SENTIMENT VS INFLATION FEAR!
Global markets in a clear risk on mode
Inflation remains India’s biggest risk
Daily Petrol, diesel price hikes have resumed
Nifty bounced from 200 DMA, is it a fresh uptrend?

TRADE SETUP
NIFTY HIGH LOW
March 17 17,344 17,175
March 21 17,353 17,096
March 22 17,334 17,006

TRADE SETUP
Nifty bounced right from the 200 DMA yesterday
Can Nifty take out the congestion zone of 17,300-17,600?
At 17,500, Nifty will complete 66% retracement of fall from Jan
Nature of yesterday’s bounce looks promising
Aggressive Open Int at 17,400-17,600 Calls
Stagflation risks are now appearing serious for India
Not just petrol, diesel, even gas prices are surging

Good morning

DÉJÀ VU: INFLATION FEAR IS BACK!
Brent crude surges back to $123/bbl
Most commodities on a rampage
Dollar Index making a move towards 99 again
Nifty once again falls from congestion zone
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Big question: Is the global short squeeze done?
For Nifty, 17,500 now becomes critical
17,500 represents 66% retracement level
200 DMA of 17,000 remains line in sand for Nifty
Big private financials again showing tiredness
This week: HDFC, Kotak, Axis down nearly 2-3%
Consumption names seeing derating again
This week: Britannia, HUL, Asian Paints, Nestle down 4-8%
Bank Nifty repeatedly rejecting 200 DMA of 36,700
Possible for Bank Nifty to now test 20 DMA of 35,360

Good morning

BETTER CUES TODAY
Nasdaq up
Dollar down
Brent crude down
Market showing typical ranged trading
Big question: Can the indices break from the range?
SGX up

TRADE SETUP
Nifty now in a well-defined band of 17,000-17,500
Break of either side of range will lead to expansion
As of now, market lacks triggers to break the range
Bank Nifty critically poised after yesterday’s decline
Bank Nifty defended 20 DMA despite heavy selling
Bank Nifty turns weak on close below 35,200
This week: Nifty down 0.4%, Midcap up 1.1%
Midcaps may extend gains on year end factors

The power of buying strongest stock in strong sectors on correction. Tata Elxsi was less than 800 that day in 2020 and in 2 years its become a 10 bagger. Of course I never imagined this is how it will play out but then that's what can happen if you let your winners run.

Good morning

MIXED SETUP!
Dollar Index back at 99, US yield at 2.5%
Brent crude cools to $117/bbl
China in focus: Shanghai in phased lockdown due to covid
Big question: Will the ranged trade continue?
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Nifty ended between 17,115-17,315 since Mar 17
Intra-day extremes have been 17,006 and 17,442
Global markets trying to price in end of war
Money may move from IT to Banks, eco stocks again
Bank Nifty can lead if it defends 20 DMA of 35,171
200 DMA of 36,700 remains elusive for Bank Nifty
PVR-Inox merger good news for opening up trade

Good morning

Remember this market is about trapping people on one side and moving on other side

IS MARKET SNIFFING BREAKOUT?
Nasdaq leads global pullback, ends at high
Nifty bounced from the lowest point of recent range
Big question: Can the Nifty take out 17,442?
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
FIIs covered big shorts in Index futures yesterday
Nifty defended 200 DMA and low point of range
Nifty may now test the higher end of range at 17,442
((Anecdotally if you defend one end of the range, you test the other side of the range))
Buying near 17,000 and selling near 17,400 has worked
Bank Nifty has unfinished business at 200 DMA of 36,700
Yesterday’s low on both Nifty and Bank Nifty now sacrosanct
Inflation is emerging as the big risk for rest of 2022

Risk-reward means buying around 17,000 and selling around 17,400

Good morning

RANGE BREAK TODAY?
SGX Nifty indicating 200 point gap up
Risk on playing out on hopes of end of war
US says “don’t be fooled by Russia’s pullback”
Brent crude back to $111/bbl

TRADE SETUP
Markets have been pricing in end of war for some time
Nifty set to open above the high point of range
Today’s trade can be about 17,500 Call writers
17,500 Call Open Int at 60 lk, premium at Rs 37
Bank Nifty may try to complete unfinished business
Bank Nifty at 35,850, current 200 DMA at 36,700
At higher levels, market vulnerable to sharp profit taking
Crude oil remains single biggest risk for markets

gm

STRONG CUES ON EXPIRY DAY
Dollar Index collapses to 97.7
Brent crude has shown signs of fatigue
FIIs buy big, rebalancing impact seen
Nifty up 4% this month
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Momentum with bulls, monthly expiry today
Big unwinding seen in 17,300-17,500 Calls
17,500 Call has Open Int of 56 lk, prem at Rs 76
Close above 17,606 would take Nifty to pre-war closing
Technically, 17,600-17,800 last major resistance zone
Bank Nifty still has unfinished business at 200 DMA of 36,700
Nifty’s base has now moved up to 17,200 on closing basis
Nifty bullishness gets negated on close below 17,200

Good morning