🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why do central banks care more about long-term inflation expectations than the current inflation print?
Why do central banks care more about long-term inflation expectations than the current inflation print?
Anonymous Quiz
29%
Expectations shape wages and pricing — but only the current print drives policy decisions
35%
Expectations shape wages and pricing — though expectations don’t influence actual future inflation
27%
Expectations shape wages and pricing — de-anchoring makes inflation self-reinforcing
10%
Expectations shape wages and pricing — but expectations always match the current print
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Gold 4H Chart Update:
I am still long, promising start to today's session. Stops are below prior lows, and I'm looking for a break back above $4100.
I am modestly bullish, but skeptical about a potential rise in inflation due to the sharp rise in oil price.
That said, several economic metrics have been a bit soft - including the latest Non-Farm Payroll.
This makes me hesitant to think the fed will raise rates aggressively, but instead may opt for a 1 and done approach.
Of course, I could certainly be wrong and my risk is managed in the event that I am.
Let's see!
- Nick
I am still long, promising start to today's session. Stops are below prior lows, and I'm looking for a break back above $4100.
I am modestly bullish, but skeptical about a potential rise in inflation due to the sharp rise in oil price.
That said, several economic metrics have been a bit soft - including the latest Non-Farm Payroll.
This makes me hesitant to think the fed will raise rates aggressively, but instead may opt for a 1 and done approach.
Of course, I could certainly be wrong and my risk is managed in the event that I am.
Let's see!
- Nick
❤33👍16
EdgeFinder scorecard has a modestly bullish outlook on gold.
Shown:
- Institutions are overall net bullish in the COT data
- Seasonality suggests strength in upcoming weeks
- Trend flip to the upside on the 4H
- PMIs weaker than economic forecasts
- Core CPI & PPI cooler than expected
- NFP weak
EdgeFinder bias: Bullish
Shown:
- Institutions are overall net bullish in the COT data
- Seasonality suggests strength in upcoming weeks
- Trend flip to the upside on the 4H
- PMIs weaker than economic forecasts
- Core CPI & PPI cooler than expected
- NFP weak
EdgeFinder bias: Bullish
❤19
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- Nick
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❤14
OIL Now Plunges as China Backs a New Iran Peace Push
USOIL trades near 88.60, down 4.3% today but still up roughly 7% on the week. Price rallied into the descending trendline off the April high near 92 and was rejected, so that line still holds. Beneath sits the 84 to 86.5 zone, the same 85.65 confluence that capped price on July 17 and has since flipped to support.
Pakistan is pushing to revive US-Iran talks with Chinese backing, per three Reuters sources. Beijing is unhappy that Gulf attacks and Hormuz disruption are hitting its interests. China buys the bulk of Iran's crude, leverage the prior three frameworks lacked.
The physical picture diverges. CENTCOM ran a 13th straight night of strikes, Trump threatened massive retaliation, and the Caspian Pipeline suspended Black Sea loadings, disrupting 80% of Kazakh exports. That is a supply shock outside the Gulf.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USOIL trades near 88.60, down 4.3% today but still up roughly 7% on the week. Price rallied into the descending trendline off the April high near 92 and was rejected, so that line still holds. Beneath sits the 84 to 86.5 zone, the same 85.65 confluence that capped price on July 17 and has since flipped to support.
Pakistan is pushing to revive US-Iran talks with Chinese backing, per three Reuters sources. Beijing is unhappy that Gulf attacks and Hormuz disruption are hitting its interests. China buys the bulk of Iran's crude, leverage the prior three frameworks lacked.
The physical picture diverges. CENTCOM ran a 13th straight night of strikes, Trump threatened massive retaliation, and the Caspian Pipeline suspended Black Sea loadings, disrupting 80% of Kazakh exports. That is a supply shock outside the Gulf.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤13👍2
Gold Now: The Hawkish Case Is Already in the Price
Gold is holding the retest of the descending trendline it broke on July 22. That break resolved the falling wedge upward, and buyers are stepping in at the retest. The yellow MA near 4,500 remains overhead resistance.
Gold turned higher as Brent retreated from above 100, where it settled Thursday for the first time since May. Bullion is down roughly 23% since the war began, pressured throughout by the rate channel.
The bull case is asymmetry. September hike odds sit near 80% and July near a third. Two hikes are largely priced, so it takes something new to reprice hawkish while a dovish surprise is unpriced. Cooler CPI, cooler PPI and a weaker NFP support that. EdgeFinder reads +4.
The caution is that TD calls this bounce short covering rather than new longs, and today's driver is the fourth ceasefire trade of 2026. Hold 4,000 and 4,200 is the level. Lose 3,900 and the break failed.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Gold is holding the retest of the descending trendline it broke on July 22. That break resolved the falling wedge upward, and buyers are stepping in at the retest. The yellow MA near 4,500 remains overhead resistance.
