I have got a lot of requests to keep this channel going and not close it. Your wish is my command. This channel will stay.

GM

MARKET: SIGNS OF RESILIENCE
Yesterday’s second half extremely positive
Nifty defended all-important support of 19,545 by 9 points
Normally, the most important support is defended on first attack
Second attack on the big support is always more crucial
If Nifty breaks 19,545, a big short trade will open
As long as Nifty is holding 19,545, longs can be tried
Big rally yesterday in midcaps, Adv/dec stable

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,650 (Options based)
Bigger support: 19,545 (All-important level)
First resistance: 19,750 (Falling 20 DEMA)
Bigger resistance: 19,814 (Highest Call writing zone)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
No trade till HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank show stability
First support: 44,260 (Options based)
Bigger support: 44,182 (Yesterday’s low)
First resistance: 44,809 (50 DEMA)
Bigger resistance: 44,958 (20 DEMA)

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Thank you. This has a very important message for everyone.

Love your family and invest with discipline.

GM

NEW SERIES, NEW HOPE
Last series started on a bang, ended on a whimper
Market struggling with lack of triggers in large caps
Yesterday, even midcaps collapsed in late trade
Nifty managed to close near the 19,545 level
Its still not a breakdown, today’s price action crucial
If Nifty closes below 19,545 today also, then its bearish
Next level to watch on Nifty would be 19,300
Global screen much better today
Bond yields, Brent and Dollar Index all cool off
If today’s rally fails, then its going to be very bearish

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 19,492
Big support: 19,410 (Put option base)
First resistance: 19,620 (Breakdown point)
Bigger resistance: 19,729 (Falling 20 DEMA)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 44,182 (Wednesday low)
Bigger support: 43,830 (September low)
Below 43,830, a test of 200 DMA of 43,100 is possible
First resistance: 44,500 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 44,756 (Yesterday’s high)

Never fails.

Green on green.

GM

WEEKLY EXPIRY: HOPE OF RECOVERY
Big decline in crude can present a short covering opportunity
Market has been resilient and not closing at lows
Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have defended breakdown points
Breakdown point: 19255 on Nifty and 43,830 on Bank Nifty
Global corrections are always the best opportunities to buy

MARKET: BIG CUES LINED UP
Weekly expiry today, RBI policy tomorrow
Banks and NBFCs under pressure ahead of policy
Tough for RBI to moderate stance in current scenario
RBI’s hands tied because of crude, US Fed’s stance
Next week will see start of earnings season
HDFC Bank’s quarterly update wasn’t too bad
HDFC Bank ended at day’s high yesterday
If HDFC Bank bottoms out, Nifty will also bottom out

TRADE SETUP
DII Net Buy 1,769.49 Cr in Cash (10,050.08 - 8,280.59 Cr)
FII Net Sell 4,424.02 Cr in Cash (9,848.55 -14,272.57 Cr)

FII Net Sell 560 Cr in Index Futures
FII Net Sell 7,185 Cr in Stock Futures

Change in OI
Nifty OI +3.3%,
Nifty Bank OI +29.8%

FII in FNO on Index Futures
Change in OI Positioning
Longs +7.7k 25%
Shorts +14 k 75%

FII Net Short Position – Can give bars please
27-09-2023 -20848
28-09-2023 -57279
29-09-2023 -65305
03-10-2023 -85893
04-10-2023 -92228

Nifty PCR at 0.96 vs 0.91

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NIFTY OUTLOOK
For those who carried longs, keep trailing stop loss
First support: 19,333 (Yesterday’s low)
All important support: 19,255 (Last series low)
First resistance: 19,522 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 19,641 (10 DEMA)
Today’s big trade is to play for short covering
Buy with a stop loss of 19,333
If today also market collapses, trend will be very negative

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First sign of stability in HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank very close to 200 DMA
Axis fell yesterday due to fund raising rumours
Bank Nifty refused to break 43,830 support
First support today: 43,857 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 43,739 (Options based)
Buy zone: 43,857-44,000, stop loss: 43,739
If today Bank Nifty rally fails, will be big negative