Good morning.

ALL EYES ON RBI
Market sensing RBI’s positive decision on incremental CRR
For 2 days, HDFC Bank has led the rally in Nifty
If RBI decision is positive, Bank Nifty can rally 2000 points
HDFC Bank alone can rally around Rs 100
Bank Nifty is 1500 points away from all-time high
Nifty is set to hit new all-time high in this series
Nifty is on course to hit 20,000-20,500 this series
Don’t be in a hurry to book profit, trail stop loss daily
How to trail stop loss: Book your profit the day market closes near lows

KHELO INDIA, KHELO
Nifty Calls yesterday
Strike low High
19650 Call 2.55 120.3
19700 Call 0.75 75.3
19750 Call 0.05 36.4

KHELO INDIA, KHELO
Strike Notional Turnover (Rs cr)
19650 Call 38.3 lakh cr
19700 Call 33.4 lakh cr
19600 Put 32.4 lakh cr

KHELO INDIA, KHELO
At one point, 19600 Put had 5 cr shares Open Interest
Earlier, traders were dividing trades between Nifty and Bank Nifty
Now, traders will focus entirely on Nifty or Bank Nifty
Market is likely to go through big volatility daily for some time

NIFTY OUTLOOK
In 5 days, Nifty has reclaimed 21 days of losses
Nifty now needs to reclaim 8 more days of losses
At current rate, Nifty can hit new high next week
Approach is simple, stay long and trail stop loss
Trust the texture and buy each and every dip
One day, dip buying will fail but that’s OK
For day traders, best buy zone: 19,600-19,700
Trailing stop loss now for all longs: 19,550

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty’s move is dependent on RBI decision
Bank Nifty now above all major moving averages
Fresh buy zone: 44,500-44,700, stop loss: 44,200
No short trades till Bank Nifty is above 44,200
Will revisit Bank Nifty during the day

What a run on Nifty. Thats why I kept saying to not be in a hurry to book.

Good morning

20,000 PAAR, AB 21,000
Nifty took 8 days to reclaim 29 days of fall
A very fast move to 20,500-21,000 has begun
Next round of move can belong to large caps
Take some money from Small caps and put in large caps
No valuation comfort now in Small Caps
Risk-reward is still in favour for large cap Stocks
Fin Nifty expiry today, need to see Bank Nifty’s move
Bank Nifty exactly 800 points away from all-time high
If retail inflation comes below 7%, Bank Nifty can hit high tomorrow

NIFTY: STILL NOT OVERVALUED
Index Current PE 10-yr average
Nifty 20.3x 18x
Midcap 25.2x 20.1x
Small Cap 20x 16.6x
Nifty Bank 14.2x 16x

LARGE CAPS: STOCKS BELOW AVG VALUATIONS
HDFC Bank
TCS
Infosys
ITC
SBI

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Stay long and keep trailing stop loss
New stop loss now: 19,850
Fresh buying zone: 19,900-20,000
Stop loss for fresh positions: 19,850
ABSOLUTELY no thoughts of shorting this market
Approach the market from month end options
Can book profit in 19,700 and 19,800 Calls
Shift your positions to 20,200 and 20,300 Calls on dips

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Now need to go all out on Bank Nifty
PSU Bank Nifty gave a massive breakout
SBI and HDFC Bank now leaders of Bank Nifty
If retail inflation is benign, new high likely
Risk-reward is in favour now for Bank Nifty trades
Trailing stop for Bank Nifty longs now: 45,200
Target for current swing: 46,500-46,800

Good morning.

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GM