Gold turned higher as Brent retreated from above 100, where it settled Thursday for the first time since May. Bullion is down roughly 23% since the war began, pressured throughout by the rate channel.
The bull case is asymmetry. September hike odds sit near 80% and July near a third. Two hikes are largely priced, so it takes something new to reprice hawkish while a dovish surprise is unpriced. Cooler CPI, cooler PPI and a weaker NFP support that. EdgeFinder reads +4.
The caution is that TD calls this bounce short covering rather than new longs, and today's driver is the fourth ceasefire trade of 2026. Hold 4,000 and 4,200 is the level. Lose 3,900 and the break failed.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤28👍15
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A bear steepener can only occur when the Federal Reserve is actively cutting interest rates.
A bear steepener can only occur when the Federal Reserve is actively cutting interest rates.
Anonymous Quiz
44%
True
56%
False
👍6🙏2❤1
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USOIL Now Rejects 92 and Breaks Its Pivotal Support
USOIL is down 7.9%. Price rejected the descending trendline near 92 last week, exactly as flagged, and is now cracking the 84 to 86.5 confluence, the July 17 flip level. Below sits open air to the 200-day near 74.
The reason for the decline: The US paused strikes for a third day, Iran halted retaliation and is talking to Oman on Hormuz, and the Caspian terminal resumed loadings.
Hormuz transits ran near 15% of pre-war levels this weekend, under 10 ships versus a normal 100. Kazakhstan more than halved output. SEB notes a political pause adds no barrels today.
The market loved the pause: bonds bid, yields and dollar softer, gold and stocks up. Duration beats the peak, and July is still up over 20%. Hold below 84 for downside. Reclaim it on re-escalation and 85 to 119 reopens.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USOIL is down 7.9%. Price rejected the descending trendline near 92 last week, exactly as flagged, and is now cracking the 84 to 86.5 confluence, the July 17 flip level. Below sits open air to the 200-day near 74.
The reason for the decline: The US paused strikes for a third day, Iran halted retaliation and is talking to Oman on Hormuz, and the Caspian terminal resumed loadings.
Hormuz transits ran near 15% of pre-war levels this weekend, under 10 ships versus a normal 100. Kazakhstan more than halved output. SEB notes a political pause adds no barrels today.
The market loved the pause: bonds bid, yields and dollar softer, gold and stocks up. Duration beats the peak, and July is still up over 20%. Hold below 84 for downside. Reclaim it on re-escalation and 85 to 119 reopens.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤10👍6
CHF Now Sinks as the SNB Actively Talks It Lower
6S (Swiss Franc Futures) trades near 1.22, breaking below the 1.225 to 1.23 shelf that floored the franc index since last summer. The 200-day near 1.268 has rolled over above price as resistance, confirming a downtrend. Losing this shelf opens the June 2025 lows near 1.18. The index is at fresh lows.
The franc is at a 13-month low versus the dollar despite an active war, so this is genuine CHF weakness, not just dollar strength. The safe haven is failing to catch a bid.
Two forces override the haven appeal. The SNB sits at 0%, the world's lowest, and keeps signaling intervention to cap the franc, so it actively leans against strength. Fed hike bets have widened the rate gap. The franc cannot compete on carry and is being talked down by its own central bank.
Today adds risk-on: oil crashed 7% on the US-Iran pause, draining the last haven bid. Swiss inflation at 0.5% gives the SNB no reason to turn.
read the full article here.
— Alan
6S (Swiss Franc Futures) trades near 1.22, breaking below the 1.225 to 1.23 shelf that floored the franc index since last summer. The 200-day near 1.268 has rolled over above price as resistance, confirming a downtrend. Losing this shelf opens the June 2025 lows near 1.18. The index is at fresh lows.
The franc is at a 13-month low versus the dollar despite an active war, so this is genuine CHF weakness, not just dollar strength. The safe haven is failing to catch a bid.
Two forces override the haven appeal. The SNB sits at 0%, the world's lowest, and keeps signaling intervention to cap the franc, so it actively leans against strength. Fed hike bets have widened the rate gap. The franc cannot compete on carry and is being talked down by its own central bank.
Today adds risk-on: oil crashed 7% on the US-Iran pause, draining the last haven bid. Swiss inflation at 0.5% gives the SNB no reason to turn.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤12👍6
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🫡13❤2
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
In an uptrend, price making a higher high than the previous swing confirms:
In an uptrend, price making a higher high than the previous swing confirms:
Anonymous Quiz
23%
Momentum is accelerating — the size of the higher high determines trend strength
11%
Demand exceeds the last swing — but only if volume also increases on the move
66%
Trend structure remains intact — buyers are still in control at new price extremes
❤16👍3😁3