GM

BANK NIFTY: BREAKOUT!
Massive rally in Bank Nifty above 44,205
Strategy in Closing was to carry long positions
Need to adjust stop loss after gap up in morning
Bank Nifty stop was 44,205, now would be first hour low
Bank Nifty set to cross 20 and 50 DMA in gap up (44,725)
Nifty set to test 20 DMA of 19,529 after gap up
If gap up sustains, short covering can be huge on Nifty

MARKET: WHERE ARE THE SHORTS?
Index/Stock Off highs
Bank Nifty -4%
Nifty 50 -2.7%
Kotak Bank -14%
Bajaj Finance -11%
HDFC Bank -10%
SBI -8%
Tata Motors -8%

If Nifty sustains above 20 DMA, expect short covering
Weekly expiry today, yesterday was first day of move
A fresh move normally lasts for at least 3 days
Only risk if if yesterday’s move turns out as fake breakout
Yesterday’s low should be the stop loss now for all longs

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,528 (20 DMA)
Biggest resistance: 19,645 (last swing high)
First support: 19,444 (Yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 19,366 (yesterday’s low)
If buying in gap up, need to keep strict SL of 19,444
If Nifty sustains above 19,528, chase via Calls
No short trade now unless market confirms breakout was fake

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
44500 Call
First resistance: 44,604
Bigger resistance: 44,725 (20 and 50 DMA)
If 44,725 sustains, can see bigger short covering
Need to keep an eye on ICICI Bk, Kotak and HDFC Bank
If HDFC Bank starts to fire, Bank Nifty can see big rally
First support: 44,479 (Yesterday’s close)
Bigger support: 44,205 (Breakout zone)
Stop loss for all longs now at 44,205
No short trade unless breakout fails

We will start close to 44800

All targets exceeded

Enjoy

Vey bad follow through after hitting targets.

Good morning

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 19,340 (Friday high)
Bigger resistance: 19,432 (Options based)
Sell zone: 19,325-19,375, stop loss: 19,432
First support: 19,229 (Friday low)
Bigger support: 19,187 (Options based)
Buy only on stability above 19,200, stop: 19,150

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty managed to protect 44,200 on close
First support: 44,200 (Breakout zone)
Bigger support: 43,925 (100 DMA)
First resistance: 44,359 (Friday high)
Bigger resistance: 44,575 (Falling 20 DMA)
Sell zone: 44,350-44,450, stop loss: 44,600
Buy zone: 44,000-44,100, stop loss: 43,925

GM

MARKET: GETTING OVERHEATED
Clear signs of FOMO and euphoria in midcaps
Promoter and insider selling picking up daily
Biggest of blocks are getting done in block deal window
Stocks are rallying 10% after promoter sells
Easy to make big mistakes in such market

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 19,367-19,382 (yesterday’s high and 50 DMA)
Bigger resistance zone: 19,440-19,472 (Option zone and 20 DMA)
Sell zone: 19,350-19,400, stop loss: 19,472
First support zone: 19,240-19,250 (Recent lows)
Bigger support zone: 19,185-19,210 (Options zone)
Buy only if Nifty is stable above 19,250, stop: 19,210

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty Bank
Close: 44495
20 DMA 44526
50 DMA 44746

First resistance zone: 44,526-44,610 (20 DMA and yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance zone: 44,700-44,746 (Options zone and 50 DMA)
Sell zone: 44,550-44,650, stop loss: 44,750
First support zone: 44,300-44,350 (Options based)
Biggest support zone: 44,200 (Yesterday low and breakout level)
Buy zone: 44,300-44,350, stop loss: 44,190

10 lessons from Warren Buffet. You will like this.

Happy 93rd birthday.

CUES FOR TODAY
Dollar and Bond yields in US tumble after consumer sentiment data
US economy cooling, which means Fed will pause in September
IT stocks likely to have a field day today
Dollar Index cools to 103.5, positive for emerging markets
Expiry minus 1 day today, normally it’s a trend day for markets
Maximum Open Interest at 19,400 and 19,500 Calls
Need to see if Call writers will panic today or hold

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Today’s trade is about the gap up and sustainability
No trade in Nifty after a big gap up
First resistance for Nifty: 19,430 (Options based)
Bigger resistance for Nifty: 19,452 (20 DMA)
If Nifty sustains above 19,452, then only short covering will pick up
If Nifty rejects 19,452, sell with a stop loss of 19,475
If Nifty manages to sustain 19,452, Buy call options
Stop loss for all intra-day long positions: First hour low
Nifty likely to outperform Bank Nifty today due to IT

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 44,757 (50 DMA)
Bigger resistance: 44,950 (Last Thursday’s reversal point)
HDFC Bank has shown fresh signs of bottoming out
Need to see if Axis and ICICI Bank have bottomed out as well
No premeditated trade in Bank Nifty today
Will take a call On Bank Nifty after first hour of trade
44,757-44,950 is not the zone to buy, risk of being stuck