Good morning

BIG DAY TODAY FOR LEADERSHIP STOCKS
ICICI Bank delivers strong nos but margin down sequentially
Brokerages believe ICICI’s nos from here will moderate
Kotak Mahindra nos strong but valuations expensive
Reliance: Decent nos but stock has seen a big rally already
Infosys: Delivery volume of Rs 3,700 cr on Friday
Nifty: 10 DEMA of 19,640 remains the crucial mark
Market’s texture still is “Buy on dips”
((Give me Nifty futures plate))

HUGE WEEK FOR MARKETS
Most important cue: FOMC meet on interest rate
Market’s base case: 25 bps hike and dovish commentary
Surprise only if no rate hike or commentary hawkish
Nifty will react to 22% of earnings today by weight
By expiry, 73% of Nifty weight results will be out

RESULTS THIS WEEK
MONDAY TATA STEEL
TUESDAY ASIAN PAINTS | BAJAJ AUTO | L&T | SBI LIFE | TATA MOTORS
WEDNESDAY AXIS BANK | BAJAJ FINANCE | BPCL | CIPLA | DRL | TATA CONSUMER | TECHM
THURSDAY BAJAJ FINSERV | NESTLE
SATURDAY NTPC

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Those who missed the last rally getting an opportunity.
First support for Nifty: 19,696 (Options based)
Bigger support for Nifty: 19,640 (10 DEMA)
Stop loss for positional longs at close: 19,640
Buy zone today: 19,675-19,725, stop loss: 19,640
On close below 19,640, get out of all long positions
As of now, no shorting thoughts

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is one shade stronger than the Nifty
First support for today: 45,925 (Friday low)
Bigger support for today: 45,750 (Options based)
Stop loss for positional longs: 45,200 (last breakout)
Positional stop deep for Bank Nifty to play for bigger rally
For day traders, buy zone: 45,950-46,050
Add zone: 45,800-45,950, stop loss: 45,700
No thoughts of shorting Bank Nifty

Stocks on my radar

Today's reel topic: "Buy on rumour, sell on news" and "What next for ITC"? Stay tuned for evening.

Reel on ITC

Today’s outlook and stocks to watch.

GM

NIFTY: STRUGGLING FOR LEADERSHIP
Nifty has ended at low point for 2 days in a row
Things were fine till 2:30, last hour was bad
ITC spoiled last hour sentiment, demerger structure bad
HDFC Bank has failed to cross 1700 despite good nos
ICICI Bank failed to sustain above 1000 after stellar nos
Reliance has fallen nearly 5% in 2 days after a big rally
Infosys facing lot of selling pressure on every rally
Only SBI and L&T have shown clear leadership moves
Nifty now at 10 DEMA and very close to trailing stop loss

CUES FOR TODAY
Fin Nifty’s expiry today, last 2 expiries have been bad
L&T’s nos and buyback board meet today
Big nos today: Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Asian Paints, Jubilant Food
FOMC meet starts today, US markets in a big bull run
Market at support, Put Call ratio at 0.81 close to bottom
If today’s rally fails, will be negative for market’s trend
So far, trend is still positive and “Buy on dips”

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,649 (10 DEMA)
Big support: 19,600 (options based)
If Nifty starts to close below 19,600, will be negative
Trailing stop loss for all long traded now at 19,600
Below 19,600, a test of 20 DEMA of 19,450 is possible
For day traders, buy zone at stability above 19,650-19,700 zone
Buy only if Nifty is stable above 19,700 mark
Stop loss for all long trades at 19,600
First resistance: 19,782 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 19,842 (Options based)
Intra-day short trade on rejection of 19,782
Stop loss for all short trades at 19,842

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty is still relatively better placed
Fin Nifty’s expiry today, need to see last hour move
Bank Nifty still much above 5 and 10 DEMA
ICICI Bank’s behaviour today will be most crucial
Yesterday, Canara Bank posted stellar nos
SBI remains on course to hit fresh highs
Need some participation from HDFC bank and Kotak
Bank Nifty’s range: 45,750-46,250
Traders need to play the range smartly

