GM

NIFTY’S LEADERSHIP CRISIS
Stock Off highs
HUL 8%
ITC 7%
HDFC Bank 5.5%
TCS 3.5%
SBI 3%
ICICI Bank 1.5%
Reliance 5%*
*Adjusted for JFS

MARKET: IN FINE SHAPE
Midcap and Small Cap indices hit record highs yesterday
Advance/decline has been consistently very strong

MARKET: CUES FOR TODAY
Very strong sales data by Ashok Leyland
Ashok Ley’s nos prove the strength in CV cycle
CV cycle is strong means economy is strong
Dollar Index above 102, Brent crude almost $86
Only risk for Indian market is resurgence of commodity prices
If commodity surge continues, inflation might make a comeback
Market’s base case was rates have peaked and may come down

TRADE SETUP
NIFTY High Low
July 27 19867 19603
July 28 19696 19563
July 31 19772 19597
Aug 1 19795 19704

FII – DII nos

FII Cash Market Selling
Jul 27 -3979 Cr
Jul 28 -1024 Cr
Jul 31 -701 Cr
Aug 1 -93 Cr

FIIs sell 44 Cr in Index Futures

Nifty Futures Premium
Jul 27 151 Pts
Jul 28 105 Pts
Jul 31 90 Pts
Aug 1 79 Pts

FII Net Sell 44.95 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 858.26 Cr in Stock Futures

OPTION CUES
Nifty PCR at 0.92 VS 1.00

F&O BAN
STILL IN BAN: IBULHSGFIN, PEL
NEW IN BAN: HINDCOPPER

NIFTY OUTLOOK
One number to remember: 19,563
Long above 19,563, short below 19,563
First support: 19,704 (yesterday’s low)
Big support: 19,650 (options based)
Buy zone: 19,650-19,704, stop: 19,563
Stop loss for all positional longs also at 19,563
Will think about shorting only below 19,563

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 45,471 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 45,362 (20 DEMA)
Stop loss for all day trades and swing traders: 45,362
Stop loss for all positional longs: 45,100
Buy zone: 45,400-45,500, stop: 45,362

Very bad price action

Good morning

MARKET: HAS TREND CHANGED?
Nifty broke and closed below 20 DEMA yesterday
Market needed an excuse to fall, Fitch provided that
Possible to now test the 50 DEMA around 19,100
Yesterday’s fall was first bad day for broad market in this run
Market has given a warning to exit poor quality stocks

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,423 (yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 19,385 (Options based)
First resistance: 19,550 (20 DEMA)
Bigger resistance: 19,600 (options based)
No trade on Nifty today till stability

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Show Calls: 45000, 45100 and 45200
Show 45000 Call separately
Previous support of 45,100-45,200 now big resistance
First support: 44,720 (yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 44,550 (50 DEMA)

GM

TRADING VS INVESTMENT
Market’s near-term texture is “Sell on rally”
Market’s bigger texture is “Buy on dips”
Those who can’t do both should focus on one thing
Good trading makes profit, good investment makes wealth
Trading strategy: Sell every rally till 19,550 is back
Investment Strategy: Invest additional 10% on every 200 point fall

MARKET: TEXTURE POOR NOW
Nifty Open Low Close
Aug 1 19784 19704 19733
Aug 2 19655 19423 19526
Aug 3 19463 19286 19381

MARKET: TEXTURE POOR NOW
Bank Nifty Open Low Close
Aug 1 45740 45471 45592
Aug 2 45234 44720 44995
Aug 3 44862 44279 44513

MARKET: TEXTURE POOR NOW
Trend: Intra-day collapse and last hour recovery
Last hour recovery is purely due to intra-day covering
Shorts still don’t have confidence to carry due to larger trend
Shorts very confident about intra-day moves
Trend will change if Nifty starts to close above 19,550
Global driven corrections are sharp but buying opportunities

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Need to see if Nifty makes higher low/high
If Nifty makes higher low/high, uptrend can resume
Market has shorts now, short covering can be big
First resistance: 19,538 (yesterday’s high and 20 DEMA)
Second resistance: 19,617 (options based and 20 DMA)
If Nifty sustains above 19,538 then only go long
First hour low will be the stop loss for long trades
If Nifty rejects 19,538, then go short
Stop loss for all short trades: 19,538

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty very weak, no leadership from big stocks
HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI all at make or break levels
Avoid any long trading in Bank Nifty till clarity emerges
Long trade on Bank Nifty only on strength above 45,100
Stop loss for long trades: First hour low
Short trade opens if Bank Nifty makes lower high
Stop loss for all short trades: 45,100

Green on green always works

Nifty's high 19,538 and Bank Nifty's high 45,118

Bigger rally only above these levels.

SBI spoiled mood today.

Lets see what mgmt says