GM

INFOSYS: NASTY SURPRISE
Results meet estimates but guidance cut sharply
New guidance at 1-3.5% vs 4-7% earlier
Guidance cut despite Q1 being in line with estimates
All brokerages have cut estimates for EPS
ADR was down nearly 9%, stock should start with 10% fall
Current rally started from Rs 1265, went to nearly 1500
Stock should now fall to start of rally point of 1265
52-week low of 1185 is also possible for Infosys
Between 1200-1250, value investors will buy the stock
Any buying before improvement of nos will be leap of faith
Historically, Infosys doubles in 1-3 years after 40-50% fall from peak

MARKET: WHAT FROM HERE?
Market will now go back to comfort of Bank Nifty
Every rally from here will be sponsored by Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty has opened the door to a rally towards 48,000
ICICI Bank and SBI have shown signs of taking back leadership
ICICI Bank nos on Saturday, stock extremely strong
If SBI delivers strong nos, stock can move to Rs 700 very fast
IT stocks might not outperform from here for some time
Small Cap space getting overbought, need to be cautious

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Trailing stop loss on Nifty longs now at 19,600
First support level: 19,758 (yesterday’s low)
Bigger support level: 19,612 (10 DEMA)
Buy zone: 19,850-19,900
Add zone: 19,700-19,750
Stop loss for all long positions: 19,612
No thoughts of shorting the market yet despite Infosys shocker

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty one shade stronger than Nifty
Approach Bank Nifty via ETF route, do SIP
Bank Nifty is set for a big expansion to 48,000
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 45,800-46,000
Add zone: 45,500-45,800
Stop loss: 45,100 (previous breakout zone)
ICICI Bank and SBI looking very strong
If HDFC Bank joins the party, Bank Nifty will be unstoppable
No thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty at all

My view on zero hero trades.

What next for Nifty

Good morning

BIG DAY TODAY FOR LEADERSHIP STOCKS
ICICI Bank delivers strong nos but margin down sequentially
Brokerages believe ICICI’s nos from here will moderate
Kotak Mahindra nos strong but valuations expensive
Reliance: Decent nos but stock has seen a big rally already
Infosys: Delivery volume of Rs 3,700 cr on Friday
Nifty: 10 DEMA of 19,640 remains the crucial mark
Market’s texture still is “Buy on dips”
((Give me Nifty futures plate))

HUGE WEEK FOR MARKETS
Most important cue: FOMC meet on interest rate
Market’s base case: 25 bps hike and dovish commentary
Surprise only if no rate hike or commentary hawkish
Nifty will react to 22% of earnings today by weight
By expiry, 73% of Nifty weight results will be out

RESULTS THIS WEEK
MONDAY TATA STEEL
TUESDAY ASIAN PAINTS | BAJAJ AUTO | L&T | SBI LIFE | TATA MOTORS
WEDNESDAY AXIS BANK | BAJAJ FINANCE | BPCL | CIPLA | DRL | TATA CONSUMER | TECHM
THURSDAY BAJAJ FINSERV | NESTLE
SATURDAY NTPC

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Those who missed the last rally getting an opportunity.
First support for Nifty: 19,696 (Options based)
Bigger support for Nifty: 19,640 (10 DEMA)
Stop loss for positional longs at close: 19,640
Buy zone today: 19,675-19,725, stop loss: 19,640
On close below 19,640, get out of all long positions
As of now, no shorting thoughts

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is one shade stronger than the Nifty
First support for today: 45,925 (Friday low)
Bigger support for today: 45,750 (Options based)
Stop loss for positional longs: 45,200 (last breakout)
Positional stop deep for Bank Nifty to play for bigger rally
For day traders, buy zone: 45,950-46,050
Add zone: 45,800-45,950, stop loss: 45,700
No thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty

Stocks on my radar

Today's reel topic: "Buy on rumour, sell on news" and "What next for ITC"? Stay tuned for evening.

Reel on ITC

Today’s outlook and stocks to watch.

GM

NIFTY: STRUGGLING FOR LEADERSHIP
Nifty has ended at low point for 2 days in a row
Things were fine till 2:30, last hour was bad
ITC spoiled last hour sentiment, demerger structure bad
HDFC Bank has failed to cross 1700 despite good nos
ICICI Bank failed to sustain above 1000 after stellar nos
Reliance has fallen nearly 5% in 2 days after a big rally
Infosys facing lot of selling pressure on every rally
Only SBI and L&T have shown clear leadership moves
Nifty now at 10 DEMA and very close to trailing stop loss

CUES FOR TODAY
Fin Nifty’s expiry today, last 2 expiries have been bad
L&T’s nos and buyback board meet today
Big nos today: Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Asian Paints, Jubilant Food
FOMC meet starts today, US markets in a big bull run
Market at support, Put Call ratio at 0.81 close to bottom
If today’s rally fails, will be negative for market’s trend
So far, trend is still positive and “Buy on dips”

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,649 (10 DEMA)
Big support: 19,600 (options based)
If Nifty starts to close below 19,600, will be negative
Trailing stop loss for all long traded now at 19,600
Below 19,600, a test of 20 DEMA of 19,450 is possible
For day traders, buy zone at stability above 19,650-19,700 zone
Buy only if Nifty is stable above 19,700 mark
Stop loss for all long trades at 19,600
First resistance: 19,782 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 19,842 (Options based)
Intra-day short trade on rejection of 19,782
Stop loss for all short trades at 19,842

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is still relatively better placed
Fin Nifty’s expiry today, need to see last hour move
Bank Nifty still much above 5 and 10 DEMA
ICICI Bank’s behaviour today will be most crucial
Yesterday, Canara Bank posted stellar nos
SBI remains on course to hit fresh highs
Need some participation from HDFC bank and Kotak
Bank Nifty’s range: 45,750-46,250
Traders need to play the range smartly