GM

THE D-1 DAY IS HERE!
Nifty made series low on day 1, series high yesterday
Nifty set to test 20,000 at open today

TRADE SETUP
FII on Index Futures
Change in OI Positioning
Longs +5560 24%
Shorts +4502 76%

FII short Positions
Start of the Series 89%
Today 76%

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,875 (Previous resistance)
Bigger support: 19,780 (Options based)
First resistance: 20,000 (Psychological number)
Bigger resistance: 20,110 (Options based)
Outside chance of series ending at all-time high of 20,222

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 44,100 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 44,420 (Series high)
First support: 43,740 (Yesterday;s low)
Bigger support: 43,580 (Options based)

GM

JUDGEMENT DAY LOOMS
Exit polls today
F&O monthly expiry today
Opec+ meeting on output cut today
Last day of month today
Nifty is ending the series at highest point

MARKET: BULLS IN CONTROL
Market broke out yesterday, Bank Nifty led the breakout
Both Bank Nifty and Nifty IT saw big buying yesterday
Nifty IT should get another leg up due to US GDP nos
Dollar and Bond yield not rallying despite strong US GDP
The only worry today is volatility ahead of exit polls
Nifty ended at highest point yesterday
If Nifty starts to trade above 20,162, another trend day possible

DELIVERY VOLUME
HDFC Bank 1500 cr
ICICI Bank 500 cr
Axis Bank 650 cr
Kotak Bank 450 cr

FII Net Short Positioning in Nov Series
Start 89%
Currently 71%

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 20,162 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 20,222 (All-time high)
First support: 19,972 (Options based)
Bigger support: 19,875 (Breakout zone)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 44,420 (Breakout zone)
Bigger support: 44,100 (previous resistance)
First resistance: 44,720 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 45,000 (Psychological level)

GM

TRIPLE DOSE
Exit Polls
GDP
Global cues

Biggest cue today: Exit polls indicate best case outcome
Good chance of BJP winning both MP and Rajasthan
Second big cue: India’s Q2 GDP grows at 7.6%
Third big cue: Global cues positive, big rally in Dow Jones
Only risk for market is exuberance at all-time high

NIFTY SERIES MOVES
Nov 23 +1276 Pts
Oct 23 -666 Pts
Sep 23 +270 Pts
Aug 23 -406 Pts
Jul 23 +688 Pts

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Only resistance: 20,222 (All-time high)
Need to see what Nifty does at all-time high
Normal instinct is to book profit at all-time high
First support: 20,133 (Yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 20,015 (Yesterday's low)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 44,765 (Yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 45,000 (Psychological)
First support: 44,481 (Yesterday's close)
Bigger support: 44,259 (Yesterday’s low)

GM

MARKET: ABKI BAAR 22,000?
A big overhang is out of the way
Don’t even think about shorting this market
We are in middle of biggest ever bull market
Nifty is likely to have a sharp 1000-2000 point rally
FIIs will also be forced to come back
Even if you go wrong, go wrong on long side
Focus on domestic economy stocks from here on
Focus on manufacturing, defence and PSUs
Aaj Bank Nifty mein 1000-1500 point ki rally ho sakti hai

MARKET: KITNA DISCOUNTED HAI?
Nobody had discounted 3-1 for BJP
3-0 in Hindi heartland is a major positive
Even possible for BJP to win 350+ on its own in 2024
Even Telangana results a positive for BJP
For market now there is no domestic risk
The only risk for market is from global front

AB RETAIL KYA KARE?
Ye mat socho ki miss ho gaya
5, 10 aur 20 saal ka nazaria rakhiye
20 saal mein Nifty 4 lakh – kya aap invested rahenge?
India is world’s fastest growing major economy
Easiest way to participate in this is via Nifty ETFs
If not Nifty ETFs, can even invest via mutual funds
If doing direct equity, focus only on quality
From here on, the next big move will come in large caps
Focus on domestic economy stocks from here on
Focus on manufacturing, defence and PSUs

MARKET SETUP
Nifty: 6 months before Central Election results
2014 +19%
2019 +11%
#Motilal report

DII cash
FII cash

DII, FII bars

FIIs have now bought for 7 days in a row

FIIs buy 702 Cr in Index Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Contracts Exposure
Long +6950 38%
Short -2855 62%

Remaining FII shorts will be cleaned out by markets

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty likely to open above 20,500
This market is not about level based trading
Try to get in on any small dip/consolidation
Don’t get in with approach to make money today itself
Possible to see 21,000 before any small correction comes
Don’t think about shorting this market at all

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Aaj Bank Nifty mein 1000-1500 point ki rally ho sakti hai
ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank are likely to lead
If FIIs start to buy, Bank Nifty will outperform
Next stop for Bank Nifty: All-time high
Buy on every dip, small aur big

GM

MARKET: DON’T SHORT
If you want to make big money, stay long
India is in middle of a big bull market
Don’t even think about shorting this market
Stay oriented to domestic economy stocks for next 3-6 months
This market will fully price in Modi 3.0 by May 2024

BANK NIFTY: THE GO TO POCKET?
Moves this year
Nifty 14.3%
Nifty Midcap 40%
Nifty Small Cap 48%
Nifty Auto 40%
Nifty IT 14%
Nifty Bank 8%

NIFTY: WHAT ARE THE NEXT TARGETS?
A new high has been taken out after 2 months
Normally, Nifty adds 1000 points after hitting new high
Possible to see 21,200 by December end in sheer momentum
Pre-budget rally post that can take Nifty to 22,000
A final pre-election rally can take Nifty towards 23,000-24,000
There will be corrections in between, up to 500-600 points

