THANK GOD ITS FRIDAY
Global markets showing some signs of relief
Big question remains if this is a Lehman moment
Back home, important to see TCS stock today
Market has given enough hints of big correction
16,750-16,800 zone is most critical zone

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Big rally in Nasdaq, ended at day’s highest point
Nasdaq back above 10,20 and 50 DEMA
Nifty IT has not moved in line with Nasdaq recently
Market worried about BFSI segment for IT cos
Big decline in US Bond yields is a big positive

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 6 month channel chart again))
Every long trader has kept stop loss at 16,750-16,800
Good chance that Nifty will eventually hit stop losses
Nifty has fallen 10% from top but has been slow grind
For today, need to see first hour high and low
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,100-17,150, stop loss: 17,225
Buy trades need to keep first hour low as stop loss

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has become extremely weak
Needs to cross 39,700 to negate bearishness
Sell zone: 39,400-39,500, stop loss: 39,700
Buy trades need to keep first hour low as stop loss

GM

BEMAUSAM BARSAAT!
Maharashtra: Crops spread over 66,000 hectares destroyed
Marathwada and Nashik are most affected regions
Rural demand might be in for a big hit this year
Stocks like M&M have collapsed in last one month

BIG EVENTS AHEAD
FOMC meet begins today, 25 bps priced in
Market’s 2 outliers: Pause or 50 bps rate hike
Fin Nifty’s weekly options expiry today

GLOBAL CUES: IMPACT ON INDIA
Russia Index, Crude indicating good news on Russia-Ukraine front
Crude’s decline will be eventually a big positive for India macro
Dollar Index and Bond yields have cooled off
Rupee has been strong despite record FII selling
Need to see if Nifty IT bottoms out or not
Wipro at 52-w low, Infosys and TCS almost there

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Market selling off in first half, recovering in last hour
Texture remains “Sell on rally” and cover at lower levels
Sell zone today: 17,066-17,146, stop loss: 17,185
17,066 is yesterday’s open and high level
17,146 is Friday’s intra-day high
17,185 represents max pain of Call writer at 17000 and 17100
Covering zone for Nifty shorts: 16,800-16,850
Almost every long trader has stop loss at 16,800
High risk that 16,800 will break decisively

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank led late recovery
Need to see how these 2 stocks react today
Bank Nifty has been rejecting 200 DMA repeatedly
Current 200 DMA at 39,650
Sell zone: 39,550-39,750, stop loss: 39,915
39,915 represents high of March 15
Covering zone for shorts: 38,900-39,100
Buying will resume only if Index sustains above 40,000

GM

D DAY FOR MARKETS
One of the most important days of the year
US Fed outcome and language will be the key
Most markets trading with hope ahead of Fed decision
Indian markets finally sustained a rally yesterday
Rally likely to continue in the first half today
In second half traders need to take a bold call

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq is up 6.5% in last 7 sessions
Nifty IT is down 5% in last 7 sessions
Nasdaq is pricing in a pause soon from Fed
Nifty IT is pricing in major Banking debacle in US
Best case scenario for market is 25 bps hike today
Dollar Index and Bond yields have cooled further

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Nifty 6-month channel))
Nifty now in a very crucial zone
Big resistance lined up between 17,145-17,225
Strong shorts will cover only on close above 17,225
Strong bears will add shorts in 17,100-17,200 zone
Above 17,225, Nifty has no resistance till 17,500
On downside, first support at yesterday’s low of 17,016
Biggest support for Nifty at 16,750-16,800

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank had very strong follow through
Bank Nifty has shown strong closing in last 2-3 days
Bank Nifty’s texture has become “Buy on dips”
Stop loss for Bank Nifty longs now at 39,366 (Yesterday’s low)
Big resistance for Bank Nifty now at 40,200
Biggest decision today will be whether to carry longs or not
If carrying longs overnight, hedge via Put options

GM

HUGE WEEK FOR BANK NIFTY
Bank Nifty made a weekly inside Bar last week
Bank Nifty poised for a big 1500-2000 points move
Previous week’s range: 38613-40690
Nifty repeatedly defending 16,800 as last line of defence
Broader market has seen lot of pain

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq has climbed over all moving averages
Big differential between Nasdaq and Nifty IT
Nifty IT below all major moving averages
US 10-year yield has slipped further to 3.38
At some point, IT stocks will become great bargain
For now IT stocks remain “Sell on rally”

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Recent low of 16,828 now Lakshman Rekha for bulls
Break of 16,750-16,800 will lead to a bigger fall
On upside, need to cross 17,225 to force short covering
Any rally to 17,150-17,200 will be used to add shorts
Sell zone today: 17,150-17,200, stop: 17,240
Buying to be done only if Nifty shows stability

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance on Bank Nifty: 39,767
39,767 is Friday high and 200 DMA
Major resistance on Bank Nifty: 40,201
40,201 is last week’s high
Sell zone: 39,700-39,900, stop loss: 40,100
Buy zone: 39,200-39,400, stop loss: 38,940

GM

GM

NIFTY: MAKE OR BREAK
((Chart))
2 days of back to back expiry days start today
Monthly expiry tomorrow, trend is very weak
Yesterday, 5 minutes were enough to spoil entire day
Market’s texture “Sell on rally” till 17,225
Shorts will cover only if 17,225 crossed with volumes
Nifty not reflecting the true pain in the market
Market breadth has been extremely poor
Yesterday, Advance/decline was at 1:4

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Banking fears ease in US but market not convinced
Nasdaq closed at day’s low, Dow closed off highs
Dollar Index has eased, Rupee has been strong
Need to see if FII flows turn back to India

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is to try and play yesterday’s range
Today’s first Nifty range: 16,918-17,091
Sell zone: 17,050-17,100, stop loss: 17,150
Buy zone: 16,900-16,950, stop loss: 16,828
If 16,828 starts to break, press big shorts
If 17,225 starts to cross, press big longs

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty’s expiry may impact Bank Nifty moves
((Show 39,500 Call and 39,500 Put))
Combined premium of 39,500 Call and Put at Rs 500
Bank Nifty’s broad range seen at 39,000-40,000
Smaller range for Bank Nifty at 39,250-39,700
Buy zone: 39,300-39,400, stop loss: 39,225
Sell zone: 39,550-39,685, stop loss: 39,765
39,765 also represents the 200 DMA

GM

EXPIRY OF A TERRIBLE SERIES
March series ends today, has been painful series
Nifty down over 500 pts but pain in midcaps bigger
Nifty has repeatedly taken support at 16,850-16,900
Big question: How much of 84% shorts will FIIs carry?
March series will also mark the end of FY23
Many traders hopeful new financial year will start better

52-W HIGH/LOWS
Group 52-w high 52-w low
A 2 112
B 11 312
Others 46 292
Total 59 716

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Expiry day today, need to play range smartly again
For last 2 days, market has beautifully respected levels
Today also, level based trading should work
Total premium of 17000 Call and 16900 Put at Rs 75
Range for expiry: 16,825-17,075
Sell zone: 17,000-17,050, stop loss: 17,100
Buy zone: 16,875-16,925, stop loss: 16,800
A sharp 3 pm move is possible, will analyse data in closing

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Combined premium of 39500 Call and Put at Rs 350
Broad range of Bank Nifty: 39,150-39,850
Trading range of Bank Nifty: 39,325-39,775
Bank Nifty slightly stronger than Nifty
“Buy on dips” working but selling seen at 200 DMA
Buy zone: 39,400-39,500, stop loss: 39,300
Sell zone: 39,650-39,750, stop loss: 39,800

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