“DOVISH” FED SPARKS RALLY
Fed hikes by 75 bps but market surges
Market latches on to slowing down rate hike possibility
Dollar down and big surge in risk assets like Equity, commodity
Big question: Has the market already moved ahead of itself?
Back home, Nifty set to test the recent highs
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Expiry day, Nifty set to open at series high
Alert: Series high of 16,752 was hit on Jul 22
Bulls have controlled the entire series
16,500-16,700 Call writers were thrown out yesterday
Key today will be the 16,800 Call writer’s positions
16,800 Call has Open Int of 61 lakh shares, prem Rs 20
FIIs have gone “All in” on long side ahead of the event
Way to approach the day is to see price action of first hour
Longs will book profit at some point in first hour
There might be a second rally if first hour high is taken out
If first hour high is not taken out, market might decline in second half
IT in focus: Meta down 5% in post close, Cognizant cuts guidance
IT rally today would be most vulnerable, Banks stronger
Bank Nifty has now established 200 DMA as sacrosanct support

See this is why you wait for first few minutes after a gap up. Let those who bought yesterday book profit and then at signs of resumption of rally, jump in

I spoke about 200 DMA on nifty. We will hit that in morning trade.

Good morning

200 DMA IS HERE
US markets surge despite “recession”
Nasdaq leads, other risk assets join in party
FIIs buy in cash and F&O, start series net long
Nifty set to start above the 200 DMA
((SGX Nifty))

MARKET SETUP
FOMO is real, Nifty now up 7% this month
Bank Nifty hit 200 DMA, today Nifty will hit it
For near-term traders, risk-reward is key
Bank Nifty remains the leader, other may join in
Just in near-term, IT may see short covering
Yesterday’s move in Bajaj twins suggestive of FII return
Massive delivery volumes visible in large caps
Market now net long, most of short covering done
FIIs starting series at 57% net long, PCR at 1.43
At some point today, market will become heavily overbought

See the line on risk-reward and last nine. Its always important to assess the overbought or oversold nature of market while chasing

good morning folks. I am not in today. Have a good day

Good morning

SOFT GLOBAL CUES
All eyes on Nancy Pelosi’s proposed Taiwan visit
White house wary of military provocation by China
Asian mkts down as inflation remains a concern
Back home, biggest FII buying in this financial year
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Today will again test the market’s recent texture
Market momentum strong, even small dips getting bought
If Nifty closes above 17,394 it will be major milestone
A close above 17,394 would mean 66% recovery of entire fall
Anecdotally if recovery doesn’t stop at 66%, it hits new high
Above 17,394, a swift move to 18,000 opens up
Index futures: FIIs add 24,300 net longs yesterday
FIIs now 66.6% long and 33.3% short in Index futures
Midcap index up 20% from lows, within 9% of highs
Small Cap up 18% from lows, within 12% of highs
Market might go through one shakeout to remove weak longs

As we discussed momentum too strong and every dip getting bought

Good morning

TAIWAN FACTOR: AN IRRITANT?
Market took the Taiwan factor in its stride yesterday
As of now, Geopolitics unlikely to derail the rally
Dollar inches up a bit, DXY back to 106.5
Back home, FIIs buy and Rupee becomes strong
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Risk-reward not favourable for a fresh long immediately
Yesterday’s high of 17,395 represents big resistance
FII data indicates huge long unwinding yesterday
Index futures: FIIs unwind 23,000 longs, add 8,400 shorts
Index Options: FIIs buy 46,400 Puts, unwind 14,200 Put shorts
On Nifty, 2 closing levels are now most important
Close below 17,215 negative, close above 17,394 positive
17,394 is 66% recovery level of entire losses on closing basis
Above 17,394 close, a swift move to 18,000 opens up
Bank Nifty remains strong, consumption also very strong
First signs of any halt in rally will come from market breadth
Market breadth has been very strong through the rally

See Nifty high: 17,385. I said don't buy around 17,395

You always weigh in risk-reward

Bank Nifty at a big support now. If day low holds, it can be interesting.

Didn't hold. Day low broken