END OF A NIGHTMARISH SERIES
Feb series has been extremely volatile
Nifty down 300 points but feels worse
Nifty Next 50 down over 3000 points (7%)
Nifty and Bank Nifty set to test the 200 DMA

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq failed to cross 20 DEMA, closed near low
Nifty IT has a cushion of 100 points above 20 DEMA
Nifty IT runs the risk of making a double top ((Show 6 month chart))
US 10-year bond yield chart very ominous

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Simple strategy today: Sell on gap up
Add more shorts on first red bar after gap up
Keep stop loss of first hour high for intra-day shorts
For positional shorts, stop loss at 17,800
No thoughts of buying till stability emerges
Trend is very weak, 200 DMA of 17,355 possible

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty had extremely bearish close
((Show Bank Nifty 6 month chart))
First close below 40,000 since Oct 2022
Bank Nifty is now headed towards 200 DMA of 39,100
Selling on failure of rally remains the best strategy
Stop loss of first hour high for intra-day shorts
Stop loss of 40,500 for positional shorts

First big trade has already played out on Nifty and Bank Nifty. Now one can book or trail depending on one's appetite

Good morning

LAST 3 MAR SERIES
Nifty Change %Change
Mar 20 -2992 Pts -25.7%
Mar 21 -773 Pts -5.1%
Mar 22 +1217 Pts +7.5%

TRIGGERS FOR MAR SERIES
Global Central Bank Commentary
Geopolitics
End of financial year

FII LONG EXPOSURE IN INDEX FUTURES
Mar: 19%
Feb: 38%
Jan: 57%
Dec: 77%

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
V shape recovery in Nasdaq, global cues positive
US Bond yield cooled off but Dollar still higher
Today, Indian market will do “Sach ka Saamna”
Today we will find out if our market internally weak
Nifty might get big support from Nifty IT today
Nifty IT successfully defended 20 DEMA yesterday

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s texture is still firmly “Sell on rally”
Intra-day pullbacks like yesterday meaningless
Pullbacks happening only because of short covering
Sell zone: 17,550-17,600, stop loss: 17,650
If Nifty closes above 17,650, short covering possible
Stronger shorts will not cover till Nifty above 17,800
Nifty has unfinished business at 200 DMA of 17,362
200 DMA also coincides around budget day lows

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty remains the weakest link for market
Yesterday, Bank Nifty gave 400 points for shorts
Short covering rallies will remain quite suspect
((Show Bank Nifty one month chart))
Bank Nifty’s approach is firmly “Sell on rally”
Sell zone: 40,150-40,350, stop loss: 40,500
If Bank Nifty sustains above 40,500, cover shorts
No thoughts of positional Buy on Bank Nifty yet

Remember to book big profits when you get

https://twitter.com/_anujsinghal/status/1629136746675068928?s=52&t=Elg3Vl49r91TFWr9y2eoUA

Wow. 85k hits on this video. Thanks so much. I will do a follow up on this soon.

GM

GLOBAL MKT SCARED AGAIN
((Show the Bond yield chart I sent))
Indian market among worst performing mkts
Nifty now on longest losing streak since June 2022
Budget day lows now last remaining supports
Both Nifty and Bank Nifty set to test 200 DMA
Nifty IT also now showing signs of exhaustion

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
((Show the Bond yield chart I sent again))
Nasdaq has shown signs of ending the rally
Nasdaq closed way below 10 and 20 DEMA
Last remaining support of 50 DEMA just 20 pts away
Nifty IT closed right at its 20 DEMA
50 DEMA for Nifty IT is placed 500 points lower
Dollar Index above 105 after Nov 2022

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty closed at lowest level since Oct 2022
Budget day low of 17,353 last big support
200 DMA also placed closely at 17,368
Stop loss for Positional shorts at close above 17,575
Risk-reward does not favour a fresh short here
Nifty likely to defend 17,353-17,368 once
Buy zone: 17,400-17,425, stop loss: 17,325
Buying to be done strictly on intra-day
Bigger trade is still “Sell on rally”
Sell zone: 17,550-17,600, stop loss: 17,650

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
2 levels to watch: Budget low and 200 DMA
200 DMA placed at 39,216 and budget low at 39,490
Positionally, Bank Nifty is the weakest index
Stop loss for Positional shortys at close above 40,701
One buy trade may work today intra-day
Buy zone: 39,650-39,850, stop loss: 39,500
Bigger trade is still “Sell on rally”
Sell zone: 40,150-40,300, stop loss: 40,375

Facing technical glitch

Starting soon.

8-DAY LOSING STREAK!
((Show Nifty’s trendline chart))
((Show Nifty IT vs Nifty Bank this week
((Show HDFC twins this week))
Market’s hope is that Bank Nifty has turned
Big question: Can the Nifty protect 16,800-17,000 zone?

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Global markets dealing with fresh rate hike fears
All hopes of rate cuts in 2023 have gone away
Probability of pause in rate hike also low
Nasdaq on verge of breaking its 50 DEMA
Nifty IT is now below 20 and 50 DEMA
Mkt again going back to old economy stocks

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s texture has been “Sell on rally”
Level based trading will not work now
Need to see if Nifty IT is bottoming out
Bank and FMCG stocks have shown signs of buying
Positional shorts should now move closing stop to 17,500
Selling should be done now on failure of rally
Previous green bar’s high should be stop loss for shorts

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has been resilient in last few days
Bank Nifty has refused to break 40,000 on close
Need to see how HDFC Bk, Axis react to news flow
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 40,050-40,200
Stop loss for long trades: 39,950
Stop loss for positional shorts at 40,600 on close

GM

Good morning and Happy Holi everyone

TRUNCATED WEEK
Weekly expiry on Fin Nifty today
Bank Nifty met all upper targets on Friday
Bank Nifty has successfully defended budget lows
Bank Nifty has regained leadership mantle
Today’s trade can be focused on midcaps
Cash buying needed to sustain short covering rally

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Nasdaq had big rally due to cool off in yields
Nasdaq reclaimed 10 DEMA, closed at highs
Test of Nifty IT’s texture today
Just for today, IT stocks may lead the first half

Nifty IT:
Current 29,817
10 DEMA 30,164
20 DEMA 30,246

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty will open in a strong resistance zone
Nifty’s 20 DEMA at 17,646 and 20 DMA at 17,703
Need to see if Nifty is halting in this zone or not
If Nifty doesn’t halt here, second round of buying will happen
If Nifty halts in this zone, it can revisit lower levels
Buy either above 17,703 or on dip of 17,550
Sell trade only if 17,646-17,703 is strongly rejected
Need to see how IT stocks move today

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty may consolidate today
Financial Nifty’s weekly expiry today
Positionally, Bank Nifty remains “Buy on dips”
Stop loss for positional longs now at 40,800
SBI, ICICI Bank showing leadership signs once again