Youtube live

Good morning

BOE: MASTERSTROKE OR HARAKIRI?
BOE’s surprise QE move leads to big risk-on rally
Might be wrong to extrapolate BOE move to Fed
F&O expiry today, SGX indicating big gap up
Dollar Index and Dow futures to be closely tracked
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
BOE move: Have Govts reached max pain point?
Short-term fits normally lead to short-term rallies
For the day, need to see extent of short covering
FIIs sitting on nearly 1 lakh Index shorts, expiry today
SGX Nifty high of 17,108 will be first resistance today
17000 and 17100 Calls: combined Open Int of 1.62 cr shares
If Nifty sustains above 17,120, can see bigger short covering
The risk of the rally being suddenly sold into will be high
Market’s bigger texture will be clear after today’s action

Good morning. The setup will come in a bit. But the big risk-reward trade today will be on Bank Nifty after policy if the lows are protected. Given that Dollar is retreating and there are record shorts. Do your own diligence as well

GLOBAL CUES: MIXED BAG
Global risk off continues despite $ weakness
Dollar Index retreats to 112
Old economy trumps new economy, Exxon market cap above Meta
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
New series starting with massive short positions
FII short positions at all time high
FIIs starting new series with 1.21 lakh shorts
FII short positions worth $1.5 bn
Anecdotally, Oct marks end of a large downtrend
Time has come to build portfolio of economy stocks
Nifty has now given up 45% of the rally from June
50% retracement would mean a bottom around 16,680
66% retracement would mean a bottom around 16,250
Bank Nifty has to lead any recovery for the market
Bank Nifty’s 200 DMA placed 800 points lower at 36,848
On Nifty, first resistance will be at 200 DMA of 17,000

No trade till policy. Only after that you should approach.

Worked!

I would now recommend exiting all your day trades as market will become very volatile.

I don't claim to get everything right. I am human 😊😊

Good morning

GLOBAL ROUT
US markets lead big risk off again
Credit Suisse issue raising Lehman fears
Fed’s closed door meet scheduled for today
Big question: Has the Fed overtightened already?
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Friday’s big rally raises decoupling hopes
Indian market has been a rank outperformer
Nifty’s major support at 200 DEMA of 16,877
Friday low of 16,747 now line in sand for bulls
Today’s move will test market’s texture
If first hour low is protected, market may rally
Bank Nifty will be the most important index
Bank Nifty rallied 3% on Friday, is market leader
FIIs still massively short, net shorts at 1.14 lakh contracts
For day traders, SGX Nifty low will be risk-reward pivot

Good morning

good morning

MARKET SETUP
Global cues positive, India outperforming
Indian market showing decoupling signs on bad days
Market’s texture is now “Buy on dips”
Domestic economy stocks to lead
Crude could be a worry going forward
Weekly expiry today

INSTITUTIONAL DATA
FIIs and DIIs both buy, net buy Rs 2300 cr
Massive short covering by FIIs on Tuesday
FIIs covered 36,000 shorts on Tuesday
FII shorts now down to 92,000 contracts

NIFTY
Base has now moved up to 17,200
Resistance zone would be at 20 DMA of 17,490

BANK NIFTY
Bank Nifty is the firm leader for markets
Base has now moved up to 38,500
Resistance zone at 20 DMA of 39,840