GM

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,296-19,318 (Yesterday low and 50 DMA)
Bigger support: 19,253 (Series low)
First resistance: 19,458 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 19,554 (20 DMA)
Traders need to play the range of 19,250-19,550 smartly
Sell zone: 19,400-19,450
Add sell positions: 19,450-19,500
Stop loss for all short positions: 19,558
Buy zone: 19,350-19,400
Add buy positions: 19,300-19,350
Stop loss for all longs: 19,250

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Fin Nifty expiry today, last 3 expiries have been weak
Long above 44,205, “Sell on rally” below this level
First resistance: 44,113 (Yesterday’s high)
Big resistance: 44,205 (Options based)
First support: 43,862 (yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 43,740 (100 DMA)
Sell zone: 43,950-44,150, stop loss: 44,205
If 44,205 sustains, can chase longs via Calls
Other option for longs is to wait for dip till 43,740
Buy on stability at 43,740, stop: 43,600

Jii exit impact on Nifty.

Level based trading vs breakout trading.

Good morning

NIFTY VS MIDCAPS
Index This month This year
Nifty -1.8% +7%
Midcap +2.2% +22%
Small Cap +1.3% +22%
Nifty Bank -3.6% +2%
HDFC Bank -4% -3%
IDFC First +5.5% +56%

LEVEL BASED MARKET VS TRENDING MKT
Last month was trending market
In trending market, you should stay with the trend
In uptrending market, you can buy on dip or rally
In downtrending market, you can sell on dip or rally
This month’s market is contracting and level based
In level based market, you need to trade the boundaries
In current market, you need to sell the rallies and buy the dips
Current range for Nifty is 19,250-19,550
Selling near 19,550 and buying near 19,250 is working
In trending market, stay with trend and make big profit
In contracting market, take small profits daily

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Trade only if you can take both sides
Keep taking 40-50 point profit in both directions
First support level: 19,334 (50 DMA)
Bigger support level: 19,253 (series low)
First resistance level: 19,443 (yesterday high)
Bigger resistance level: 19,550 (20 DMA)
Buy zone: 19,300-19,350, stop loss: 19,250
Sell zone: 19,400-19,450, stop loss: 19,550

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Texture is “Sell on rally” till 44,205 is crossed decisively
First resistance: 44,151 (yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 44,205 (20 DMA)
First support: 43,860 (Options based)
Bigger support: 43,750 (100 DMA)
Sell on failure of any rally, stop loss: 44,205
Buy on stability above 43,750, stop: 43,700

44205 importance became clear today on Bank Nifty

Strategy now on Bank Nifty: 44,205 now your stop for longs and possible to see 20 DMA of 44,800.

Nifty still an avoid for now.

GM

BANK NIFTY: BREAKOUT!
Massive rally in Bank Nifty above 44,205
Strategy in Closing was to carry long positions
Need to adjust stop loss after gap up in morning
Bank Nifty stop was 44,205, now would be first hour low
Bank Nifty set to cross 20 and 50 DMA in gap up (44,725)
Nifty set to test 20 DMA of 19,529 after gap up
If gap up sustains, short covering can be huge on Nifty

MARKET: WHERE ARE THE SHORTS?
Index/Stock Off highs
Bank Nifty -4%
Nifty 50 -2.7%
Kotak Bank -14%
Bajaj Finance -11%
HDFC Bank -10%
SBI -8%
Tata Motors -8%

If Nifty sustains above 20 DMA, expect short covering
Weekly expiry today, yesterday was first day of move
A fresh move normally lasts for at least 3 days
Only risk if if yesterday’s move turns out as fake breakout
Yesterday’s low should be the stop loss now for all longs

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,528 (20 DMA)
Biggest resistance: 19,645 (last swing high)
First support: 19,444 (Yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 19,366 (yesterday’s low)
If buying in gap up, need to keep strict SL of 19,444
If Nifty sustains above 19,528, chase via Calls
No short trade now unless market confirms breakout was fake

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
44500 Call
First resistance: 44,604
Bigger resistance: 44,725 (20 and 50 DMA)
If 44,725 sustains, can see bigger short covering
Need to keep an eye on ICICI Bk, Kotak and HDFC Bank
If HDFC Bank starts to fire, Bank Nifty can see big rally
First support: 44,479 (Yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 44,205 (Breakout zone)
Stop loss for all longs now at 44,205
No short trade unless breakout fails

We will start close to 44800

All targets exceeded

Enjoy