Good morning

GOOD NUMBERS VS COMMODITY SURGE
Both L&T and Tata Motors post stunning nos
L&T approves buyback, Tamo to delist DVR
India Inc got clear advantage of low commodity prices
Surge in commodity prices again can be a big problem
FMCG stocks have led the recent correction in market
Keep an eye on Crude prices, major headwind above $85/bbl
Nifty defended 10 DEMA, closed way off lows
After 2 back to back days, Nifty didn’t close at day’s low

IMPORTANCE OF TODAY
Big day for market for a lot of reasons
Biggest reason: Fed’s outcome, market will pre-empt
7 Nifty cos will declare nos today ((Show the list))
D-1 day of monthly expiry, normally is a trending day
Good chance that Midcap Index will hit new all-time high
Broader market has remained strong, only Nifty struggling
Nifty needs 1-2 big stocks to fire to go to 20,000

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,729 (Yesterday’s open and high)
Bigger resistance: 19,828 (Options based)
First support: 19,662 (10 DEMA)
Bigger support: 19,616 (yesterday’s low)
If 19,600 starts to break, get out of long positions
Buy for intra-day only if Nifty stable above 19,729
If Nifty stable above 19,729, buy with stop of 19,662

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Watch for 3 big stocks: HDFC Bank, ICICI and SBI
HDFC Bank is showing signs of testing previous highs
ICICI Bank stable around 1000 mark, new highs possible
SBI corrected yesterday, crucial day today
Bank Nifty still remains positionally very strong
For fresh breakout, need to cross 46,200 with volume
Traders need to play range of 45,650-46,150 till a breakout
Buy near 45,700 with 45,650 stop
Sell near 46,100 with 46,150 stop
Once 46,200 is crossed, can chase the move

Approach of buying strength above 19,729 worked today. You need to keep adjusting according to markets

GM

FED PLUS EXPIRY, TREND STRONG
Date Nifty Lows Nifty close
20-Jul-23 19,758 19,779
21-Jul-23 19,700 19,745
24-Jul-23 19,658 19,672
25-Jul-23 19,616 19,680
26-Jul-23 19,716 19,778

MARKET CUES TODAY
Fed hikes and stays hawkish but global markets strong
Axis Bank nos good but not as good as ICICI Bank
Dr Reddy’s posts good nos after Cipla’s beat
Bajaj Finance sees upgrades after Q1 nos
Tech Mahindra posts disappointing results, tech in focus

MARKET: WHAT TO EXPECT?
All large Banks nos are out now except SBI
Bank Nifty has shown strength and resilience
Most IT nos extremely weak, visibility poor
2 sectors that can do well today: Metals and Pharma
Metals in focus on China stimulus
Pharma in focus on low chemical prices, US pricing recovery
Reliance or HDFC Bank need to fire to take Nifty to 20,000

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Same strategy as yesterday, “Buy on strength”
First resistance today: 19,825 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance today: 19,843 (options based)
If Nifty trades for 15 mins above 19,843, look to buy
First support after gap up: 19,778 (yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 19,716 (yesterday’s low)
Stop loss for intra-day longs: 19,778
Stop loss for yesterday’s swing longs: 19,716
Stop loss for positional longs: 19,610 (recent low)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 46,200 (options based)
Bigger resistance: 46,369 (previous high)
Need to see how market reacts to Axis Bank nos
If Axis starts to trade in green, will be signal to buy Bank Nifty
Buy if Bank Nifty trades for 15 mins above 46,200
First support: 46,062 (yesterday’s close)
Biggest support: 45,800 (Options based and yesterday’s low)
Stop loss for intra-day longs: 46,062
Stop loss for swing longs: 45,800
Stop loss for positional longs: 45,200
Positional long view for target of 48,000 is intact