GM

MARKET: BIG CUES IN NEXT 2 DAYS
Next 2 days is all about macro and economic cues
India and US inflation data today
Inflation data has surprised on the downside in recent months

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 21,167 (Weekly options based)
Next big resistance: 21,500 (Monthly option based)
First support: 20,923 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 20,850 (Recent low)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has more catch up to play
First support: 47,186 (Yesterday;s low)
Bigger support: 46,800 (Options based)

GM

MARKET: TIME CORRECTION
As expected, market gets positive surprise from inflation
In uptrend, markets keep getting positive triggers
Added trigger for India: Crude prices decline once again
Nifty’s 5 and 10 DEMA beginning to move up
Nifty’s 5 DEMA at 20,870 and 10 DEMA at 20,676
2-3 more days of consolidation will be healthy
Trend is up as long as Nifty is closing above 20,850
Today’s policy likely to mark a shift to dovish stance from Fed
Market is already pricing in rate cuts from May of 2024

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty made an outside bar yesterday
Yesterday’s low and high outside of previous day
First support zone: 20,840-20,860 (Recent low)
Bigger support: 20,750-20,780 (Options zone)
First resistance: 21,038 (Yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 21,150 (Options zone)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
First support: 47,004 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 46,800 (Options based)
First resistance: 47,230 (Yesterday’s high)
Bigger resistance: 47,500 (Options based)

GM

SANTA POWELL DELIVERS CHRISTMAS GOODIES
US Fed hints at 3 rate cuts in 2024, markets rejoice
US 10-year bond yield collapses to 4%
Fed says 75 bps, market factors in 1.5% rate cuts in 2024
Powell: Fed doesn’t need recession to cut rates
Powell: Rate cuts will be the topic of discussion going forward
Big rally across risk assets, especially equities
Crude also rallies but still at comfortable levels

MARKET: WHAT NOW?
Banks are likely to lead the rally if FIIs join in
IT will rally big on short covering
Massive shorts were added in IT yesterday after CPI data
Market will now price in a very dovish RBI as well
Year-end rally, pre-budget rally and pre-election rally likely

TRADE SETUP
FIIs in Index Futures
Longs -9662
Shorts +1871

FIIs in Stock futures
Longs -21172
Shorts +14105

GM

MARKETS: AT CRUCIAL LEVELS
Both Nifty and Bank Nifty closed at most important support
Nifty defended 21,500 and Bank Nifty 20 DEMA on close
Market’s intra-day texture so far has been “Sell on rally”
Today’s rally will provide perfect test for the markets
If Nifty crosses yesterday’s high, trend will resume upwards
If today’s rally is sold into, market will become slightly weak

MARKET: BASIC CUES FOR TODAY
Big rally in US markets, led by Nasdaq
Nasdaq managed to reclaim 10 and 20 DEMA
Expect Nifty IT to rally 400-600 points today
Nifty IT might reclaim 10 and 20 DEMA today as well

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance: 21,670 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 21,764 (Yesterday’s high)
First support: 21,492 (Yesterday’s low)
Bigger support: 21,413 (Options based)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty added lot of short positions yesterday
Need to see how Fin Nifty’s expiry impacts Index
Too big a range for Bank Nifty to give exact levels
Need to see first hour high and low today

GM

MARKET : CAUTION SIGNS
Market has given enough warning signs
Bank Nifty has closed below 20 DEMA decisively
Nifty is repeatedly testing 21,500
Many mid and small caps are in total exuberance
12 stocks in F&O ban, there is no fear left in market
Whenever there is no fear, there is room to make mistake

MARKET: SOME IMPORATANT INTERNALS
466 stocks at new high, only 9 stocks at new low
Ratio of 52-w high to 52-w low at 52:1
Normally, market sees big correction at such ratios
Market yesterday confirmed texture of “Sell on rally”

NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty’s texture is now sell on rally
Nifty’s texture will change only on close above 21,764
First support: 21,492-21,517 (Last 2 days low)
Bigger support: 21,350 (20 DEMA)
First resistance: 21,650-21,700 (Options zone)
Bigger resistance: 21,764-21,834 (All time high zone)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty has now opened downside till 46,450 (50 DEMA)
Bank Nifty needs to close above 47,450 (20 DEMA) to negate bearishness
No Put writing on Bank Nifty till 47,000
Only hope today is short covering

Good morning

MARKET: IT ALL THE WAY TODAY
Both Infosys and TCS pleasantly surprise street
Nifty IT should now be 25% of one’s portfolio
Both TCS and Infosys have made strong bottom
Infosys and TCS nos show that FY25 could be very strong
Today will be a field day for all IT stocks
Nifty IT should soon hit 52-week high
Reliance has joined the party, led the bulls for 2 days
The only missing piece in the puzzle is Bank Nifty

INFOSYS AND TCS: WHAT NEXT?
Both cos beat the topline in seasonally weak quarter
TCS outperformed on margins
Infosys upped lower end of guidance
Attrition has cooled off for both cos, positive for margins
Deal wins remains impressive for both cos
Brokerages expect 12-13% EPS CAGR over next 3 years
If valuations inch up a bit more, both stocks can outperform

TCS: Top takeaways
Rev and margins beat est, stable performance despite weak seasonality of furloughs
CC Rev growth of 1% QOQ vs est of flat
Margins expand for the 2nd consecitve qtr
EBIT % up 70 bps to 25%

Infosys: Top takeaways
Qtr impacted by seasonality and macro but not as bad as feared
CC Rev growth declines 1% vs est of 1.5-2% decline
Deal wins $3.2b vs $7.7b QOO, but largely inline with $3.8bn average for past four quarters.
FY24 Rev guidance narrowed to 1.5-2% vs 1 – 2.5%
FY24 margin guidance maintained at 20-22%
Attrition at 12.9%, down 170bps QoQ

NIFTY OUTLOOK
First resistance zone: 21,700-21,750
Bigger resistance zone: 21,750-21,850
First support zone: 21,550-21,600
All important support zone: 21,450-21,550
Keep stop loss of 21,500 on close for positional longs
Intra-day traders should buy the dips and sell the rallies
Buy zone: 21,600-21,650, stop loss: 21,575
Sell zone: 21,700-21,750, stop loss: 21,764
Chota profit lene ki aadat daalen

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Bank Nifty facing cluster of resistance at 5 and 10 DEMA
5 DEMA at 47,506 and 10 DEMA at 47,655
Bank Nifty protecting falling 20 DEMA of 47,405
Big rally will happen only if Index sustains above 47,655
Sell on rejection of 47,655, stop loss: 47,750
Buy above 47,655, stop loss: day’s low

GM

MARKET: CUES FROM HERE
US 10-year yield back down to 3.95%
Next big cue for market is HDFC Bank nos
HDFC Bank nos tomorrow, Fin nifty expiry tomorrow
HDFC Bank’s quarterly update wasn’t too bad
HDFC Bank has corrected after big rally of December
Reliance, HUL nos on Friday

NIFTY IT: SET FOR MORE GAINS
Wipro ADR up 17%, IT set for more gains today
Nifty IT hit 52-w high but life high still 10% away
Nifty set to test 22,000 today

TRADE SETUP
Nifty PCR at 1.43 vs 1.14

F&O BAN: 15 stocks now in ban period

NIFTY OUTLOOK
22,000 is not the right level to make fresh entry
Big resistance: 22,040-22,100
First support: 21,700-21,800 (Options zone)
Big support: 21,500-21,600 (Recent lows)

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK
Very important week for Bank Nifty’s trend
Bank Nifty managed to reclaim 20 and 10 DEMA
First resistance: 47,800-48,000 (Options based)
Bigger resistance: 48,400-48,600 (Previous tops)

GM