Every single pick I've made in the last two weeks has been MLB.

19 picks. 19 MLB. -0.83 units over that stretch — essentially flat, but worth understanding in context.

Mid-summer is when I go deepest into baseball. The schedule is dense, line movement is predictable, and the sample builds fast. Full concentration on one sport means sharper tracking, not scattered attention across a slate.

The YTD number still sits at +29.92 units on 146 picks, a 20.49% yield. That cushion exists because baseball has been the engine all year.

A two-week dip in a 162-game sport is noise. The work is in reading it correctly — not panicking, not overreacting, just logging it honestly and moving forward.

The full public stats are there if you want to check the longer arc. 📊

Closed: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 in New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies → Won (+1.05u)

The room (34 votes):
• New York Mets: 21%
• Philadelphia Phillies: 41%
• Over: 35%
• Under: 3%

In the public stats it counts the same, win or loss.

Every pick I've made in the last two weeks has been MLB.

18 picks, all baseball. That's not a rotation — that's a deliberate focus.

The unit return on those 18 picks sits at +0.26 units. Flat, essentially. Not the kind of two-week stretch you frame on the wall.

But context matters. The YTD line across 148 picks is +31.77 units at a 21.47% yield. The longer sample absorbs the quiet stretches.

That's how sustainable betting records actually look — not a straight line up, but a process that holds over volume. The public stats reflect both the good runs and the flat ones. 📊

Baseball is a grind. The edges are smaller, the variance is higher per game, and a two-week window means almost nothing on its own. What matters is whether the approach holds across 3,108 resolved picks — and that number is there for anyone to check.

Flat weeks are part of this. I track them publicly for exactly that reason.

⚾️ Baltimore Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 Runs in Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels

📝 Pick preview: Ryan Johnson is arguably the most vulnerable pitcher taking the mound on today's entire slate. Across his appearances, he has allowed a terrifying 12.83 ERA and a massive 2.33 WHIP. Analytically, his -1.0% K-BB rate indicates he is actually walking more batters than he strikes out, which is an absolute death sentence at the Major League level. The Orioles boast an elite, power-heavy offense that feasts on right-handed pitching lacking both velocity and command. With free passes routinely loading the bases, Baltimore's sluggers will clear this team total with ease before the Angels' shaky bullpen even takes over.

💶 Stake 1

Closed: Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs in Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds → Lost (-1u)

The room (35 votes):
• Milwaukee Brewers: 66%
• Cincinnati Reds: 17%
• Over: 14%
• Under: 3%

In the public stats it counts the same, win or loss.

⚾️ Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 in Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

📝 Pick preview: This is the most lopsided pitching matchup on the entire 2026 slate. The Phillies hand the ball to Cy Young frontrunner Zack Wheeler, who commands a 2.11 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a massive arsenal that completely suppresses barrel rates. The Mets' pitching infrastructure has collapsed entirely; with Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, and Griffin Canning all suffering severe injuries, New York is forced to rely on organizational depth pieces like Zach Thornton (8.31 ERA) or David Peterson (6.09 ERA). The Phillies' offense is clicking on all cylinders, boasting elite SLG and OBP metrics from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Against a devastated Mets pitching staff, Philadelphia should score early and often, covering the run line with ease behind Wheeler's sheer dominance.

💶 Stake 1

Yesterday's spotlight

⚾️ MLB — Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (1u) ❌

The read: A heavily lopsided pitching matchup favoring Cy Young frontrunner Zack Wheeler against a devastated Mets rotation, expecting the Phillies' high-powered offense to pull away early.

The result: Philadelphia won the game 2-1 but failed to cover the run line. While Wheeler delivered an absolute gem, the offense didn't break the game open as projected against New York's depth pieces.

⚾️ MLB — Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (1u) ✅

The read: Jacob Misiorowski has been pitching on another level, profiling perfectly against a high-strikeout Cubs lineup. The secondary edge relied on Colin Rea's low-velocity profile getting heavily pressured by a high-scoring Brewers offense.

The result: Milwaukee's bats generated consistent pressure to secure a 6-2 victory, clearing the run line while Misiorowski backing it up with 8 strikeouts over 6 dominant innings.