Markets gave a full toss today

Look at Nifty IT and IT stocks

Good morning

FOMC: FEDERAL OPEN MOUTH COMMITTEE?
James Bullard says something Bullard would say
Market nervous about more rate hikes than expected
“Buy on dips” has worked out so far
Profit taking at all time high is perfectly normal
Mid and small caps have started a fresh rally

GLOBAL CUES
No major impact from Fed on Dollar or US bond yields
Marginal impact on Crude, up to $84/bbl
China’s pain is India’s gain, FII flows may pick up
Clear signs of ETF buying returning to India

TRADE SETUP
Cash Market Flows
FII +936 Cr
DII +88 Cr

Reliance saw delivery volume of Rs 1825 cr

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +1414 Cr
Long +15800
Short +700

FII Longs in Index Futures
Nov 24 77%
Nov 25 71%
Nov 28 73%

Nifty Put Call ratio at 1.28 vs 1.17
Intra-day Put Call ratio went to 1.45

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about 18,500 Put writer
18,500 Put has 1.05 cr Open Interest, prem Rs 50
First level to watch on Nifty is 18,450
Once again, first trade will be to Buy the dip
18,400-18,450 best add zone with 18,350 as stop
For positional longs, stop loss remains at 18,250
No thoughts of shorting till 18,250

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s first support at 42,800
Buying at 42,800 has worked so far
Stop loss for Bank Nifty longs at 42,500
No thoughts of shorting till 42,500
Fin Nifty expiry may have impact on Bank Nifty

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Good morning

EVENT DRIVEN MARKETS
GDP data in evening
Fed Chairman Powell to speak today
RBI policy next week
Gujarat polls end next week
Yesterday’s market action disappointing

GLOBAL CUES
US yield, Brent up, Dollar Index flat
On margin, global cues are negative
India has been ignoring weak global cues
Not many willing to pre-empt Powell speech
Powell’s speech last time led to big decline

TRADE SETUP
Cash Market Flows:
FII +1242 Cr
DII -744 Cr

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +340 Cr
Long +5000
Short +1400

FIIs in Index Futures
Long 73%
Short 27%

Nifty PCR at 1.27 vs 1.28

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Risk-reward not favourable for fresh buying
First base zone for Nifty at 18,550
Bigger support zone for Nifty at 18,450
Buying between 18,450-18,550 better strategy
Call writing has shifted to 18,700, premium Rs 27
If Nifty crosses 18,730, will lead to big rally

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show 43,000 Call
Show 43,200 Call
Bank Nifty remains very strong
Bank Nifty not even testing 5 or 10 DEMA

Never short a dull market!!!

Most things in markets are simple.

What a move!!! Write this again: "Never short a dull market"

GM

SANTA JEROME POWELL!
Jerome Powell’s speech fuel massive rally
Nasdaq leads rally, cryptos join in
Market only focusing on moderation part of speech
Powell also said bigger question still is how much more hike
US markets are now back in bull market territory

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Yesterday, 18,700 Call writers were mauled
Today’s move will be about 18,800 Call writer
18,800 Call has 78 lakh OI, premium Rs 23
First move will be taking profit from longs
Bigger move possible if Nifty crosses 18,850
Today’s big move is likely in Nifty IT
Playing via IT stocks a better strategy today

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty may see profit taking at 43,500

Bank Nifty morning setup profit booking level: 43,500. Day's high: 43,515, now at 43,150!!!!

IT still outperforming

gm

THE FRIDAY FACTOR
Sharp recovery in US after first hour fall
The big trade in India now remains in IT
PB Fintech’s block deal today will sail through
Bank Nifty may continue to underperform
Mid and Small Caps are in for a massive rally

GLOBAL CUES
US 10-year bond now below 20, 50 and 100 DMA
US 10-year bond yield can slip to 200 DMA of 3.25
US 10-year bond yield now at 3.54 vs peak of 4.34
Nasdaq closed above 100 DMA, next target 200 DMA
Nifty IT trading above all major moving averages
Brent crude has risen to $87/bbl
Nifty IT set to extend gains vs Bank Nifty

NIFTY OUTLOOK
18800, 18850 and 18900 Call
18800, 18500 and 18600 Put
Nifty’s first level to watch: 20 DEMA of 18,742
Nifty’s big support zone now at 50 DEMA of 18,620
Buying zone at 18,750-18,800
Stop loss for intra-day longs at 18,730
Stop loss for positional longs at 18,620
No thoughts of shorting till 18,620
Reliance and IT stocks should help Nifty
Bank Nifty may drag Nifty at highs

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Yesterday’s high was 43,515
Yesterday 43,500 was suggested as profit booking zone
43,500 now remains resistance for Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty is extremely overstretched
10 DEMA on Bank Nifty at 42,872
20 DEMA on Bank Nifty at 42,350
Fresh Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 42,800