GM

19,500 TODAY?
Market very strong, all dips getting bought
Bank Nifty fell 150 pts despite 3% fall in HDFC Bank
Midcap Index again hit all time high yesterday
FII buying intact, fresh buying of Rs 1600 cr
Market going through sectoral churn in last few days
Weekly expiry today, need to see option writers behaviour
Maximum build-up at 19500 Call and 19,300 Put
If 19,451 is crossed today, expect sharp move to 19,500

RETURN OF BIG STOCKS
600 cr delivery buying in ICICI Bank yesterday
Stock hit fresh all-time high after 1-month consolidation
Stock needs another 3% rally to catch up with HDFC Bank
350 cr delivery buying in SBI yesterday
Stock still 6% away from 52-week highs
HDFC Bank: Stock still strong, will see buying if it falls to 1650
Infosys has shown signs of testing 200 DMA of 1440

Nifty High Low
July 3 19345 19234
July 4 19434 19300
July 5 19421 19339

Bank Nifty High Low
July 3 45353 44882
July 4 45655 45000
July 5 45418 45073

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first range: 19,339-19,421
Today’s bigger range: 19,280-19,520
Buy at open if gap down of 40-50 points
Accumulation zone: 19,325-19,350
Stop loss for all long trades: 19,234
Trailing stop for all positional longs: 19,234
Profit booking zone for day traders: 19,434-19,450
If 19,451 sustains, chase via 19,450 Calls
No thoughts of shorting till 19,234 is holding

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first range: 45,000-45,418
Today’s bigger range: 44,900-45,550
Buy at open if gap down of 100-150 points
Accumulation zone: 44,800-45,000
Stop loss for all long trades: 44,500
Trailing stop loss for all long trades: 44,500
Profit booking zone for day trades: 45,418-45,655
No thoughts of shorting till 44,500 is holding

BIG STOCKS OF THE DAY
2-wheeler theme
Hero Moto now best placed among the lot
Hero has valuation comfort, dividend play
Hero + Harley seems like a winning combination
Need to see the booking number update

Bajaj Auto’s bike priced really attractive
After long time, Bajaj has got pricing right
Export remains the dark horse for Bajaj Auto

Eicher Motors may go through some time correction
Brokerages have downgraded PE for Royal Enfield
Tough to sustain 90% share at 43% gross margin

TVS Motor has been the best performing stock
TVS is now EV play but most expensive

Leap of faith worked today. That kind of day

:)

19500 is here 🙏

Good morning

BHARAT AND INDIA: BOTH SHINING
Strong quarterly updates from Titan and Dabur
Titan Q1 sales up 20%, jewelery segment strong
Dabur Q1 sales up 10%, Badshah Masala growth 15%
Indian market running up on own fundamentals
Strong US jobs data, strong dollar is good news for IT
IT stocks showing signs of testing 52-week highs now
Today’s space to focus on can be Midcap IT

WHY IS INDIA OUTPERFORMING?
1) Macros very strong
GDP growth of 7.2% in FY23
Inflation and interest rates peaked out
Robust external balance
Stable currency

2) Micros stable
FY23 earnings growth was strong
On strong base, FY24 could see high teens growth
Commodity correction will lead to margin surge

3) Return of FII money
FIIs have poured in Rs 70,000 cr in last 3 months

No signs of euphoria: Primary market action nowhere near FY21

STOCKS AT 52-W HIGH/LOW
Group Highs Lows
A 89 2
B 74 2
Others 69 18
Total 232 22

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Sell 2,351.66 Cr in Cash (8,247.14- 10,598.80 Cr)
FII Net Buy 2,641.05 Cr in Cash (12,337.96- 9,696.91 Cr)

FII Net Buy 780.41 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Buy 2957.67 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs buy 780 Cr in Index Futures
Long +10425
Short +2000

FII Long Exposure
At 73% in Index Futures

FII long positions cross 1 lakh mark, at 1.02 lakh

FIIs buy 2958 Cr in Stock Futures
FIIs Add 24900 Longs, Cut 16500 Shorts in Stock Futures

Nifty July Futures at 38.80 pts premium vs 68.35 pts premium

Nifty PCR at 1.48 vs 1.37

F&O Ban:
NEW IN BAN: BHEL, DELTACORP

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Market’s template is simple: Buy every dip
Keep raising stop loss on every 200 point rally
New stop loss for all Nifty longs: 19,300
First target of 19,500 hit, bigger target of 20,000 in July
Today will be the test of market’s trend
First dip may be bought, second dip would be crucial
Buy zone: 19,350-19,450, stop loss: 19,300
No thoughts of shorting this market

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has opened doors to 48,000-50,000
Best way to approach Bank Nifty is via ETFs
Keep doing SIPs in ETF, add on every dip
For traders, stop loss has now moved to 44,800
Buy zone for fresh entry: 45,000-45,100, stop: 44,800
No thoughts of shorting this market

BIG STOCKS TODAY
US jobs data is very strong, indicates economy still hot
Q1 nos could be muted for large caps due to Banking crisis
Need to hear what managements say after results
Good chance that Q1 could be last bad quarter
IT stocks have corrected to reasonable valuations
Midcap IT stocks showing signs of big breakout
Can focus on Midcap IT which is not majorly in BFSI
Strong stocks: Persistent, Coforge, LTTS, Tata Elxsi, Cyient

First dip may be bought, second dip would be crucial - Now we have the second dip

