GM

MARKET: BENEFIT OF DOUBT
Yesterday’s move can be attributed to three reasons
Reason 1: Weekly options expiry, Nifty almost at highs
Reason 2: Market pre-empted MSCI decision on Korea
Reason 3: Profit booking in leading stocks
Today’s midcap action becomes crucial
First real selling in midcaps yesterday in really long time
((Still respected options range of 18762-18938))

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 219.42 Cr in Cash (7,147.83- 6,928.41 Cr)
FII Net Sell 693.28 Cr in Cash (8,947.66- 9,640.94 Cr)

FII Net Buy 325 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 2517 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy 325 Cr
Long Exposure 53%

Nifty PCR at 1.11 vs 1.18

F&O Ban:
NEW IN BAN: RBLBANK
STILL IN BAN: BHEL, HINDCOPPER, L&TFH, PNB
OUT OF BAN: DELTACORP, HAL

Nifty Day’s High
Jun 16 18865
Jun 19 18881
Jun 21 18876
Jun 22 18886

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support zone: 18,700-18,750
Bigger support zone: 18,650-18,700
Look for stability in support zone 1 or 2
Watch for midcap Index and market breadth
On stability buy in first support zone
Stop loss for all long trades now: 18,650
Resistance zone: 18,850-18,888
Sell in 18,850-18,888 zone, stop loss: 18,925
HDFC twins strong, need to see IT, RIL and ICICI Bk

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Date High
June 15 44,077
June 16 44,083
June 19 44,040
June 22 44,042

Bank Nifty respected sell zone yesterday
Bank Nifty in a range of 43,350-44,050
Buy around 43,500 with stop of 43,350
Sell around 44,000 with stop of of 44,100
SBI has become weak, closed below 200 DMA

Had explained HDFC Bank as ahead of curve on tuesday. Now everyone is talking about it :)

GM

BAZAAR MEIN AAJ MANGAL
Yesterday’s session has soothed nerves after last wk’s fall
Broader market has stabilised after 2 days of bad fall
Nifty respected 20 DEMA but saw resistance at 10 DEMA
Nifty’s yesterday’s high at 10 DEMA and low at 20 DEMA
Nifty IT showed signs of restarting a rally yesterday
Infosys has the potential to make higher low, lead recovery
Bank Nifty defending lows but struggling to gain traction
Fin Nifty expiry today, keep an eye on HDFC twins

NIFTY: LOWER LOW AND HIGH PATTERN
Day high Low
June 22 18886 18759
June 23 18756 18647
June 26 18722 18646

MARKET: MONSOON RELIEF
Monsoon has now covered 80% of India
Monsoon deficiency is now down to 23%
Yesterday, Auto and FMCG stocks did well
Auto and FMCG have been market leading sector

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first range: 18,646-18,722 (20 and 10 DEMA)
Today’s bigger range: 18,575-18,830 (options range)
Today’s trade is to buy at open and add on dip
Strict stop loss for all intra-day longs at 18,640
Stop loss for positional longs now at 18,575
Sell only on rejection of 18,750, stop loss of 18,800

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s first range: 43,541-43,773 (yesterday’s high, low)
Today’s bigger range: 43,385-43,881 (Options range)
Need to see HDFC Bank behaviour after yesterday's fall
If HDFC Bank starts to rally, can chase Bank Nifty via Calls
Buy at open and add in 43,450-43,550 zone
Strict stop loss for all intra-day and positional longs: 43,345
Sell trade on rejection of 43,800 with stop loss of 43,900

Setup and HDFC twins both worked out today 🙏

Good morning

NIFTY: NEW HIGHS TODAY?
Market respected setup, ended at day high
HDFC twins lead to massive surge in Fin Nifty
Bank Nifty broke out, closed above 44,100
First close above 44,100 since June 7
Broader market has also stabilized after last week’s scare
Big question: Will Nifty again reject 18,888 or sustain?
Monthly expiry today, momentum is with bulls again

THE HDFC FACTOR
Delivery buying of 56 lakh shares in HDFC (68%)
Delivery buying of nearly Rs 1600 cr in HDFC
Delivery buying of 85 lakh shares in HDFC Bank (50%)
Delivery buying of nearly Rs 1500 cr in HDFC Bank

LIFE AT NEW HIGH
Market has not shown signs of complete euphoria
Only 133 stocks at new 52-week highs
Only red flag so far is promoter and insider selling
Autos, FMCG and Financials will continue to lead market
Large cap IT has shown signs of bottom
Earnings season starts next week, last qtr was good
If this quarter sees upgrades, market won’t look very expensive
Currently Nifty trades at 19x PE, peak normally happens at 22-23x
Stay with good quality stocks, add more on dips
Use every rally to exit poor quality stocks

