Good morning

THE DAY AFTER THE SHOCK
Market was due for one round of selling
Friday’s move would have pulled weak hands out
Friday’s fall was essentially technical, due to HDFC twins
Ex of HDFC twins, market was not too bad
Thursday’s high has now established near-term ceiling
Need to see how Bank Nifty behaves today
Possible to see Nifty and Bank Nifty test 20 DEMA

THE HDFC IMPACT!
HDFC twins accounted for 172 of 186 point Nifty fall
HDFC stock below 20 DEMA, close to 50 DEMA
HDFC Bank below 20 and 50 DEMA, close to 100 DEMA
Delivery selling of Rs 1600 cr in HDFC
Delivery selling of Rs 3000 cr in HDFC Bank
Total delivery selling of Rs 4600 cr in two stocks
Expected outflow due to MSCI factor was Rs 1200-1500 cr
Big question is how much more will HDFC twins fall?

NIFTY OUTLOOK
The day after big red bar can get very volatile
Every rally today will be vulnerable to selling
First support level for Nifty: 18,000
Big support level for Nifty: 17,885
Exit all longs if Nifty starts to break 17,885
Day traders need to see first 30 minutes of trade
If Nifty is stable, try to buy with stop of 17,990 (10 DEMA)
Sell trades will initiate if Nifty starts to fall
For any sell trades, stop loss will be first hour high

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty closed below 10 DEMA of 42,900
Big support at 20 DEMA of 42,333
If 42,333 starts to break, exit all positional longs also
Need to see first hour of trade in Bank Nifty after huge red bar
First hour high and low should be the two markers today
Buy zone: 42,450-42,600, stop loss: 42,333 (20 DEMA)
Sell will initiate if rally starts to fail
For sell trades, first hour high will be the stop loss

good morning

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BACK TO BASICS
Friday and Monday offset each other
Market getting ready to test new highs again
Already at new high: Autos, FMCG, CPSE, Infra, Cap Goods
Within 1-2% of highs: Fin Services, Midcap, Nifty Bank
Ex of IT, most Indian indices already at record highs
FII momentum intact, huge cash inflow chasing momentum

BIG DELIVERY BUYING
Stock Del (Rs cr)
HDFC 1100
HDFC Bank 850
Bajaj Fin 625
ICICI Bank 450
Reliance 600
Tata Motors 500
Maruti 400
M&M 300

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is to buy the dip and add on all dips
First buy zone: 18,200-18,250
Add zone on further dip: 18,170-18,200
Stop loss for all longs: 18,150
((Show 18,200 Put here))
Profit taking zone for today: 18,350-18,400
If 18,420 is crossed, next level to watch: 18,660
No thoughts of shorting till 18,100 is holding

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
“Buy on dips” trade is back on Bank Nifty
First buy zone: 43,000-43,100
Add zone on further dips: 42,900-43,000
Stop loss for all longs: 42,780
Profit taking zone: 43,600-43,700
If 43,700 is crossed, next level to watch: all time high
No thoughts of shorting till 42,780 is holding

Good morning.

MARKET: GAME OF PING PONG
Nifty Open: 18,303
Nifty high: 18,344
Nifty low: 18,229
Nifty close: 18,264

MARKET: GAME OF PING PONG
Day Nifty
May 4: +166
May 5 -187
May 8 +195
May 9 +1.6

ITC, SBI and ICICI Bank intra-day

MARKET: IMPORTANT DAY
Nifty trading in last big congestion zone
Midcap and Bank Nifty very close to 52-w highs
FII momentum remains very strong
Karnataka elections today, exit polls in evening
Domestic numbers continue to look very strong
Earnings season to enter last stage now

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Heavy Call writing yesterday at 18,300 and 18,350
((18,300 and 18,350 Call))
Congestion zone for Nifty: 18,347-18,378
Big short covering likely if Nifty crosses 18,378
If Nifty closes above 18,420, no resistance till 18,600
Buy zone for today: 18,200-18,250, stop: 18,150
Sell zone for today: 18,300-18,350, stop: 18,380

