TRADE SETUP
Market now in oversold territory
Put Call ratio, FII stats in oversold zone
First rally can be sold into today due to sentiment
IT’s selling yesterday despite TCS nos was brutal

NIFTY SETUP
Nifty closed at 200 DMA, third test of 200 DMA
Anecdotally, third test of 200 DMA breaches it
On closing, 16,818 now becomes sacrosanct
Below 16,818, Nifty would mark a lower low
Break of 16,818 opens door to 16,450
On upside, strength returns only on close above 17,350

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Bank Nifty showing signs of giving up outperformance
No major Put build-up till 38,000
First major support for Bank Nifty at 38,500
Aggressive Call build-up at 39,500 and 39,000
Keep an eye on ICICI Bank and SBI

Good morning

FRIDAY CHEER
US markets rally big despite hot inflation
Relief rally plays out after event is over
Bulls betting that inflation high but has peaked
Back home, markets halted at major support
Infosys posts best in class numbers
Big short covering expected today

GLOBAL CUES
US Bond yields, Dollar little changed
Market positioning was very bearish
S&P 500 bounced from exact 52-week low
Basic structure of US market is weak
For India, Dollar,Crude and bond yield important
((IMF))

TRADE SETUP
FII Net Sell 1,636.43 Cr in Cash
DII Net Buy 753.29 Cr in Cash

FII in FNO
On Index Futures
Longs -259
Shorts + 6183

Positioning on Index Futures
Longs 19%
Shorts 81%

Nifty PCR at 1.06 vs 0.95

NIFTY SETUP
Nifty again protected 200 DMA on close
SGX Nifty indicating 250 point gap up
For today, don’t even think about shorting
Markets might have a massive short covering day
Possible to see Nifty test 17,400-17,500 today itself
Market extremely short, will trap Call writers
17000 Call added 32 lakh shares, prem Rs 200
17200 Call added 19 lakh shares, prem Rs 100
Above 17,325, major resistance only at 17,500

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Once again, Bank Nifty didn’t break 38,500
38,500 will be now a base for Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty may see a 1000 point rally today
Possible to see Bank Nifty cross 39,500 today

TODAY’S SETUP
Global markets once again nervous
Second day reaction always more important
US Bond yields inch up again to 4 mark
Dollar Index approaching 113
Escalation of Russia-Ukraine war a worry
India’s outperformance may continue

NIFTY SETUP
First support at 200 DMA of 16,990
Biggest support at 16,950
Nifty has bounced thrice from 16,950
On upside, first resistance at 17,350
Major resistance at 17,350

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Bank Nifty stronger than Nifty so far
Bank Nifty still in 20 and 50 DMA trajectory
Bank Nifty’s major support at 38,400-38,500
First resistance at Friday high of 39,570

Good morning

GLOBAL SETUP
Unless US market collapses, India won’t fall due to US
Brent crude has shown signs of major cool off again
If crude falls beloe $85, India can hit new highs
 
NIFTY SETUP
Nifty finally set to open above the 17,350 resistance
For traders 17,450-17,500 will be profit booking zone
Risk-reward will not favour fresh entry at 17,450-17,500
Nifty’s 50 DMA also placed close to 17,500
If Nifty closes above 17,500, can lead to 17,800
On downside, Nifty’s support now firmly at 17,250
17,250 now stop loss for all positional longs
 
BANK NIFTY SETUP
Bank Nifty set to open above the 40,000 mark
Next congestion zone for Bank Nifty at 40,500
No major Call writing till 40,500 on Bank Nifty
40,500 will be profit booking zone for Bank Nifty
Fresh entry has to be made on decline
Weekly expiry of Fin Nifty today
Fin Nifty has all Banks and NBFCs
Fin Nifty captures move in HDFC twins and Bajaj twins
 
 

Good morning

RETAIL WINS AGAIN
Nifty has moved from 16800 to 17500
FII shorts are now half of peak
FIIs are getting beaten for 4th time
FIIs showing signs of putting cash to work

GLOBAL CUES: NASDAQ IN FOCUS
Nasdaq approaching 20 DMA
Above 20 DMA, another 10% rally possible
Indian IT stocks also showing relief rally
Nifty IT now above 20, 50 and 100 DMA
Nifty IT’s 200 DMA is 10% away

NIFTY SETUP
Nifty facing resistance at 50 DMA around 17,500
Above 17,550, no major resistance for Nifty till 17,800
Heavy Put writing at 17400 and 17500 yesterday
17,400 and 17,500 Puts added 1 cr shares in Open Int

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Bank Nifty getting ready for fresh all-time highs
Aggressive Put writing at 40,200 and 40,300
Every dip on Bank Nifty is getting bought
ICICI, SBI strong, now Axis and Kotak Bank joining
HDFC Bank needs to provide final flourish

This is what we had discussed. Retail vs FII

My stock to watch today is Aarti Ind

AARTI IND IN FOCUS
Stock 1 year change
Navin Fluorine +11%
SRF +11%
Aarti Ind -32%

AARTI IND IN FOCUS
Ex date of Pharma demerger today
Now standalone chemical entity will trade

Good morning

THE NAME’S BOND!
US Bond market send fear factor to globe
Dollar-Rupee saw sharp move to 83 in late trade
Weekly options expiry today
Big question: Will the Buy on dips play out again?

NIFTY SETUP
SGX Nifty indicating start in support zone
Nifty has first support at 17,350
17,350-17,250 is a big support zone
Buying in 17,250-17,350 zone has good risk-reward
If 17,250 is breached, exit long positions

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Currency move impacted Bank Nifty yesterday
Bank Nifty still the strongest Index
39,500 could be good entry opportunity
Axis nos today, Kotak and ICICI on Saturday

Happy Diwali to all my friends and extended family.

Good morning

START OF NEW SERIES
FIIs at 59% long vs 13% at start of Oct
Nifty gained nearly 1000 points in Oct
Retail triumphed over FIIs for 4th time
US Fed meet on Nov 1 and 2
RBI’s MPC to meet after FOMC
US mid-term elections on Nov 8 big trigger

BACK TO OLD ECONOMY ((For global))
Meta is now down almost 75% from peak
Market’s bets now once again on old economy
In India, old economy has outperformed big
Keep an eye on crude, $98 is key level to watch

NIFTY SETUP
Risk-reward now not in favour of fresh long
Nifty has achieved logical target of 17,800
Just for near-term, short trade may work
Any short trade must have 17,850 as stop
A sharp dip may provide entry opportunity
Nifty’s base has now firmly moved up to 17,500
Buying as close to 17,500 has better risk-reward

BANK NIFTY SETUP
Bank Nifty facing congestion at all-time high
Most Bank nos have beaten street handsomely
Bigger move on Bank Nifty may come post MPC
Bank Nifty’s big base now moved up to 40,500