Good morning

HUGE VOLATILITY
Markets stuck in news from US, China, West Asia
FII buying has disappeared, selling back
Expiry this week, FOMC minutes on Thursday

GLOBAL CUES
Crypto currencies continue the free fall
Bitcoin slips below $16,000
Market worried about contagion risk
Year-end normally doesn’t lead to trend change

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Buying on dips and selling rallies working
For intra-day, yesterday’s low of 18,133 important
From options data, 18,050 is most important support
Nifty needs to protect 18,000 on closing basis
Nifty weak but not breaking down due to Bank Nifty
Nifty’s pressure yesterday mainly due to Reliance
On upside, 18,250-18,300 will be the first major hurdle
If Nifty goes above 18,340, expect bigger moves

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Buying close to 42,200 strategy worked
Bank Nifty’s low yesterday: 42,202
Same strategy today, stop for longs at 42,200
Fin Nifty weekly expiry may lead to volatility
42,200 Put yesterday added 11 lakh shares in OI
42,300 Put added 9 lakh shares in Open Int
Bigger breakout for Bank Nifty above 42,500

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GM

SIGNS OF FRESH BREAKOUT
Markets have gone through consolidation
Yesterday’s last hour gave signs of a breakout
Markets will try to pre-empt US Fed minutes
Expiry tomorrow, US market closed tomorrow

GLOBAL SETUP
Markets now expect slower rate hikes from US
Expectations now of 50 bps hike in December
Signs visible that US inflation has peaked
Dollar Index falls to 107 from 107.7

TRADE SETUP
Nifty PCR at 0.99 vs 0.79
Nifty again bottomed at PCR of 0.7-0.75
FII Net Sell 697.83 Cr in Cash
DII Net Buy 636.39 Cr in Cash

FII in FNO
a. Index Futures
Longs +5297
Shorts -10805

Index Calls
Buying -9,963
Writing -51,088

Index Puts
Buying +9071
Writing +86781

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty has now made a base at rising 20 DMA
Current 20 DMA at 18,113, should hold now
For intra-day, 10 DEMA of 18,234 to be tracked
After gap up, 18,234 will become stop loss for longs
((Show 18,200, 18,300, 18,400 Calls))
For yesterday’s longs, 18,350 will be a good place to book
Big breakout possible if Nifty trades above 18,360

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
42,623 will be a good profit booking zone
42,623 is previous all time high on Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty has seen straddle writing at 42,300
42,300 Call plus Put combined premium at Rs 350
Bigger breakout for Bank Nifty only above 42,650
Move to 44,000 is still open on Bank Nifty

GM

EXPIRY DAY!
Fed minutes in line with what mkts priced in
Heavy Call writing on Nifty at 18,300 and 18,400
Markets going up only on Bank Nifty’s strength
Just for today, Nifty may outperform Bank Nifty
((SGX Nifty))

GLOBAL CUES
US Bond markets have now assumed 50 bps hike in Dec
Last rate hike of 25 bps already assumed in Jan
Biggest global risk for market remains from Crypto
Crude’s decline is macro positive for India

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First level to watch: Yesterday high of 18,325
((Show Nifty Calls: 18,300, 18,400, 18,500))
18,325-18,350 is profit booking zone for Nifty
Short covering to pick up if Nifty sustains above 18,360
Index to track today will be Nifty IT
If Nifty IT sustains gap up, can help Nifty
Reliance has been slipping from highs, key factor

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Trade of Buying Bank Nifty on lower crude is now consensus
Just for today, gap up will provide sell opportunity
42,850-42,950 will be selling opportunity
Shorts on Bank Nifty must have 43,000 as strict stop loss
Structurally, targets of 44,000 on Bank Nifty intact
Best buy zone on Bank Nifty now will be around 42,500

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