NIFTY: WHAT IS THE BOTTOM?
Recent low of 18,800 should act as a new bottom
In current run, 19,875 is the hard bottom
If your target is 23,000, your stop should be 19,875
A big resistance normally becomes the biggest support
Markets normally don’t breach previous resistance
Remember the mantra: SIP and DIP

TRADE SETUP
Cash Market:
DII +4797 Cr
FII +2073 Cr

FIIs buy for 8th day in Cash, $2 Bn worth purchase so far

DII and FII bars

Delivery volumes
HDFC Bank Rs 3,100 cr
ICICI Bank Rs 2,200 cr

Index Futures OI Change
Nifty +5.9%
Nifty Bank -2%

FIIs buy 1988 Cr in Index Futures
Nifty +1427 Cr
Nifty Bank +508 Cr

FIIs in Index Futures
Long +22915
Short +1110

FII Index Futures Long Exposure
Nov 30 36%
Dec 1 38%
Dec 4 44%

FIIs in Index option
Call short +0.9 lk
Put short +5.3 lk

Nifty PCR at 1.39 vs 1.30

F&O BAN
NEW IN BAN: IBULHSGFIN, INDIACEM, ZEEL
STILL IN BAN: DELTACORP

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 20,507 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 20,444 (Options based)
First resistance: 20,804 (options based)
Bigger resistance: 21,000 (Psychological)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty’s expiry today, need to see first hour
Market is betting on big FII comeback in HDFC Bk, ICICI bk
Bank Nifty has no resistance now, its about momentum

GM

YE HAI BADI WALI TEJI
Iss Teji mein ghabrayein nahi
Large caps ne to abhi chalna shuru kiya hai
Bank Nifty 50,000 se pehle nahi rukne wala
Abhi to FIIs ki 5000 cr roz ki buying aani hai
Hamesha macro event mein directional trade lein
Monday gap up ke baad khareedne par bhi bada paisa bana
800 point ke Gap up ke baad Bank Nifty kareeb 1500 point aur chala hai
Beech beech mein choti moti corrections aayengi
Abhi kuch time ke liye IT nahi, Banks aur old economy par focus karen

MARKET: WHAT TO WATCH
Bank Nifty weekly expiry today
Bank Nifty should hit the targets of 47500-48000 today
((Show ICICI and HDFC Bank del vol here))
((two days delivery buying has been big))
Brent crude slips further to $77/bbl
RBI MPC this week, market expects dovish pause
Indian market going through a fundamental driven rally
Indian market rally has been driven by earnings, macros
BJP’s win has just accelerated the pace of the rally
Remaining FII shorts will be taken to the cleaners
Manufacturing, Banking and consumption will lead the run

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Sell 1,399.18 Cr in Cash (11,467.11- 12,866.29 Cr)
FII Net Buy 5,223.51 Cr in Cash (17,190.73- 11,967.22 Cr)

FII in F&O
FII Net Buy 1938.47 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Buy 920.73 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy 1938 Cr
Long +16777
Short -4863

FII Index Futures Longs
Nov 30 36%
Dec 1 38%
Dec 4 44%
Dec 5 49%

FIIs in Nifty Bank Futures
Dec 1 +581 Cr
Dec 4 +508 Cr
Dec 5 +673 Cr

Nifty PCR at 1.37 vs 1.39

F&O BAN
NEW IN BAN: NIL
STILL IN BAN: DELTACORP, IBULHSGFIN, INDIACEM, ZEEL

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Don’t even think about shorting
Even thinking about shorting is banned for now
Keep aggressive targets and keep trailing stop loss
Every day now, trail stop to previous day’s low
New trailing stop loss: 20,711 (Yesterday’s low)
There is no resistance now, only targets
Nifty is in blue sky territory
Nifty might underperform Bank Nifty due to Nifty IT
Next targets: 21,000 and 21,250

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty should hit the target of 47,500 in first hour
Fresh entry point for Bank Nifty is when intra-day dip ends
Buy on first green bar after intra-day dip ends
((Show Bank Nifty’s yesterday’s chart))
Even possible to hit 48,000 if first hour high is taken out
ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank seeing massive delivery buying
SBI and Kotak also look set to join the party
Bank Nifty has gone through 9-12 months of underperformance
If you short Bank Nifty, go and do 100 push ups as punishment

GM

MARKET: WHAT NEXT?
This month: Nifty up 4.2%, Midcap up 3.5%, Small Cap up 1.8%
This year: Nifty up 16%, Midcap up 41%, Small Cap up 42%
There is a possibility of large cap catch up if FII buying continues
FIIs have been buyers in most of last 10 days
Friday also saw FII buying of Rs 3,632 cr
5 biggest stocks of India have all underperformed this year
This year: Reliance down 3.5% (Excl JFS), TCS up 11%, HDFC Bk up 1.4%
This year: ICICI Bank up 8.7%, Infosys down 5%, HUL down 7%

TRADE SETUP
FII on Index Futures
Change in OI Positioning
Longs +2376 58%
Shorts -2127 42%

FIIs are net long for first time since October 1

Nifty PCR at 1.20 vs 1.34

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 21,006 (Friday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 21,167 (Options based)
Support area: 20,850-80,860(Last 3 days low)

Date Nifty lows
Dec 6 20852
Dec 7 20851
Dec 8 20862

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty Bank has started to outperform Nifty
This month: Nifty Bank up 6.2% vs 4.2% for Nifty
This year: Nifty Bank up 10% vs 16% for Nifty