GM

THE CHINA FACTOR
Second straight day of rate cut by China Central Bank
Clear signs China going all out to revive economy
Big question: Will funds shift from India to China?
Need to keep an eye on commodity prices from here

HAWKISH PAUSE FROM FED
Fed pauses but keeps door open for rate hikes

MARKET: WHAT NEXT?
Market’s focus will now move to monsoon
Nifty should hit all-time high in next few days
Bank Nifty struggling due to technical factors in HDFC Bank
Record date soon for HDFC Bank-HDFC merger
Broader market still has big room for rally from here
Focus on Nifty Junior, still 2000 points off highs
Nifty IT at 200 DMA, make or break zone for big stocks
Metal stocks should have another field day today

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today is weekly expiry, respect Options zone
Options zone: 18,670-18,780
Today’s range for first half: 18,670-18,780
Short covering likely if Nifty starts to cross 18,780
If Nifty sustains above 18,780, can buy 18,800 Call
At lower levels, first support at yesterday's low of 18,690
Buy zone: 18,690-18,720, stop loss: 18,670
If Nifty rejects 18,780, can sell with stop loss of 18,800
A sharp 3 pm move likely, will revisit in Closing

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Low conviction on Bank Nifty due to various factors
HDFC Bank, Kotak weak, block deal in Axis Bank today
Show 44000 Call and 44000 Put in same plate
Today’s first range: 43,850-44,175
Short covering likely if Bank Nifty crosses 44,175
If Bank Nifty sustains 44,175, can buy 44,200 Call
If Bank Nifty breaks 43,850, can buy 43,800 Put

Bank Nifty!!! As soon as 43,850 broke it became weak

GM

FINALLY ITS FRIDAY
Monsoon will be the most important trigger
Mood was spoiled yesterday by Bank Nifty
Liquidity should improve now that June 15 is over
SGX Nifty indicating 65-70 point gap up
Nifty will make one more attempt at all-time high
Need to see if HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank bottom out
ICICI Bank has corrected to 50 DMA, HDFC Bank at 200 DMA

TRIGGERS FOR MARKET
Yesterday’s pressure was due to monsoon news, expiry
Yesterday’s low is now Lakshman Rekha for Nifty, Bank Nifty
No problem in broad market, fresh high for Midcap Index
Focus on individual stocks till Nifty hits new high
Once Nifty sustains new high, fresh move will be very sharp
52-w high number at 220, not yet at euphoria level

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty managed to defend the lower end of options range
Yesterday’s low is now stop loss for all positional longs
First resistance zone today: 18,750-18,800
Bigger resistance zone: 18,800-18,888
Sell zone: 18,750-18,800, stop loss: 18,850
First support zone: 18,650-18,700
Bigger support zone: 18,500-18,600
Buy zone: 18,680-18,730, stop loss: 18,650

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is the weaker component of market
Bank Nifty is now way below 20 DMA of 44,000
Next support for Bank Nifty at 50 DMA of 43,200
Exit all positional longs if 43,200 starts to break
For today. First resistance at 43,600-43,700
Bigger resistance at 43,800-44,000
Sell trade after gap up starts to fail
Sell zone: 43,600-43,700, stop loss: 43,850
Buy trade only on stability, stop loss: Yesterday’s low (43,397)

I will be henceforth putting special videos on Instagram only and not on twitter. So follow me on Insta at @_anujsinghal

GM

AAJ: BAJAR MEIN MANGAL?
Yesterday’s setup was overbought, mkt rejected highs
Today’s setup is oversold, market should bounce back
Fin Nifty expiry today, last 3 expiries have been good
Bank Nifty fell but defended last week’s closing low
Broader market strong, 6th day of new high for midcap
Today’s trade is to buy and add on dip, keep a stop loss

EYE ON THE SKY
Monsoon emerging as the possible party pooper
Not a single day of shower in Konkan, June almost over
Even after late start, monsoon can make up for early deficiency
Monsoon deficiency impacts Autos and Consumption cos most
Autos and Consumption have led the recent bull market
If monsoon starts to improve, Nifty will start journey to 20,000
If monsoon is poor, can expect a correction in market

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Sell 365.20 Cr in Cash (6,412.20- 6,777.40 Cr)
FII Net Sell 1,030.90 Cr in Cash (8,354.90- 9,385.80 Cr)

FII in F&O
FII Net Sell 1324.66 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 1882.91 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Sell -1325 Cr
Long -7630
Short +6540

