Good morning

EXPIRY DAY: STRONG CUES
Global markets take off in sync with Nancy Pelosi’s plane
Leadership firmly back with Nasdaq in US
Dollar and Brent remain benign for Indian market
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Nifty defended lower end of range, ended at highs
Yesterday’s price action now gives 17,215 as line in sand
Nifty set to open above the 17,394 crucial level
Nifty negates a major channel top above 17,500
Above 17,500, no congestion on Nifty till 18,000
Market overbought but momentum is too strong
For today, weekly expiry factors will dominate
Key highlight yesterday was Call writing at 17,400 and 17,500
17,400 Call Open Interest at 58 lakh, premium at Rs 60
17,500 Call Open Interest at 80 lakh, premium at Rs 22
Options data indicates resistance at 17,460-17,520
IT stocks led the move yesterday, Banks underperformed

Nifty high so far is 17,490 which is the exact mid point of 17,460 and 17,520. Let's see now the rest of the day

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Good morning

TRUNCATED WEEK!
Low volume session likely, holiday tomorrow
Global markets showing some nerves again
Strong jobs data leads to fear of another big Fed rate hike
Dollar Index inches closer to 107
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Market’s broad texture is “Buy the dip”
Nifty’s first important support: 17,300-17,350
On closing basis, 17,215 remains line in sand
17,400-17,500 remains a big congestion zone
FII buying for the month approaching $1 bn
Market on pace for first monthly FII buying in a year
Today’s key event will be reaction to SBI nos
SBI nos a bit soft and stock close to all time high
Bank Nifty has been the stronger Index for a month

GM

IMPORTANT DATA TODAY
US July inflation seen at 8.7% vs 9.1% in June
US inflation has been the biggest data point for mkt
Most global markets in wait and watch mode
Back home, FII buying continues
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Nifty closed above the congestion point of 17,500
Nifty about to break a huge channel on the upside
If channel break successful, big expansion possible
If channel break fails, the decline may start again
Banks strong but IT showing signs of fatigue
US yields and Nasdaq moves will be key for IT
Market’s “Buy the dip” texture negates below 17,215

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NEW HIGHS COMING?
Nifty has broken upper line of channel
FIIs net buyers every single day of Aug
Nifty within 4%, Midcap within 6% of new high
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Markets right now in a parabola phase
Only approach in parabola is trailing stops
Nifty has broken upper line of a 1 year channel
Erstwhile resistance of 17,650 now support
Broad market has been stronger than Nifty
Midcap Index up 25% from low, 6% off highs now
“Buy on dips” only approach in current market

Good morning

HAWKISH FED, BULLISH MARKET
US mkt down as Fed minutes show more hikes
US bond yield, Dollar, Brent remain benign
Back home, FII buying now averaging $250 m
Nifty within 3.5% of life time high
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Weekly options expiry, momentum with bulls
Huge build-up at 17,900 and 17,800 Puts
Going by options data, first support for Nifty at 17,860
Risk-reward will be favourable if Nifty dips close to 17,860
17,780 sacrosanct in unlikely event of 17,860 being breached
On upside, Calls data suggests some resistance at 18,000
Possible that intra-day rally tops out around 18,000
Matter of when and not if Nifty conquers 18,000
Bank Nifty may outperform after 2 days of consolidation