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Don’t buy at open today, see reaction around new high
If Nifty sustains 18,925, can chase via Calls
Book profit if Nifty struggles around highs
Aggressive traders can short at 18,870-18,890
For any contra short, very tight stop loss of 18,925
Market’s basic texture is still “Buy on dips”
Buy zone on dip: 18,770-18,800, stop: 18,750

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty broke out yesterday
Stay long, add more on every dip
Add zone: 43,850-43,950, stop loss: 43,800
Don’t think about shorting Bank Nifty
Momentum very strong with HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank, SBI showed signs of bottom yesterday
If ICICI Bank and SBI fire, 45,000 is possible

Above 18,925, what momentum 💪

ABKI BAAR 20,000?
Good chance of Nifty hitting 20,000 in July itself
18000-19000 took 21 months, 19000-20000 will be quick
India growth story intact, market nowhere near bubble
Corrections will keep happening, stay invested
Identify strong stocks and buy them on every dip
Big themes: Autos, FMCG, Real Estate and Home improvement

MARKET: CUES TO WATCH
July series starts, Nifty Open Int at 91 lakh
Nifty Open Int higher than 87 lakh at June start
Marketwide Open Int higher than start of June series
Marketwide positions higher due to big rally in Stocks
Big cue to watch will be earnings, especially in IT
Domestic earnings will be strong, IT can be the dark horse

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 18,875-18,925
Bigger support zone: 18,750-18,850
SGX Nifty indicating 100 point gap up
Any intra-day dip needs to be bought
Trailing stop loss for all long positions at 18,875 now
Positional longs should not be in a hurry to book
On every 200 point rally, adjust trailing stop by 100 points
Positional longs should aim at exiting only at 20,000
No thoughts of shorting, even if market starts to fall

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has underperformed in June series
Bank Nifty can outperform after last 2 days breakout
Every dip in Bank Nifty should be used to buy
HDFC Bank is all set to continue leadership position
SBI, ICICI Bank have shown bottoming signs
Bank Nifty can move to 45,000 very fast
Keep trailing stop loss of 43,800 for all longs
For intra-day, buy on dips with first hour low as stop
Absolutely no thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty

TODAY’S BIG STOCKS
MCX:
Stock can be biggest F&O loser
Could not make transition to new software in time
This was a binary event, stock was positioned for rally

HDFC AMC
Big relief on TER front from SEBI
Block deal overhang is over
Needs 10% rally to cross MSCI threshold

GM

NIFTY: PARABOLIC MOVE
No signs of nervousness in market
Fresh move to 20,000 on Nifty has started
Both Bank Nifty and Nifty IT set to participate
Small Cap Index still has room for 10-15% quick rally
Use this rally to exit poor stocks, add good stocks on dip
HDFC twins could see more traction, Morgan Stanley bullish
Monsoon has progressed dramatically well, July to be normal
Auto sales impacted by delayed monsoon, benefit of doubt likely

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 1,197.64 Cr in Cash (10,469.81- 9,272.17 Cr)
FII Net Buy 6,397.13 Cr in Cash (19,439.74- 13,042.61 Cr)

FII Net Buy 1539.93 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Buy 1037.28 Cr in Stock Futures

FIIs in Index Futures
Net Buy +1540 Cr
Long +17000
Short +680

FII Net Long Contracts at 72400

FIIs in Index Futures
Long 69%
Short 31%

Nifty PCR at 1.58 vs 1.40

Delivery buying of Rs 2,500 cr plus in HDFC Bank
Delivery buying of Rs 1,500 cr plus in HDFC
Delivery buying of Rs 1200 cr plus in Infosys

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Positional longs should trail stop loss to 19,000
Book profit today on first sign of trouble
For fresh buying, wait for a dip to 19,000
Market’s texture is 1 step back, 2 forward
No thoughts of shorting, market very strong
Resistance zone for today: 19,250-19,300
If 19,300 is crossed, fast move to 19,500 is possible

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
HDFC Bank should lead Bank Nifty again
Another foreign brokerage resumes coverage
Morgan Stanley has target of Rs 2,110 on HDFC Bank
Profit booking zone for near-term traders: 45,000
Positional longs should trail stop loss now to 44,200
Fresh buy zone: 44,000-44,200
ICICI bank and SBI need to participate for bigger move

Should book profits here