MARKET: AT CROSSROADS
Nifty at “make or break” zone
Weekly expiry today, volatility likely
Nifty, Bank Nifty had good follow up yesterday
HDFC Bank has shown signs of leadership
HDFC Bank within 5% of 52-week high
From Jan 10: HDFC Bk up 4.4%, ICICI up 1%
Very big consumption numbers lined up this week

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Fed officials will keep puncturing rallies
Market has called the bluff of Fed
Market believes terminal rate is near
Nasdaq stocks still outperforming in US
Indian IT stocks still have room for rally
China opening theme on metals to continue
Only global risk factor for India is commodity surge

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show 18150, 18100 and 18000 Puts
Show 18200, 18100 and 18300 Calls
Nifty has seen heavy Put writing
No major Call writing on Nifty now
If Put writers get stuck, Nifty can fall
SGX indicating start around 20 DEMA of 18,090
Today’s texture is “Sell on rally”, stop of 18,200
Big rally likely if Nifty closes above 18,200

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank’s price move has changed texture
Bank Nifty still relatively weak
Bank Nifty’s 20 DEMA placed at 42,581
Highest Open Interest at 42,500 Call
Bank Nifty strength likely only above 42,600
Big rally on Bank Nifty above 42,641

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Good morning

STUCK IN RANGE
Nifty in 17,800-18,200 range for exactly 1 month
Since Dec 20, Nifty is closing between 17,800-18,200
Nifty IT closing near highs, Bank Nifty near lows
This month: Nifty IT up 3.5%, Bank Nifty down 1.5%
Start of curtailed monthly expiry week today
7 more full sessions before union budget

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq slipped from 50 DEMA in last hour
Nasdaq now at 20 DEMA, today’s price action important
Dollar-Rupee down from 83.26 to 81.24
Dollar Index now settled below 102
Indian market ready for big post budget rally

NIFTY OUTLOOK
“Sell on rally” worked yesterday
Today looks like a no trade zone on Nifty
Nifty’s near-term range: 18,063-18,155
Nifty’s bigger range: 18,000-18,200
Buying near 18,050 and selling near 18,200 good strategy
Once range breaks, Nifty will expand by 500-600 points

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty still relative weak
HDFC Bank has now assumed leadership
Bank Nifty needs to cross 42,600 for rally
No major downside due to HDFC Bank’s strength
For now, need to play 42,000-42,500 range smartly

Again HDFC Bank's strength overcoming everything else.

Nifty has been no trade

BIG WEEK!
Truncated week with monthly expiry
Last week before union budget
Most results have been very strong
US markets surge, led mainly by Google
FIIs continue to be big sellers in cash market
Buying after a gap up may not be best strategy
Need to see how RIL and ICICI Bk move after gap up

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Big surge in Nasdaq as Google cuts jobs
Market’s hopes: Rates peaking with no recession
IT stocks now buy on all dips
IT Index in bull mkt till its above 200 DMA of 29,114
Money may keep moving from Banks to IT

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 18,100, 18200 and 18300 Call and 18100, 18000 and 18050 Putss))
((Show this plate again))
Nifty High Low
Jan 18 18184 18032
Jan 19 18155 18064
Jan 20 18145 18016

Nifty’s 20 and 50 DEMA both placed around 18,100
First trade on Nifty today will be on Sell side
Sell zone on Nifty: 18,125-18,150
Strict stop loss for all short trades at 18,184
Profit booking zone for short trades at 18,000-18,050
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,975-18,025
Strict stop loss for long trades at 17,950

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Good morning

CLOSE TO A BREAKOUT
Nifty finally showing signs of a breakout
2 closes above 18,250 will confirm breakout
Most Index cos coming out with strong nos
Market has very firm leadership in IT
HDFC twins have added to gains from IT
ICICI Bank is only missing piece in the puzzle
Global cues strong, market pricing in 25 bps hike by Fed

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq has now rallied over 12% from Jan lows
IT Index is up over 13% from 52-week lows
IT stocks are now must have in portfolio
Market betting on peak rates, no recession
Any signs of global reversal will come from Nasdaq
IT, Nasdaq, Hang Seng ETF a good option for investors

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty High Low
Jan 18 18184 18032
Jan 19 18155 18064
Jan 20 18145 18016
Jan 23 18162 18063

Nifty is now in positional long zone
Intra-day longs not making much money
Stop loss for positional longs now at 18,100
Overnight players can hedge using Put options

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty being run single handedly by HDFC Bk
This month: HDFC Bank up 2.8%, ICICI, SBI, Kotak down 2%
Clear signs of money moving from ICICI Bank to HDFC Bank

Impossible to trade Bank Nifty intra-day
Positional stop loss for Bank Nifty now at 42,500

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