GM

MARKET: SCARE ON FRIDAY
First dip was bought but second dip ended at day’s low
Nifty ended at 19331; 10 DEMA at 19,197 & 20 DEMA at 19,000
Big selling by DIIs, Banks led the fall on Friday
As of now, market’s texture is still “Buy on dips”
If Nifty breaks 19,200 on close, texture will change
Weak hands may get thrown out, move to 20,000 is intact

MACROS AND MICROS
US inflation data and Fed beige book this week
Global markets fell on Friday due to US jobs data
Three Fed Governors are slated to talk this week
Indian inflation numbers to be also out this week
Earnings season for big cos starts with TCS, HCL T on 12th
Reliance sets record date for demerger, ascribes value to retail
HDFC will cease to exist from this week, July 13 record date

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see some stability after Friday’s fall
Trailing stop loss for longs on closing basis: 19,300
First hour should be used to observe the market
No hurry to take long trades at open
Buy on Nifty only on stability at any levels
Buy zone for today: 19,250-19,300, stop: 19,197
Stop loss for fresh longs: 19,197 (10 DEMA)
Short trade only if gap up fails, first hour high as stop

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Trailing stop for Bank Nifty longs at 44,750 (10 DEMA)
Need to see ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank behaviour
On stability, buy in 44,800-44,900 zone, stop: 44,700
If first hour rally fails, can short with first hour high as stop

GM

TIGER ZINDA HAI
Rs 2,500 cr delivery volume in Reliance yesterday
Reliance contributed 78 points to Nifty yesterday
Reliance stock hit fresh 52-week high yesterday
Reliance showing signs of crossing all-time highs
Broader market has started showing signs of correction
Midcap Index has corrected 1.3%, Small Cap 1.4%
Nifty has not yet broken trailing stop loss of 19,300
As of now, the basic texture is still “Buy on dips”

BANKS AND IT: WHAT NEXT?
IT stocks showing nervousness ahead of nos
HCL Tech has fallen 6.5% in last 3 days
Wipro has broken 200 DMA, TCS very close to it
Infosys has shown relative strength vs the sector
HDFC Bank has corrected almost 6% from life highs
MSCI related selling in HDFC twins will be over today/tomorrow
HDFC Bank will trade as single entity from 13th July
ICICI Bank has shown relative strength, outperformed HDFC Bank

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Nifty chart))
Heavy Put writing yesterday at 19,350 Put
First support zone for Nifty: 19,295-19,327
Sacred stop loss for longs on closing basis: 19,300
First resistance at yesterday high of 19,435
Bigger resistance at life high of 19,523
Buy zone: 19,325-19,375, stop loss: 19,295
Profit booking zone: 19,435-19,523
Sell trade on rejection of 19,435, stop loss: 19,450

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty expiry has worked on 6 consecutive Tuesdays

FIN NIFTY: LAST 6 TUESDAYS
Date Day low Close
July 4 20307 20413
June 27 19555 19788
June 20 19302 19502
June 13 19372 19469
June 6 19407 19479
May 30 19493 19606

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank can bottom out any time now
Bank Nifty tested 10 DEMA and held it yesterday
Alert: Current 10 DEMA on Bank Nifty at 44,777
Yesterday’s low of 44,721 now trailing stop for long
Buy zone: 44,750-44,850, stop loss: 44,721
Sell trade on rejection of 45,150, stop loss: 45,200

BIG STOCKS
Vedanta (red)
Stock didn’t fall yesterday, can fall today
Foxconn-Vedanta deal falls, negative for stock
Vedanta had earlier approved buyout of Vedanta Foxconn

Zee Ent (no color)
Stock enter F&O ban, NCLT reserves order
SAT had yesterday rejected relief for Punit Goenka
Big question: Will this be a Sony co without Goenkas?

GM

MARKET: READY FOR NEXT MOVE
Nifty has defended trailing stop, had a good close
Bank Nifty’s close impacted by Fin Nifty, HDFC twins
Reliance has shown signs of taking near-term leadership
Infosys and TCS have shown signs of bottoming out
Broader market strong after 3 days of correction
Midcap Index set to hit fresh all-time high today
Event heavy day for both macros and micros
Inflation data in US and India, earnings season kicks off
TCS and HCL Tech to declare nos, expectations muted

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty traded above Monday high all day yesterday
Trailing stop loss on Nifty remains same at 19,300
If Nifty crosses 19,500, trailing stop moves to 19,400
Resistance zone for today: 19,515-19,540
Above 19,540, expect sharp move to 19,700
HDFC’s last day today, some volatility is possible
HDFC Bank’s low today could be its low for long time
Buy zone for today: 19,380-19,420, stop loss: 19,300
No shorting trade in Nifty

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty was one shade weaker than Nifty
Bank Nifty closed below 10 DEMA after long time
Next support level: 20 DEMA of 44,513
Benefit of doubt to Bank Nifty due to HDFC Bank
Texture still “Buy on dips”, big rally likely
For today, will avoid day trading on Bank Nifty
Today’s moves can be volatile due to HDFC Bank merger
Trailing stop for all longs now at 20 DEMA of 44,513

BIG STOCKS
Delta Corp (negative)
28% GST on full value of bets
Casino industry will lose market share to offshore
Stock in ban, likely to open at 10% down freeze
Possible to see intra-day down move of 20% also

Indigo (structurally positive)
DGCA puts Spicejet under enhanced surveillance
After Go Air debacle, big rally was seen in Indigo
Crude’s rally could impact sentiment little bit
Next headwind is block deal by Gangwal family