LAST HOUR MSCI MAGIC
MSCI inflows save markets from a bad close
Kotak closed at 2014 in cash and 1957 in futures
Good chance that Kotak will start 2-3% lower today
Bank Nifty recovered 300 points to close above 44,000
Today’s big trigger is decline in global commodity prices
Delivery volume of Rs 12,000 cr in Kotak Mah Bank
FII gross volumes at all time high yesterday
Risk-reward not in favour of fresh longs
Market now needs a healthy correction before fresh rally

MACRO AND MICRO: LOOKING STRONG
Indian macro looking very strong
GDP much better than estimates, inflation cooling
Big decline in commodity prices to be helpful
Auto sales data would be another data to track
Auto stocks have seen huge rally, valuations high
Q4 earnings season way better than estimates
Focusing on stocks with commodity tailwinds makes sense

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Near-term texture now “Sell on rally” and “Buy on dips”
Yesterday’s low now the first important support (18483)
Biggest support at 20 DEMA and 20 DMA (18,300-18,325)
Bank Nifty unlikely to support Nifty’s move from here
Bulk of Nifty’s move likely from IT and Autos/FMCG
Sell zone: 18,550-18,600, stop loss: 18,650
Buy zone: 18,400-18,450, stop loss: 18,300
Today’s focus should be on commodity consuming stocks

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 44,305-44,368 (Call writer’s zone)
Biggest resistance zone: 44,500-44,600
First support level: 43,900-43,930 (Put writer’s zone)
Biggest support zone: 43,822 (yesterday’s low)
Buy zone: 43,850-43,900, stop loss: 43,800
If 43,800 is broken decisively, get out of all longs
Sell trade on breakdown of 43,800 or on rejection of 44,368
For all sell trades, stop loss should be first hour high

Good morning. I am down with a bad bout of viral fever. Hope to resume from Monday.

No setup today. Trade safe.

Good morning

MARKET: IN A RANGE
3 back to back days of ranged trading
US mkts surge but cues negative for India
Dollar, Bond yields and Crude all have gone up
RBI policy this week most important cue
Nifty will see some resistance towards new highs
Near-term leadership likely to remain with IT

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today, Nifty IT and Nifty bank may move differently
Nifty IT likely to outperform Nifty Bank
First resistance zone: 18,650-18,700
Biggest resistance zone: 18,700-18,800
Sell zone: 18,625-18,675, stop: 18,700
First support zone: 18,450-18,500
Buy zone: 18,500-18,550, stop loss: 18,450

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty faces headwinds at higher levels
First supply zone: 44,250-44,300
Biggest supply zone: 44,500-44,600
Sell Bank Nifty if rally starts to fail
Stop loss for Sell trades: First hour high
First support zone: 43,800-43,900
Biggest support zone: 43,400-43,500
Buy zone: 43,700-43,800, stop loss: 43,500

Good morning

STUCK ON THE EDGES
Day Nifty High Nifty low
June 6 18,622 18,531
June 5 18,640 18,582
June 2 18,573 18,478
June 1 18,580 18,464
May 30 18,662 18,575
May 29 18,641 18,581

Nifty: Close on May 29: 18,599
Nifty: Close on June 6: 18,599
Nifty at same level as on day 1 of June series
Total Nifty range of 198 points in June series

BIG WEEK FOR MARKET
RBI policy tomorrow, market expects pause
FII buying back after 3 days of selling
Nifty 1.5% away from all-time high of 18,887
Broad market outperforming, Midcap Index at highs
Advance/decline has been strong for many days
US markets have hit fresh 2023 highs

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Playing the range of 18,500-18,650 is working
First resistance zone: 18,625-18,650
Bigger resistance zone: 18,700-18,800
First support zone: 18,500-18,550
Bigger support zone: 18,400-18,500
Sell zone: 18,625-18,650, stop loss: 18,700
Buy zone: 18,500-18,550, stop loss: 18,450
If 18,700 sustains, chase via Calls
If 18,450 is broken, chase through Puts

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Smaller range for today: 44,000-44,250
Resistance zone: 44,250-44,500
Support zone: 43,800-44,000
Sell zone: 44,250-44,400, stop: 44,500
Buy zone: 43,900-44,100, stop: 43,800
If 44,500 is crossed, chase via Calls

Good mornning

BACK IN THE RANGE
Nifty lost 200 points from Thursday morning
All-time high of 18,887 now over 300 points away
No signs of reversal yet, market buying time
Large stocks like Reliance, HDFC twins, Infy under pressure
Broader market still looks very strong
Block deals continue to pick up, latest is Go Fashions

DATA DRIVEN WEEK
Indian CPI data to be released today
Inflation seen dropping to 20 month low
If inflation drops near 4%, market can rally big
Big inflation data and FOMC meet in US as well
Market pricing in pause from Fed

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 18,650-18,700
Bigger resistance zone: 18,700-18,800
Sell zone: 18,600-18,650, stop: 18,700
First support zone: 18,500-18,550
Most important support: 18,443 (20 DEMA)
Possible that Nifty tests 20 DEMA once again
Nifty protected 20 DEMA twice in May
Buy zone: 18,450-18,500, stop: 18,400

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is trading near 20 DMA of 43,987
20 DEMA is placed at 43,873
Bank Nifty has protected 20 DEMA on close
First support zone: 43,800-43,850
Most important support: 43,500-43,00
First resistance zone: 44,100-44,300
Biggest resistance zone: 44,400-44,500
Sell zone: 44,100-44,200, stop loss: 44,300
Buy zone: 43,800-43,900, stop: 43,700

Good morning

MACRO CHEER FOR MARKET
INDIA'S INFLATION PICTURE
CPI (%)
April 4.7
May 4.25

Core CPI (%)
April 5.2
May 5

MANGAL FOR MARKET
Cues positive, market has corrected from top
Market has triggers to attempt all-time highs
Liquidity will improve from June 15 adv tax date
Global cues very strong, Nasdaq leads US markets
Brent crude cools further towards $72/bbl
Fin Nifty expiry today, need to keep HDFC twins on radar
Ex of HDFC twins and Reliance, market at new highs
Broader market has been very strong

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 18,675-18,700 (Options based)
Bigger resistance zone: 18,740-18,800 (Previous swing highs)
First support zone: 18,550-18,600 (Options based)
Bigger support zone: 18,450-18,500 (20 DEMA zone)
Buy at open, add in first support zone of 18,550-18,600
Stop loss for all long trades at 18,450
No short trades unless market rejects first resistance zone

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty again defended 20 DEMA on closing basis
Bank Nifty’s low: 43,874, current 20 DEMA: 43,879
First support zone: 43,800-43,875
Bigger support zone: 43,500-43,600
Buy at open and add in first support zone
Stop loss for all long trades at 43,600
First resistance zone: 44,150-44,200
No short trades unless first resistance is rejected
Bigger resistance zone: 44,400-44,500
Above 44,500, a fast move to 45,000 opens up

Beautiful day for traders 🙏