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MIXED CUES TODAY
Market fell yesterday under its own weight
Bank Nifty impacted by dividend, Fin Nifty expiry
FIIs continue to buy big, DIIs turn sellers
Global markets nervous on US debt ceiling issue
Market likely to provide fresh entry today

US CUES VS INDIA CUES
S&P 500 closed below 20 DEMA
S&P 500 very close to 200 DMA
Nasdaq still very strong, above all averages
Fund managers see a correction around month-end
Indian market has so far ignored US market fall
If S&P falls below 200 DMA, will be tough to ignore
Any correction in India will be buying opportunity
RBI now has fire power to be dovish in next policy
Consumption, NBFC stocks have seen huge rally

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support for Nifty at 18,223 (10 DEMA)
Big support zone for Nifty at 18,100-18,200
Buy zone for Nifty: 18,200-18,240 on stability
Stop loss for all long trades: 18,100
First resistance zone at 18,380
Big resistance level: 18,450

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty facing resistance at high of 44,151
2 days in a row Bank Nifty has retreated from highs
Bank Nifty extremely overbought, some correction healthy
Bank Nifty is now a buy only if it closes above 44,151
Bank Nifty runs the risk of a double top at previous high
Best buy zone for fresh positional longs: 42,928-43,500
10 DEMA placed at 43,500 and 20 DEMA at 42,928

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HAS MARKET TURNED?
First back to back fall in Nifty since Apr 18
Bank Nifty closed below crucial support of 43,800
Nifty and Bank Nifty showing signs of 20 DEMA test
If today’s gap up is sold into, texture will turn weak
Second half of earnings season showing some poor nos
Weekly expiry today, this contract has belonged to Call writers

BIG CUES TODAY
Weekly expiry today with heavyweight numbers
ITC and SBI nos today, both make big moves on nos
For SBI, all eye will be on the provisioning numbers
For Nifty, heavy Call writing at 18,200-18,300 range
On Bank Nifty, heavy Call writing at 43,600-43,800 range
Today’s closing is going to be extremely important

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Nifty 18200 and 18250 Call in 1 plate))
Big resistance zone from options: 18,241-18,270
Big resistance zone technically: 18,309 (Yesterday’s high)
Sell zone for today: 18,241-18,270, stop: 18,309
First support zone for Nifty: 18,115 (yesterday’s low)
Big support level for Nifty: 18,050 (20 DEMA)
Buy zone for Nifty: 18,100-18,150, stop: 18,050

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
((43600 and 43800 Call in 1 plate))
Big resistance zone from options: 43,812-43,900
Big resistance zone technically: 43,993 (Yesterday’s high)
Sell zone for today: 43,812-43,900, stop: 44,000
First support zone for today: 43,446 (Yesterday’s low)
Support zone from options data: 43,460
Buy zone for today: 43,500-43,600, stop: 43,446
For all positional longs, trailing stop at close below 43,450

Today: Nifty respected what I call "Plan your trade and then trade your plan"

Slipped right from sell zone after gap up, respected the stop and exactly went to first support zone (profit taking level)

Today's close is also important. Its now 3 days of back to back fall

And confirms a near-term top. Now lets watch out if 20 DEMA holds or not

GM

3 DAYS OF SELLING
Market beautifully respected “Sell on rally” trade
Friday factor today, Nifty likely to be in a range
Nifty very close to 20 DEMA support of 18,064
Risk-reward not in favour of shorts at 18,100
SBI, ITC earnings failed to evoke “Wow” response

FRIDAY CHEER OR “FRY”DAY?
Today is extremely important day for market
Last time Nifty fell 3 days was Apr 17, 18 and 19
Nifty consolidated for next 2 days and then rallied big
If Nifty makes higher low today, will be very positive
All long trades must have strict stop losses
Bank Nifty has still not shown breakdown signs

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Base case: Nifty to move in 100 points band today
Possible range of 18,100-18,200 likely today
Avoid Nifty trading today, focus on stocks
Sell zone: 18,175-18,225, stop: 18,250
Buy zone: 18,100-18,125, stop: 18,050
If 18,050 starts to break, get out of positional longs
If 18,350 starts to break, get out of positional shorts

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty made higher high and higher low
Bank Nifty still in “Buy on dips” mode
Most Banks came out with good earnings
Big question: Was this peak earnings quarter?
Buy zone: 43,700-43,800, stop: 43,650
Sell zone: 44,000-44,100, stop: 44,175

On Nifty both legs have played out today. This is all you should aim on a day like today. 🙏