GM

MUMBAI RAIN MATLAB MARKET GAIN
Markets normally rally on first pre monsoon rain day in Mumbai
Yesterday’s close was very strong
Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have defended 20 DMA and 20 DEMA
Big rally likely once the US debt ceiling deadlock is broken

MARKET IN MAY SERIES
Index %
Nifty 2.3%
Nifty Bank 1.6%
Nifty IT 5.8%
Nifty Midcap 5.7%
Smallcap 4.9%
Nifty Auto 7.3%
Nifty Realty 5.3%
Nifty FMCG 4.9%

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s first support at rising 20 DMA
Yesterday’s low was exactly at 20 DMA
Current 20 DMA at 18,223, current 20 DEMA at 18,160
Market’s texture is “Buy on dips” and “Sell on rally”
First support zone: 18,200-18,260
All important support zone: 18,150-18,200
Buy at open and add in 18,200-18,260 zone
Very strict and tight stop loss of 18,150
Profit taking zone: 18,350-18,400
No sell trade in Nifty yet

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty bounced exactly from 20 DEMA
Current 20 DMA at 43,546 and 20 DEMA at 43,363
Highest options build up at 43,500 Put and 44,000 Call
First support level: 43,450-43,500
Most important support level: 43,350-43,400
Need to see behaviour of HDFC Bank
HDFC Bank has started to see big underperformance
All rallies of Bank Nifty punctured by HDFC Bank (Show 1 month chart)
Buy Bank Nifty on stability in support 1, stop of 43,350
Sell Bank Nifty on weakness, stop loss: 43,800

The rain theory never fails. There are some times in life when you dont apply technicals or fundamentals - just your experience :)

Good morning. The Bank Nifty will hit all time high and even attempt 45000 as I have maintained as consistent view for May. Today will be a good day to book profit and step aside. 🙏🙏

BUY IN MAY AND GO AWAY!
Debt ceiling deal leads to party in global market
Bank Nifty set to start at a new all time high
Midcap Index also set to start at a new high
Nifty likely to get very close to all time high
Today will be good day to take short-term profit on Index
Big question: Can the Nifty now race towards 20,000?

PREMATURE CELEBRATION?
Global markets celebrating US debt deal
US inflation still high, economy very strong
Risk of this current rally getting sold into in US
Indian market has been moving on its own speed
Now is a good time to rebalance portfolio
Investors must use this rally to exit poor stocks
Some cash levels should be raised in this rally

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Friday’s view was to buy at open and carry
Today’s first trade is to book profit and step aside
No point chasing last 100-150 point move
Profit booking zone: 18,650-18,700
Today, Nifty unlikely to give you intra-day profit
US market closed tonight, need to watch news flow
Sell trade will open if Nifty starts to reject 18,700
Strict stop loss for intra-day shorts: 18,750
First sign of profit taking will be visible in IT stocks

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is set to zoom in open
Bank Nifty has consolidated for 6 days in a row
Conviction of new highs in May will prove right today
Profit taking zone: 44,550-44,750
No thoughts of shorting, but book profit on longs
At 45,000, Bank Nifty will become very expensive

Good morning

CHASE THE BUS OR WAIT FOR NEXT?
Those in the bus from 17,000 can stay inside
Those who missed the bus should wait for next and not chase
Nifty and Bank Nifty very close to logical targets
Nifty close to 18,650, Bank Nifty close to 44,500
Current swing can extend max to 18,700 and 45,000
Better entry opportunities likely in month of June
Big FII buying yesterday indicates momentum still strong
For risk-reward, better opportunity at 18,450 and 44,000

EXPLAINING FII NUMBERS
FIIs net bought Rs 1758 cr in cash markets
Delivery volume of Rs 2,500 cr in HDFC twins
Delivery volume of nearly Rs 500 cr in ITC
Ex of 3 stocks, no major delivery buying yesterday
Selling seen in large cap and midcap IT stocks
Possible that market now goes through distribution
Advance decline yesterday was 1.2:1
If advance/decline starts to fall, will be warning signal
If adv/dec is strong, then market will start next upward move

