Again HDFC Bank's strength overcoming everything else.

Nifty has been no trade

BIG WEEK!
Truncated week with monthly expiry
Last week before union budget
Most results have been very strong
US markets surge, led mainly by Google
FIIs continue to be big sellers in cash market
Buying after a gap up may not be best strategy
Need to see how RIL and ICICI Bk move after gap up

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Big surge in Nasdaq as Google cuts jobs
Market’s hopes: Rates peaking with no recession
IT stocks now buy on all dips
IT Index in bull mkt till its above 200 DMA of 29,114
Money may keep moving from Banks to IT

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 18,100, 18200 and 18300 Call and 18100, 18000 and 18050 Putss))
((Show this plate again))
Nifty High Low
Jan 18 18184 18032
Jan 19 18155 18064
Jan 20 18145 18016

Nifty’s 20 and 50 DEMA both placed around 18,100
First trade on Nifty today will be on Sell side
Sell zone on Nifty: 18,125-18,150
Strict stop loss for all short trades at 18,184
Profit booking zone for short trades at 18,000-18,050
Buy zone for Nifty at 17,975-18,025
Strict stop loss for long trades at 17,950

Good morning

Livr

Good morning

CLOSE TO A BREAKOUT
Nifty finally showing signs of a breakout
2 closes above 18,250 will confirm breakout
Most Index cos coming out with strong nos
Market has very firm leadership in IT
HDFC twins have added to gains from IT
ICICI Bank is only missing piece in the puzzle
Global cues strong, market pricing in 25 bps hike by Fed

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq has now rallied over 12% from Jan lows
IT Index is up over 13% from 52-week lows
IT stocks are now must have in portfolio
Market betting on peak rates, no recession
Any signs of global reversal will come from Nasdaq
IT, Nasdaq, Hang Seng ETF a good option for investors

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty High Low
Jan 18 18184 18032
Jan 19 18155 18064
Jan 20 18145 18016
Jan 23 18162 18063

Nifty is now in positional long zone
Intra-day longs not making much money
Stop loss for positional longs now at 18,100
Overnight players can hedge using Put options

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty being run single handedly by HDFC Bk
This month: HDFC Bank up 2.8%, ICICI, SBI, Kotak down 2%
Clear signs of money moving from ICICI Bank to HDFC Bank

Impossible to trade Bank Nifty intra-day
Positional stop loss for Bank Nifty now at 42,500

Live

Live.

Good morning

NIFTY: LOWER HIGHS, LOWER LOWS
Day High Low
Jan 24 18201 18078
Jan 25 18100 17846
Jan 27 17884 17493
Jan 30 17709 17405

BANK NIFTY: LOWER HIGHS, LOWER LOWS
Day High Low
Jan 24 43078 42615
Jan 25 42733 41540
Jan 27 41417 40148
Jan 30 40789 39419

BAZAR KE BADE SAWAL
Kya Adani ka FPO poora bharega?
Kya market ka sentiment buri tarah bigad chuka hai?
Kya budget ko le kar market mein koi dar hai
FIIs itni selling kyun kar rahe hain? ((Show FII bars here))

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq at very crucial make or break levels
If Nasdaq avoids double top, can rally 10% more
Indian IT stocks still showing “Buy on dips” trend
Chinese PMI at 50.1 vs est of 49.8
China theme is still to play out fully
FIIs selling in India, buying in East Asia

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty holding 200 DEMA on close
Nifty holding 200 DMA on intra-day basis
Alert: 200 DEMA at 17600 and 200 DMA at 17300
Yesterday’s low was just 100 points higher than 200 DMA
((Show the Nifty lower high and lower low plate again))
Nifty needs to make higher low to soothe nerves
Post budget rally possible if no change in tax and fed hikes by 25

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Very strong buying in Banking stocks in last hour
ICICI Bank, SBI led the recovery of last hour
Yesterday’s low now meaningful for Bank Nifty
Need to see post budget behaviour of Bank Nifty
“Buy on dips” and “Sell on rally” both working
((Show Bank Nifty lower low plate again here))

Good morning

MARKET: JUDGEMENT DAY!
Market has all positive cues today
Fed hikes 25 bps, says disinflation started
Adani FPO cancelled, will there be covering?
Budget largely seen positive with no tax hikes
Nifty IT is set to extend leadership
Big question is now around Bank Nifty

ADANI SAGA: MARKET IMPACT
Adani finally withdraws its FPO
Big question now is what happens to shorts
Point to remember: Shorting in both equity, bonds
Time has come for all Banks to make a statement
Indian Banks must disclose their exposure to group

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Meta up 17% in after hours trade
IT stocks will now rally even on small positives
Nasdaq has now negated a major double top
Nasdaq successfully defends 200 DMA
Nifty IT has been trading above 200 DMA
((Show me Nasdaq and Nifty IT 1 year chart))

TRADE SETUP
Institutional Flows
FII bought 1785cr on 1st Feb 2023
1st buy after selling 24k cr in previous 7 sessions
Largest buy since 11-Nov-22

Institutions net bought
01-Feb-23 +2,315cr
Highest since 23-Dec-22

First signs of FII covering shorts in FNO market
Covered 7171 shorts, shorts still at 81%

Change in OI on index Futures- Feb 2023 contract!
Nifty -1%
Nifty Bank -10%

Nifty PCR at 0.70 vs 0.80

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s move is now all about 200 DMA
Nifty low: 17,353, current 200 DMA: 17290
Nifty protected 200 DMA by just 63 points
First test of 200 DMA is normally defended
If there is second test of 200 DMA, its broken
Nifty will have huge support from Nifty IT
This year: Nifty IT up 5%, Nifty Bank down 8%
Market’s texture remains sell on rally
Nifty’s texture changes only on close above 18,000

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s move directly linked to Adani stocks now
If Adani sees short covering, Banks will see covering
If Adani stocks fall again, Bank Nifty will fall again
Crucial level to defend: Yesterday’s low of 39,490
Major support level: 200 DMA of 38,764
Bank Nifty is likely to have 500-1000 point swings
No stop loss will work in Bank Nifty in day trading