 50 DMA of 18,080
Below 18,000, Nifty will have a major breakdown

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty protected 20 DEMA on close
Bank Nifty not yet a short till it holds 20 DEMA
Alert: 20 DEMA on Bank Nifty at 43,157
No trade on Bank Nifty in 43,150-43,500 band
Trades on Bank Nifty only below 43,150 or above 43,500

Have been on leave this week but the setup has been playing out beautifully if you had positional approach. Have a good day. See you all on Monday now.

Good morning

TRADE SETUP
Cash Market Flows:
FII -707 Cr
DII +3399 Cr

FIIs Sell 551 Cr in Index Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Long -570
Short +6012

FIIs in Index Futures
Long 44%
Short 56%

Nifty Put Call Ratio at 0.72

FEAR FACTOR GRIPS MARKET
Market is falling under its own weight
Covid was an excuse, not a reason
Market was overbought, now oversold
Big question remains if Nifty will fall to 200 DMA
Market’s texture has been “Sell on rally”
Normally such markets bottom out in intra-day fall

GLOBAL CUES: IMPACT ON INDIA
Nasdaq is within 4-5% of 52-w low
US 10-year yield has moved to 3.75
US yield had fallen to 3.4 in early December
Market is worried about terminal rate again
Midcaps and Small Caps butchered last week
Midcaps underperform in rising rates

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First rally will most likely be sold into
Too late to take any short positions now
Nifty is sitting at a major trendline support
At some point today, Nifty might see big rally
Today’s best strategy is to wait for panic
Today, levels do not matter, market action does
Whenever panic ends, buying with 50-point stop will work
Good chance to see market close in the green today
Need to monitor market breadth

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty still remains leader for market
Too late to take any short positions now
This month: Nifty down 5.1%, Bank Nifty down 3.6%
This year: Nifty up 2.6%, Bank Nifty up 17.5%
Any recovery in market will be led by Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty can easily rally 500 points on short covering
Again, wait for panic to end before buying

The setup has played out already for intra-day traders.

Now up to you whether to book, trail or carry.

Bank Nifty has seen exact 500 point rally from lows

Today I am very happy. So many of you have tweeted about benefitting from morning commentary 🙏

Good morning

Sorry got late

This was the Nifty and Bank Nifty setup

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty likely to test 10 DEMA of 18,230
For today, buying any small dip will work
For day longs, 17,980 will be strict stop
Yesterday’s longs should book around 18,150
Today’s longs should book from 18,200-18,230
Fresh shorting only if Nifty breaks 17,950

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first trade on Bank Nifty is to book profit
42,820-42,900 is 10 and 20 DEMA zone for Bank Nifty
After profit booking, step aside and see how it moves
Fin Nifty weekly expiry today, keep an eye on HDFC twins