GM

FED PLUS EXPIRY, TREND STRONG
Date Nifty Lows Nifty close
20-Jul-23 19,758 19,779
21-Jul-23 19,700 19,745
24-Jul-23 19,658 19,672
25-Jul-23 19,616 19,680
26-Jul-23 19,716 19,778

MARKET CUES TODAY
Fed hikes and stays hawkish but global markets strong
Axis Bank nos good but not as good as ICICI Bank
Dr Reddy’s posts good nos after Cipla’s beat
Bajaj Finance sees upgrades after Q1 nos
Tech Mahindra posts disappointing results, tech in focus

MARKET: WHAT TO EXPECT?
All large Banks nos are out now except SBI
Bank Nifty has shown strength and resilience
Most IT nos extremely weak, visibility poor
2 sectors that can do well today: Metals and Pharma
Metals in focus on China stimulus
Pharma in focus on low chemical prices, US pricing recovery
Reliance or HDFC Bank need to fire to take Nifty to 20,000

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Same strategy as yesterday, “Buy on strength”
First resistance today: 19,825 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance today: 19,843 (options based)
If Nifty trades for 15 mins above 19,843, look to buy
First support after gap up: 19,778 (yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 19,716 (yesterday’s low)
Stop loss for intra-day longs: 19,778
Stop loss for yesterday’s swing longs: 19,716
Stop loss for positional longs: 19,610 (recent low)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 46,200 (options based)
Bigger resistance: 46,369 (previous high)
Need to see how market reacts to Axis Bank nos
If Axis starts to trade in green, will be signal to buy Bank Nifty
Buy if Bank Nifty trades for 15 mins above 46,200
First support: 46,062 (yesterday’s close)
Biggest support: 45,800 (Options based and yesterday’s low)
Stop loss for intra-day longs: 46,062
Stop loss for swing longs: 45,800
Stop loss for positional longs: 45,200
Positional long view for target of 48,000 is intact

Market strategy didn’t work today. It happens.

GM

MARKET: HEALTH CHECK
Yesterday’s price action was very disappointing.
Benefit of doubt can be given due to expiry.
Nifty made a fresh swing low for the week
Nifty’s moving averages have now moved up
Nifty’s 20 DMA at 19,555, and 20 DEMA at 19,513
Market lacking leadership at Index level
HDFC Bank, Reliance, Infy, ICICI Bank all looking tired
Big question: Can one of the big 4 take Nifty back to highs?
HDFC Bank looks most likely contender of leadership

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Market has shown signs of testing 20 DMA
Need to see if Nifty is holding 20 DMA or not
First test of 20 DMA is normally defended
Buy zone for today: 19,575-19,625, stop: 19,513
Stop loss on closing basis remains 19,600
No thoughts of shorting till 20 DMA is holding

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty action yesterday very disappointing
Bank Nifty had a false breakout above 46,200
20 DMA and 20 DEMA placed at around 45,325
Buy zone: 45,400-45,600, stop loss: 45,300
Stop loss on closing basis remains 45,100
HDFC Bank needs to be watched this series
FTSE related inflows will happen in Mid-August

An important reel on where to put stop loss.

What next for hotel stocks?

Good morning. I am on scheduled leave today.

GM

MARKET: PERFECT SETUP
Date Nifty low Nifty close
July 28 19563 19646
July 31 19597 19753

MARKET: PERFECT SETUP
Market respected the low of first day of series
Traders need to stay long with 19,563 as stop now
Midcap Index hit fresh all time high yesterday
As long as broader market is fine, market is good
Nifty needs couple of big stocks to fire
One stat to watch out: FII longs down suddenly to 51%
FIIs have also started to sell in cash market

MARKET: CUES TO TRACK
Weekly options expiry on Fin Nifty today
Last few Tuesdays have been very volatile
Brent crude above $85, windfall tax and export duty raised
Maruti: To react to nos and news on Suzuki plant
DLF: Promoter to sell stake in big block deal
Big midcap nos: PVR, Chola, Escorts

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s setup is clear: Buy with Friday low as stop
Stop loss for all long positions now: 19,563
Nifty’s Friday low is also the current 20 DEMA
Market has defended its 20 DEMA on first test
Buy at open, add zone for today: 19,650-19,750
Stop loss: 19,563
No shorting till Nifty starts to break 19,563
If 19,563 breaks, trend will change to “Sell on rally”

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has successfully defended 45,100-45,200 zone
Stop loss for all positional longs: 45,100
Bank Nifty’s low yesterday 45,359 also the 20 DEMA
Fin Nifty expiry today, need to see how it impacts
Buy zone: 45,550-45,650, add zone: 45,450-45,550
For day traders, stop loss for Bank Nifty: 45,359
Shorting opens only on close below 45,100

GM

NIFTY’S LEADERSHIP CRISIS
Stock Off highs
HUL 8%
ITC 7%
HDFC Bank 5.5%
TCS 3.5%
SBI 3%
ICICI Bank 1.5%
Reliance 5%*
*Adjusted for JFS

MARKET: IN FINE SHAPE
Midcap and Small Cap indices hit record highs yesterday
Advance/decline has been consistently very strong

MARKET: CUES FOR TODAY
Very strong sales data by Ashok Leyland
Ashok Ley’s nos prove the strength in CV cycle
CV cycle is strong means economy is strong
Dollar Index above 102, Brent crude almost $86
Only risk for Indian market is resurgence of commodity prices
If commodity surge continues, inflation might make a comeback
Market’s base case was rates have peaked and may come down

TRADE SETUP
NIFTY High Low
July 27 19867 19603
July 28 19696 19563
July 31 19772 19597
Aug 1 19795 19704

FII – DII nos

FII Cash Market Selling
Jul 27 -3979 Cr
Jul 28 -1024 Cr
Jul 31 -701 Cr
Aug 1 -93 Cr

FIIs sell 44 Cr in Index Futures

Nifty Futures Premium
Jul 27 151 Pts
Jul 28 105 Pts
Jul 31 90 Pts
Aug 1 79 Pts

FII Net Sell 44.95 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 858.26 Cr in Stock Futures

OPTION CUES
Nifty PCR at 0.92 VS 1.00

F&O BAN
STILL IN BAN: IBULHSGFIN, PEL
NEW IN BAN: HINDCOPPER

NIFTY OUTLOOK
One number to remember: 19,563
Long above 19,563, short below 19,563
First support: 19,704 (yesterday’s low)
Big support: 19,650 (options based)
Buy zone: 19,650-19,704, stop: 19,563
Stop loss for all positional longs also at 19,563
Will think about shorting only below 19,563

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 45,471 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 45,362 (20 DEMA)
Stop loss for all day trades and swing traders: 45,362
Stop loss for all positional longs: 45,100
Buy zone: 45,400-45,500, stop: 45,362

Very bad price action