GM

BIG DAY TODAY
Weekly options expiry today
All-important US inflation data today
Institutions net sellers this month
East Asian markets showing big outperformance
Most market rallies only on short covering
Nifty repeatedly testing 17,800 level
Bank Nifty showed some respite yesterday

GLOBAL CUES
Markets going into inflation with long positions
Nasdaq again leading US markets
Nasdaq has now rallied 9% from Jan lows
US 10-year yield down to 3.54, Dollar at 102.8
Indian IT stocks have shown bottoming signs
China and metals remain unbroken theme
Indian market not falling due to global cues

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about 18,000 Call writer
18,000 Call Open Interest at 1.45 cr shares
Nifty’s 10 DEMA placed at 18,022
Nifty needs to cross 18,022 for big covering
Traders can sell Nifty at 17,950-18,000 with stop of 18,022
Big resistance for Nifty at 20 DEMA of 18,125
On downside, support remains at Dec low of 17,774
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,800-17,850
Traders can buy at 17,800-17850 with stop of 17,774
All positions should be closed at 3:30 today

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty protected Dec lows by 200 points
((Show 42,200, 42,100 and 42,000 Puts and 42,200, 42,300 and 42,100 Calls))
Big resistance for Bank Nifty today at 42,400-42,500

BANK NIFTY
50 DEMA 42,401
10 DEMA 42,550
20 DEMA 42,733

Nifty respected first leg beautifully. Second leg started slightly lower than expected but that also played out 🙏

Good morning

DATA VS PRICE ACTION
Every data point today is positive
US inflation print down once again
India: IIP above and inflation below expectations
Infosys: Margin miss but raises revenue guidance
Indian market has been selling off on all rallies
Today is the biggest test of market’s structure
If today’s gap up is sold, market will become very weak

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Inflation in US was 2022’s problem
Market’s view of inflation different from Fed
US bond market signaling peak rates lower than feared
Nasdaq once again leads rally
Nasdaq is now up 10% from Jan lows
Nifty IT is up 2.7% this week, Nifty Bank flat
Big risk-on rally seen in commodities
Brent Crude surges towards $84/bbl
Investors must have gold, silver this year
China, Taiwan, Hong Hong markets seeing big rally

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 17,900 Call and Put together))
Market has shown signs of breaking range
Nifty has now opened door to 200 DMA of 17,300
Nifty’s declining 20 DMA now at 18,093
17,900-17,950 zone best for fresh shorts
Stop loss for intra-day short trades at 18,000
Stop loss for positional shorts at 18,100
Look at long trade only if Nifty sustains 18,000

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty again defended December lows
Bank Nifty no longer the leader for market
Bank Nifty is now “Sell on rally”
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 42,350-42,450
Stop loss for Bank Nifty shorts at 42,500
Look at long trade only if Bank Nifty sustains 42,500
ICICI Bank looking to test 200 DMA

Good morning

Sorry I forgot to put setup here

This was my view

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Real test of Nifty’s texture over next few days
Nifty has a cluster of moving averages ahead

Nifty Levels
10 DEMA 17,980
20 DEMA 18,090
50 DEMA 18,115

Sell zone for Nifty at 18,000-18,025
Stop loss for short trades at 18,100
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,800-17,825
Stop loss for long trades at 17,750

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see how HDFC Bank opens
Bank Nifty might open above 10 DEMA of 42,426
Big resistance for Bank Nifty at 20 DEMA of 42,653
Sell zone for Bank Nifty at 42,450-42,500
Stop loss for short trades at 42,653
Buy zone for Bank Nifty at 42,300-42,325
Stop loss for long trades at 42,256

Good mornong

MARKET: PING PONG CONTINUES
Indian market falling on its own cues
This month: Nifty IT up 2.3%, Nifty Bank down 2%
Market’s leadership has changed to IT + Metals
Nifty once again fell from 20 DEMA
Bank Nifty failed to rally despite HDFC Bank numbers

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq gains more, crosses 100 DMA
Nasdaq on its way to test 200 DMA
Nifty IT closed marginally above 200 DMA
Nifty IT is now “Buy on dips”
((Show dual window Nifty Bank and Nifty IT intra-day))
Metal stocks likely to extend gains further
Mid and small caps in for a big post budget rally

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty Yesterday Today
10 DEMA 17,980 17,958
20 DEMA 18,090 18,077
50 DEMA 18,115 18,103

Buy zone for Nifty: 17,800-17,850
Stop loss for long trades: 17,750
Sell zone for Nifty: 17,950-18,000
Stop loss for short trades: 18,077

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is now “Sell on rally”
Fin Nifty expiry today may have impact
HDFC Bank’s reaction to nos disappointing
ICICI Bank 40 rupees away from 200 DMA
Sell zone for Bank Nifty 42,250-42,350
Safe short zone for Bank Nifty at 42,450-42,500
Stop loss for short trades at 42,600

Again setup has played out. IT vs Banks

good morning. Really sorry I miss out these days to put setup here

Too much going on.

MARKET: SMART TRADER’S DELIGHT
Market is rewarding smart traders
Buy on support and sell on resistance working
Market now has firm leadership in IT
((Show Nifty IT and Nifty Bank yesterday))
((Show Nifty IT and Nifty Bank over 7 days))
Nifty IT now firmly above 200 DMA
Nifty once again very close to 20 DEMA
Risk-reward not for long trades today

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Many Fed officials to address this week
Big US data today: PPI, Retail sale and IIP
Tesla leads Nasdaq higher, rest markets down
IT stocks are now firmly in “Buy on dips” mode
Money moving from ICICI Bank to Infosys
China theme is still intact

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty will open around 20 DEMA of 18,080
Nifty’s 50 DEMA places at 18,100
Sell zone for Nifty at 18,075-18,125
Stop loss for intra-day short trades at 18,150
Stop loss on closing basis at 18,208
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,900-17,950
Stop loss for short trades at 17,800

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
“Sell on rally” played out in first half yesterday
Last hour rally was purely due to Fin Nifty expiry
Bank Nifty has big resistance in 42,300-42,500 zone
42,300-42,500 is short zone, not buy zone
Stop loss for short trades at 42,600
Buy zone for Bank Nifty is at 41,850-41,900

Good morning

MARKET: AT CROSSROADS
Nifty at “make or break” zone
Weekly expiry today, volatility likely
Nifty, Bank Nifty had good follow up yesterday
HDFC Bank has shown signs of leadership
HDFC Bank within 5% of 52-week high
From Jan 10: HDFC Bk up 4.4%, ICICI up 1%
Very big consumption numbers lined up this week

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Fed officials will keep puncturing rallies
Market has called the bluff of Fed
Market believes terminal rate is near
Nasdaq stocks still outperforming in US
Indian IT stocks still have room for rally
China opening theme on metals to continue
Only global risk factor for India is commodity surge

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show 18150, 18100 and 18000 Puts
Show 18200, 18100 and 18300 Calls
Nifty has seen heavy Put writing
No major Call writing on Nifty now
If Put writers get stuck, Nifty can fall
SGX indicating start around 20 DEMA of 18,090
Today’s texture is “Sell on rally”, stop of 18,200
Big rally likely if Nifty closes above 18,200

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank’s price move has changed texture
Bank Nifty still relatively weak
Bank Nifty’s 20 DEMA placed at 42,581
Highest Open Interest at 42,500 Call
Bank Nifty strength likely only above 42,600
Big rally on Bank Nifty above 42,641

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