Live

Good morning

SOFT CUES
US markets fall in low volume trade
Indian market had priced in rally in US
US 10-year yield at 3.85, fear factor back
Back home, Nifty and Bank Nifty closed near highs
Today’s dip will test market’s texture once more

GLOBAL CUES
Chinese markets continue to do well
Macro China theme will still play out
Metal and commodity stocks may extend gains
Interest rate sensitives may underperform
Nasdaq close to 52-w low, bad for Indian IT
Midcaps and Small Caps may come under pressure

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s range for Nifty: 17,967-18,150
SGX Nifty indicating open in middle of range
No trade at market opening today
Buying near 18,000 and selling near 18,130 may work
Stop for longs at 17,967 and for shorts at 18,150
((Show Nifty 18,000 Call and Put here))

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has huge support at 42,400-42,500
Buying dip with 42,400 as stop should work
If 42,400 breaks, Bank Nifty will become weak
Bank Nifty remains leader for the bulls
Any recovery in market has to be led by Banks

YouTube live.

Good morning

WEAK CUES
US markets showing signs of fresh bear market
Nasdaq already back in bear zone, close to 52-w low
Back home, test of previous low is needed to check strength
Nifty has shown signs of halting at 10 DEMA

GLOBAL CUES
Fresh 52-w closing low for Nasdaq
US Bond yield heading back towards 4
Clear worries that rate hikes will continue in 2023
Financials may continue to outperform IT
Conflicting reports emerging on Chinese front
China theme may do well in 2023

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show 18,100 Put
Show 18,000 Put
First level to watch: 18,068
18,068 was low on Dec 22 and yesterday also
Major support for Nifty: 17,967, this week’s low
If 17,967 breaks, a retest of last week low possible
Expiry today, be very cautious with trades
Massive short covering will happen above yesterday high

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Crucial zone for Bank Nifty: 42,400-42,500
If market recovers, Bank Nifty will lead it
Buying at 42,500 with stop of 42,394 can work
If 42,394 breaks, exit all long positions
Short on Bank Nifty only if 42,394 breaks

From today we go live at 11.30

Bank Nifty Call was buying at 42,500 with stop of 42,394. Today's low was 42,489

What a move in Bank Nifty. Almost 800 points from the levels suggested.

GM

LAST DAY OF 2022
Very strong rally in US
Indian market had already rallied big in last hour
Year-end factors playing out in most markets
Unlikely that market will see a big decline
Real trend for markets will emerge in Jan now
Bank Nifty is in powerful “Buy on dips” mode
Domestic economy stocks will outperform in near-term

GLOBAL CUES
Big relief rally in Nasdaq yesterday from 52-w low
Indian IT stocks may see some relief rally as well
Biggest theme globally remains Chinese opening
Metals Index is up 7% this week, within 2% of life high
If Metals Index crosses highs, can add another 10% fast
Auto and FMCG stocks may cool off on commodity rally

TRADE SETUP
Nifty Put Call ratio at 1.41
Nifty Bank rollover at 86%, Nifty at 79%
FII long exposure at 57% vs 77% in December
Nifty futures at 101 point premium
Bank Nifty futures at 124 point premium

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty likely to open around 20 DEMA of 18,273
Nifty’s 20 day SMA placed at 18,378
18,273-18,378 good zone to book profit
Aggressive traders can short with 18,380 as stop
No buy trade today in gap up
Buying must be done at 18,050-18,100 now

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty back above all moving averages
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 20 DEMA of 42,930
Profit booking zone for Bank Nifty at 43,500
42,400 now Lakshman Rekha for Bank Nifty bulls
Bank Nifty will hit new highs before Nifty

Sorry got late

But look at Metals. That has been my big theme

Live

The setup has worked beautifully again. The call was simple: to short the gap up with stop loss

Bank Nifty approaching the level I mentioned on way down