FIIs in Index Futures
Long 51%
Short 49%

FIIs in Index Futures
Amount Open Int
Nifty -1013 cr -2530
Bank Nifty -311 1435

FII Index Option Selling
Call +64625
Put -50950

INDIA VIX closed at 11.23 up 3.6%

Nifty PCR at 0.98 vs 1.29

F&O Ban:
NEW IN BAN: HAL
STILL IN BAN: MANAPPURAM, INDIACEM, IBULHSGFIN, DELTACORP, L&TFH, TATACHEM, ZEEL
OUT OF BAN: IEX

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s first support at 10 DEMA of 18,686
Bigger support for Nifty at 20 DEMA of 18,582
Buy zone for today: 18,680-18,710
Add zone: 18,625-18,675
Very strict stop loss for all longs: 18,582 (20 DEMA)
Profit booking zone for all long trades: 18,850-18,880
As of now, Nifty’s texture remains “Buy on dips”

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Date High Low
June 15 44,077 43,397
June 16 44,083 43,536
June 19 44,040 43,501

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty trading below all major moving averages
Bank Nifty has underperformed for over 1 month now
((Show one month chart of Bank Nifty))
Bank Nifty needs to defend 43,501 and 43,397
If 43,397 breaks, get out of all longs on Bank Nifty
No trade on Bank Nifty till there is stability
Intra-day if there is stability, can buy with stop of 43,397
For all sell trades, keep a stop loss of 43,733 (20 DEMA)

Buy zone worked 🙏

If Nifty closes above 18,825 then all time high tomorrow

Today I put all details of Trade setup also in my morning message to emphasise why today was a BUY day and not a SELL day

18825 💪🙏

Good chance of new highs tomorrow now. Rememeber India only market in green.

The way 5000 cr blocks absorbed today it tells you kind of market we are in

Good morning. Another 5000 Cr block today in Shriram finance!!!

MARKET: WHY IT RALLIED?
Market respected conviction, ended at highs
5 reasons for market’s rally yesterday
Reason 1: Successful defence of 10 DEMA in rising trend
Reason 2: Absorption of Rs 5,000 cr blocks without any slippage
Reason 3: Broad market showing no weakness at all
Reason 4: Market was oversold in F&O
Reason 5: Fin Nifty’s weekly expiry helped for 4th successive week
Big question: Will the Nifty sustain above all time high?

MARKET: LIFE AT NEW HIGH
Excluding IT, all sectoral indices at or close to new highs
Midcap Index has been hitting new high regularly
Small Cap Index is still 10% away from life highs
Nifty Junior still 3% away from life highs
Auto and FMCG remain the leadership indices
Nifty IT is once again at 200 DMA, make or break zone
HDFC Bank may have bottomed out, can lead Bank Nifty
If HDFC Bank starts to rally, Bank Nifty can end underperformance
HDFC Bank’s ADR premium at 16% now, signs of selling ending

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 1,972.51 Cr in Cash (9,851.71- 7,879.20 Cr)
FII Net Sell 1,942.62 Cr in Cash (11,733.88- 13,676.50 Cr)

FII Net Buy 369.94 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 326.43 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +370 Cr
Long -1150
Short -3950

FIIs in Index Futures
Amount Open Int
Nifty -260 cr -4414
Bank Nifty +624 -771

Nifty PCR at 1.16 vs 0.98

NEW IN BAN: HINDCOPPER, BHEL
STILL IN BAN:, INDIACEM, IBULHSGFIN, DELTACORP, HAL, L&TFH,
OUT OF BAN: MANAPPURAM, TATACHEM, ZEEL

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Profit booking zone: 18,850-18,900
Fresh entry to be done now conditionally
Condition 1: Nifty sustains above 18,900
If Nifty sustains above 18,900, can buy Calls
Condition 2: Nifty dips to support zone of 18,725-18,775
Yesterday’s low of 18,660 now stop loss for all long trades
Sell trade only on rejection of 18,900 with stop loss of 18,925

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty broadly in 43,400-44,000 range
Buying near 43,400 and selling near 44,000 working
For today, profit booking zone at 43,900-44,000
Short trade on rejection of 44,050, stop loss: 44,100
Fresh buy trade strictly in 43,450-43,600 zone: Stop: 43,350
Need to see how HDFC Bank behaves from here
ICICI Bank at 50 DMA, has corrected 3.5% from highs