Live.

GM

HUGELY SIGNIFICANT DAY
Big day for global market, Fed’s rate decision today
If Fed hikes to 5.25%, will match highest of this century
Indian market will pre-empt Fed in last 30 minutes of trade
Positional longs can book profit and re-enter tomorrow
Taking any trades home today has some amount of gamble
Bank Nifty showed some signs of tiredness yesterday
Nifty IT’s contra rally will be tested over next couple of days

BIG NEWS IN AVIATION
Go First files for bankruptcy, IPO process was on
Go First news comes when aviation enjoying best period
Indigo rallied yesterday, may gain more today
Wadia group cos like Britannia in focus
Big impact on Bombay Burmah, holds 36% stake in Go

GLOBAL CUES: INDIA IMPACT
Indian market has decoupled from US market
Unless US market collapses, India won’t hurt much
Q1 might be more challenging for IT than Q4
Anecdotally, US recession leads to big rally in India

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Book all positions if Nifty starts to break 18,050
Monday’s big rally had disturbed logical stop loss
Logical stop loss for positional longs at 17,885
Buy zone at 18,000-18,050 if Nifty is stable
Very strict stop loss of 17,950 for intra-day longs
Book all positions at 3:20, take a fresh view tomorrow

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty expiry impacted Bank Nifty yesterday
Crucial day for Bank Nifty today
First support zone for Bank Nifty: 43,100-43,250
Major support for Bank Nifty: 42,800-43,000
No thought of shorting till 42,800 is breached
Buy only if Bank Nifty stabilizes in support 1 or support 2
Very strict stop loss of 42,800 for intra-day and positional longs
Book all positions at 3:20, take a fresh view tomorrow

GM

WEEKLY EXPIRY PLUS FED OUTCOME
Market now believes US fed will pause but not cut
Big drop in US bond yields, Dollar Index approaching 100
India’s macros look strong if Crude continues to tumble
Better to focus on domestic economy stocks again
Nifty’s texture remains “Buy on dips” till 17,885
Big domestic nos today: Hero Moto, HDFC, TVS Motor, Dabur, UB, Tata Power

FEAR IN US, GREED IN INDIA
US markets going through a huge turmoil in regional banks
Big question: Can Indian market stay immune?
Possible that Indian markets continue to chart own way
After some profit taking, market can attempt a fresh high in May

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trading range: 17,980-18,210
Maximum Open Interest at 18,000 Put and 18,200 Call
Traders need to play the Nifty range smartly today
Buy zone: 17,985-18,050, stop loss: 17,950
Sell zone: 18,135-18,185, stop loss: 18,210
If Nifty trades above 18,210, need to chase via Calls
If Nifty trades below 17,950, need to chase via Puts
For positional longs, stop loss of 17,885 remains same

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trading range: 43,100-43,500
Traders need to play the range smartly today
Buy zone for today: 43,000-43,100, stop loss: 42,900
Sell zone: 43,450-43,550, stop loss: 43,600
If 43,600 is crossed, need to chase via Calls
For positional longs, 42,800 remains the stop loss

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Good morning. Hope people made money yesterday. Especially in that afternoon view given on Awaaz. Golden rule of market: If you make huge money on expiry day, stay out the next day. Do anything but trade.

Thats why I didnt put any setup today. Had a sense today will be very tough to make money

Good morning

THE DAY AFTER THE SHOCK
Market was due for one round of selling
Friday’s move would have pulled weak hands out
Friday’s fall was essentially technical, due to HDFC twins
Ex of HDFC twins, market was not too bad
Thursday’s high has now established near-term ceiling
Need to see how Bank Nifty behaves today
Possible to see Nifty and Bank Nifty test 20 DEMA

THE HDFC IMPACT!
HDFC twins accounted for 172 of 186 point Nifty fall
HDFC stock below 20 DEMA, close to 50 DEMA
HDFC Bank below 20 and 50 DEMA, close to 100 DEMA
Delivery selling of Rs 1600 cr in HDFC
Delivery selling of Rs 3000 cr in HDFC Bank
Total delivery selling of Rs 4600 cr in two stocks
Expected outflow due to MSCI factor was Rs 1200-1500 cr
Big question is how much more will HDFC twins fall?

NIFTY OUTLOOK
The day after big red bar can get very volatile
Every rally today will be vulnerable to selling
First support level for Nifty: 18,000
Big support level for Nifty: 17,885
Exit all longs if Nifty starts to break 17,885
Day traders need to see first 30 minutes of trade
If Nifty is stable, try to buy with stop of 17,990 (10 DEMA)
Sell trades will initiate if Nifty starts to fall
For any sell trades, stop loss will be first hour high

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty closed below 10 DEMA of 42,900
Big support at 20 DEMA of 42,333
If 42,333 starts to break, exit all positional longs also
Need to see first hour of trade in Bank Nifty after huge red bar
First hour high and low should be the two markers today
Buy zone: 42,450-42,600, stop loss: 42,333 (20 DEMA)
Sell will initiate if rally starts to fail
For sell trades, first hour high will be the stop loss

good morning

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BACK TO BASICS
Friday and Monday offset each other
Market getting ready to test new highs again
Already at new high: Autos, FMCG, CPSE, Infra, Cap Goods
Within 1-2% of highs: Fin Services, Midcap, Nifty Bank
Ex of IT, most Indian indices already at record highs
FII momentum intact, huge cash inflow chasing momentum

BIG DELIVERY BUYING
Stock Del (Rs cr)
HDFC 1100
HDFC Bank 850
Bajaj Fin 625
ICICI Bank 450
Reliance 600
Tata Motors 500
Maruti 400
M&M 300

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is to buy the dip and add on all dips
First buy zone: 18,200-18,250
Add zone on further dip: 18,170-18,200
Stop loss for all longs: 18,150
((Show 18,200 Put here))
Profit taking zone for today: 18,350-18,400
If 18,420 is crossed, next level to watch: 18,660
No thoughts of shorting till 18,100 is holding

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
“Buy on dips” trade is back on Bank Nifty
First buy zone: 43,000-43,100
Add zone on further dips: 42,900-43,000
Stop loss for all longs: 42,780
Profit taking zone: 43,600-43,700
If 43,700 is crossed, next level to watch: all time high
No thoughts of shorting till 42,780 is holding