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 43,400, 43,500 and 43,600 Call))
Heavy Call writing in 43,400-43,600 zone
Big resistance zone: 43,512-43,659
Support zone: 42,800-43,000
Need to see behaviour of ICICI Bank and SBI today
Buy zone: 43,100-43,200, stop loss: 42,950
Profit taking zone: 43,450-43600
Shorts will open only if Bank Nifty slips below 42,800

GM

IT LED RALLY LIKELY TODAY
US inflation data raises hopes of Fed pivot
Even if no cut, rate hikes may be done in US
IT stocks will see an end to valuation de-rating
Ex of Infosys, most IT results have been decent
Possible to see Bank Nifty consolidate a bit
Nifty can have a big rally if it crosses 18,420
Broader market likely to have a strong day today

FII MOMENTUM: VERY STRONG
In last 10 days, FIIs have bought Rs 18,000 cr of equities
Average run rate of Rs 1800 per day in last 10 days
Most of the buying in consumer and financial names
Midcap Index may attempt all-time high today/tomorrow
Today’s big cue will be market’s reaction to US inflation

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
If Fed pause is confirmed, money will move to EMs
FII momentum can pick up to over Rs 3,000 cr/day
Need to see if US can avoid recession
IT stocks will be good portfolio bets in next 2-3 months
Indian market can go through a melt up in near-term

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 18,300 and 18,350 Call in 1 plate))
Big question: Will 18,350 Call writer panic today?
Nifty has some resistance in 18,380-18,420 zone
Nifty’s texture so far has been “Buy on dips”
Today’s trade is to buy half at open and add half on dips
For adding, a dip of 18,250-18,300 would be the range
Profit booking should be done if Nifty halts at 18,420
If Nifty doesn’t halt at 18,420, carry positions till expiry
Stop loss for all long positions: 18,212 (Yesterday’s low)
Keep an eye on large cap IT stocks for momentum

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty successfully defended yesterday’s stop of 42,800
Bank Nifty may underperform Nifty in first half today
Bank Nifty has strong resistance in 43,500-43,700 zone
Better to focus on Nifty today than Bank Nifty
No major trade in Bank Nifty today except 3 pm move
Will look for 3 pm move in Closing show

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GM

NERVOUS 90s
Indian markets getting very close to life highs
Nifty 3%, Midcap 1.4% and Nifty Bank 0.8% away from peak
Auto, FMCG, Cap Goods, Fin Svcs, Infra already at new highs
FIIs continue to buy, no sell number since Apr 26
Last 10 days: Total net buying of Rs 20,000 cr in Indian stocks
Average net buying of Rs 2,000 cr/day
Weekend numbers mostly very strong

BIG WEEK FOR MARKETS
India inflation cools to 18-month low
RBI’s pause now looks a master stroke
Some nervousness today due to Karnataka results
Manner of Congress victory will raise some doubts about 2024
US markets continue to show fatigue and tiredness
Huge nos this week: ITC, SBI, Bharti and Divi’s
18th May likely to be extremely important day for market
Expiry on 18th with nos of SBI and ITC

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today is a day to work with level based trading
Both “buy on dips” and “sell on rally” may work
First support zone: 18,200-18,250
Bigger support zone: 18,100-18,200
Trade is to buy the first dip and add in support zone 1
Stop loss for longs at 18,100 (low of support 2)
First resistance zone: 18,300-18,350
Bigger resistance zone: 18,400-18,450
Profit booking to be done at first resistance zone
Sell trade if Nifty rejects first resistance zone
Stop loss for all Sell trades: 18,450 (high of resistance 2)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains the leader, trade is “Buy on dips”
Trade is to buy at open and add more on dips
Stop loss for all long trades today at 43,400
Profit booking zone: 44,000-44,100
All time high of 44,151 will be the biggest resistance
If Index closes above 44,151, move to 45,000 will begin
No thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty till 43,000 is intact