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Yesterday, Nifty marked open = high
No money was made in intra-day trades
Nifty traded in 60 point band after the gap up
For today, first range is 18,581-18641 (yesterday’s range)
Bigger range is 18,500-18,700
Couple of more day of consolidation is possible
Fin Nifty expiry today, Congress decision on debt deal tomorrow
Buy zone for today: 18,475-18,550, stop loss: 18,400
Sell zone for today: 18,640-18,700, stop loss: 18,750
Need to see behaviour of IT stocks once again today

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty was stronger than Nifty yesterday
Bank Nifty has one more swing left towards 45,000
For near-term traders, 44,500-44,750 is profit booking zone
No thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty yet
Buy zone for today: 44,150-44,250, stop loss: 44,050
HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank key stocks to watch

44499 high for Bank Nifty. Just 1 point reh gaya.

GM

TOPPING OUT SIGNS?
Market has shown first signs of near-term top
Advance/decline getting weak for last few days
Yesterday, more declining stocks than advancing
Block deals picking up, many promoters selling
Some blocks: Sona, HDFC Life, Mah CIE, Vedant Fashions, Clean Science, Star Health
In March, many promoters had done creeping buys
Market has not yet shown signs of shorting
Nifty is just 1.3% away from all-time high
Risk-reward is not in favour of fresh long positions
Existing long positions should hedge or trail stops

CUES FOR THE DAY
Most important cue: Congress voting on debt deal
US markets nowhere close to what futures indicated
D-1 day of first weekly contract of June series
Earnings season is over, next cue will be RBI policy
RBI policy scheduled for June 6-8
Possible that the market goes through some consolidation now
FII buying momentum remains strong
Large cap valuations now extremely stretched

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty traded in 80 point range, after 60 point on Monday
Trading range for today: 18,575-18,662 (Yesterday’s range)
Bigger range for today: 18,500-18,700 (Option writer’s edges)
Buy zone: 18,575-18,600, stop loss: 18,500
Sell zone: 18,675-18,725, stop loss: 18,750
Keep an eye on Reliance and Infosys for any range break
For fresh positional trades, wait till a correction of 18,300-18,450

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty very close to huge resistance
First resistance for Bank Nifty: 44,500-44,650 (Call writer’s base)
Big resistance for Bank Nifty: 44,750-45,000
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 44,100-44,200, stop: 44,000
Sell zone for Bank Nifty: 44,500-44,650, stop: 44,750
Fresh entry for positional traders around 44,000-44,100

Good morning

LAST HOUR MSCI MAGIC
MSCI inflows save markets from a bad close
Kotak closed at 2014 in cash and 1957 in futures
Good chance that Kotak will start 2-3% lower today
Bank Nifty recovered 300 points to close above 44,000
Today’s big trigger is decline in global commodity prices
Delivery volume of Rs 12,000 cr in Kotak Mah Bank
FII gross volumes at all time high yesterday
Risk-reward not in favour of fresh longs
Market now needs a healthy correction before fresh rally

MACRO AND MICRO: LOOKING STRONG
Indian macro looking very strong
GDP much better than estimates, inflation cooling
Big decline in commodity prices to be helpful
Auto sales data would be another data to track
Auto stocks have seen huge rally, valuations high
Q4 earnings season way better than estimates
Focusing on stocks with commodity tailwinds makes sense

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Near-term texture now “Sell on rally” and “Buy on dips”
Yesterday’s low now the first important support (18483)
Biggest support at 20 DEMA and 20 DMA (18,300-18,325)
Bank Nifty unlikely to support Nifty’s move from here
Bulk of Nifty’s move likely from IT and Autos/FMCG
Sell zone: 18,550-18,600, stop loss: 18,650
Buy zone: 18,400-18,450, stop loss: 18,300
Today’s focus should be on commodity consuming stocks

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 44,305-44,368 (Call writer’s zone)
Biggest resistance zone: 44,500-44,600
First support level: 43,900-43,930 (Put writer’s zone)
Biggest support zone: 43,822 (yesterday’s low)
Buy zone: 43,850-43,900, stop loss: 43,800
If 43,800 is broken decisively, get out of all longs
Sell trade on breakdown of 43,800 or on rejection of 44,368
For all sell trades, stop loss should be first hour high

Good morning. I am down with a bad bout of viral fever. Hope to resume from Monday.

No setup today. Trade safe.

Good morning