IT stocks ❤️

Good morning

NIFTY: ABKI BAAR 20,000
Nifty has moved from 19,000-19,500 in 10 days
Nifty has good chance of hitting 20,000 in July
Market going through periodic sector rotation
Nifty at 52-w high but only 3 stocks at 52-w high
35 Nifty stocks are 1-5% away from 52-w high
Most important week for the earnings calendar
HDFC Bank today and RIL on Friday
Infosys numbers on 20th, stock filled last quarter’s gap
ICICI Bank and Kotak Bank on Saturday

IT: WHY THE MOVE?
((Show Infosys updated chart))
Infosys now 1% away from 200 DMA
TCS 1.7% away from 52-week high
Tech mahindra hit 52-w high on Friday
HCL Tech 4% away from 52-w high
Market is betting on 2 factors for IT
Factor 1: Q1 bad but things can only improve from here
Factor 2: Valuations should increase if Fed starts to cut rates
Point of max uncertainty leads to point of max gains
((Play Ridham byte))

NIFTY OUTLOOK
((Show 19,500 Call))
19,500 Call sheds 34 lakh shares in Open Int
Nifty has no major resistance now till 19,800
Positional longs should raise stop loss to 19,400 now
After 4 days, stop loss has moved up from 19,300 to 19,400
Fresh entry zone: 19,500-19,550, add zone: 19,450-19,500
Stop loss for all long trades today: 19,400
Absolutely no thoughts of shorting this market

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty still one shade weaker than Nifty
Need to wait for one more day today
HDFC Bank’s nos today, watch out for commentary
Today, avoid taking any premeditated trade on Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty is defending the rising 20 DEMA
Friday’s low was exactly at 20 DEMA, 10 points above stop loss
Trailing stop loss for all longs now at 44,500
Buy zone: 44,600-44,700, stop loss: 44,500
Better view will emerge after HDFC Bank’s nos

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GM

BIG DAY: BROKEN IN PIECES
No contribution of Reliance in market opening today
Reliance will start trading ex of Jio from 10 am today
Some profit taking likely in Reliance between 10-11 am
Those who want only Jio Fin will sell Reliance today
HUL nos will come out in post noon session
Last hour will be about pre-empting numbers from Infosys
Weekly expiry, today is not for weak hearted players
Nifty ended at day high but at resistance level of 19,847

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,851 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 19,876-19,902 (options based)
First support: 19,775 (options based)
Bigger support: 19,725 (yesterday’s low)
Avoid taking any Nifty trade in first hour today
Take Nifty trade after clarity on Reliance price
Today’s trade is to play 19,775-19,875 range smartly
Buy near 19,775 with stop loss of 19,725
Sell near 19,875 with stop loss of 19,900
Sell trade in strictly for intra-day traders
Positionally, stay long with new stop loss of 19,550

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty showing signs of ending underperformance
First support zone: 45,430-45,500 (options based)
Bigger support: 45,100-45,200 (breakout zone)
Stay long with trailing stop loss of 45,100
First resistance: 45,725 (around yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 45,900-46,000 (options based)
45,905 is the record high also for Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty might be a cleaner play today than Nifty
No impact of RIL, HUL or Infosys on Bank Nifty
Buy zone: 45,450-45,550, stop loss: 45,400
Short trade only on rejection of 45,900, stop: 46,000
Short trade strictly for intra-day and not to carry

Buy zone worked beautifully.

Bank Nifty was a cleaner play today :)

Polycab up another 10%!!!. Madness in markets

My first thoughts on Infosys.

GM

INFOSYS: NASTY SURPRISE
Results meet estimates but guidance cut sharply
New guidance at 1-3.5% vs 4-7% earlier
Guidance cut despite Q1 being in line with estimates
All brokerages have cut estimates for EPS
ADR was down nearly 9%, stock should start with 10% fall
Current rally started from Rs 1265, went to nearly 1500
Stock should now fall to start of rally point of 1265
52-week low of 1185 is also possible for Infosys
Between 1200-1250, value investors will buy the stock
Any buying before improvement of nos will be leap of faith
Historically, Infosys doubles in 1-3 years after 40-50% fall from peak

MARKET: WHAT FROM HERE?
Market will now go back to comfort of Bank Nifty
Every rally from here will be sponsored by Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty has opened the door to a rally towards 48,000
ICICI Bank and SBI have shown signs of taking back leadership
ICICI Bank nos on Saturday, stock extremely strong
If SBI delivers strong nos, stock can move to Rs 700 very fast
IT stocks might not outperform from here for some time
Small Cap space getting overbought, need to be cautious

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Trailing stop loss on Nifty longs now at 19,600
First support level: 19,758 (yesterday’s low)
Bigger support level: 19,612 (10 DEMA)
Buy zone: 19,850-19,900
Add zone: 19,700-19,750
Stop loss for all long positions: 19,612
No thoughts of shorting the market yet despite Infosys shocker

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty one shade stronger than Nifty
Approach Bank Nifty via ETF route, do SIP
Bank Nifty is set for a big expansion to 48,000
Buy zone for Bank Nifty: 45,800-46,000
Add zone: 45,500-45,800
Stop loss: 45,100 (previous breakout zone)
ICICI Bank and SBI looking very strong
If HDFC Bank joins the party, Bank Nifty will be unstoppable
No thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty at all