KOSPI Now Crashes 10% as China Cracks the Chip Moat
KOSPI is down 10.8% today, one of its worst sessions ever, with circuit breakers halting trade. Price sliced to the rising 200-day near 5,650, the first support after a vertical drop from the June high above 9,300.
Samsung fell 13%, SK Hynix 15%, each down about 50% from June.
The Information reported a Chinese state firm is mass-producing DUV lithography, the tool ASML has dominated. If China builds its own at scale, the thesis that the US controls the AI supply chain cracks. Korea's memory giants are most exposed.
Earlier chip selloffs were crowded positioning unwinding. This one questions the moat itself, which is why it gapped rather than bled.
Keeping some perspective. Output is really tiny, five machines this year, and Morningstar calls it "overdone."
read the full article here.
— Alan
KOSPI is down 10.8% today, one of its worst sessions ever, with circuit breakers halting trade. Price sliced to the rising 200-day near 5,650, the first support after a vertical drop from the June high above 9,300.
Samsung fell 13%, SK Hynix 15%, each down about 50% from June.
The Information reported a Chinese state firm is mass-producing DUV lithography, the tool ASML has dominated. If China builds its own at scale, the thesis that the US controls the AI supply chain cracks. Korea's memory giants are most exposed.
Earlier chip selloffs were crowded positioning unwinding. This one questions the moat itself, which is why it gapped rather than bled.
Keeping some perspective. Output is really tiny, five machines this year, and Morningstar calls it "overdone."
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤15👍5
DXY Now Stalls at 102 Resistance Right Into Fed Day
DXY trades near 101.35, a five-week high, stalling just under 102 resistance heading into Fed day. Price has been moving in a straight line up since buyers held the upward trendline, and price is up against the ceiling that has capped every advance since June.
USOil is down roughly 15% from last week's highs on the US-Iran pause, yet yields hold near multi-month highs and July hike odds sit near 40%, up from 11% two weeks ago. September is near 95%. Yields did not follow oil down, which says the repricing is now policy and term premium, not just energy.
That is why the dollar holds. Traders are covering tails and adding longs into a live meeting. A hike is not the base case, but it is no longer dismissed.
A surprise hike: DXY breaks 102
A dovish surprise: price fails at resistance and 100.45 returns.
The Fed is first to kick off central bank week. With BoE Thursday and BoJ Friday.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY trades near 101.35, a five-week high, stalling just under 102 resistance heading into Fed day. Price has been moving in a straight line up since buyers held the upward trendline, and price is up against the ceiling that has capped every advance since June.
USOil is down roughly 15% from last week's highs on the US-Iran pause, yet yields hold near multi-month highs and July hike odds sit near 40%, up from 11% two weeks ago. September is near 95%. Yields did not follow oil down, which says the repricing is now policy and term premium, not just energy.
That is why the dollar holds. Traders are covering tails and adding longs into a live meeting. A hike is not the base case, but it is no longer dismissed.
A surprise hike: DXY breaks 102
A dovish surprise: price fails at resistance and 100.45 returns.
The Fed is first to kick off central bank week. With BoE Thursday and BoJ Friday.
read the full article here.
— Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Increasing volume on a price move always means the move is more likely to continue.
Increasing volume on a price move always means the move is more likely to continue.
Anonymous Quiz
58%
True
42%
False
❤14👍1
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I usually do two markups a day, but I decided that for today I'll do one jumbo one to sum up the session. And it's kind of tricky if I'm being honest with myself.
The Fed held this afternoon and the bond market is spending the of the session disagreeing with it.
3.50-3.75%, a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting in favor of a hike. Three dissents pointing the same direction is the most since 2016. Warsh kept calling it the "family fight" he had asked for.
Then the curve split... The two-year fell, which is the front end taking him at his word. But the thirty-year pushed to 5.226% as I write this, a level it has not seen since 2007, and the ten-year sits at 4.694% against the top of the range that has capped it all month.
Worth understanding why, because this will happen again. The Fed sets exactly one rate, the overnight rate, and the two-year is roughly the average overnight rate the market expects over two years. The thirty-year is not a forecast of Fed policy at all. It is a price for risk. Today the front end priced the Fed's patience and the long end priced what that patience might cost.
Growth and eroding credibility both steepen a curve, so the curve alone will not tell you which one you have. Growth: equities up, volatility down, dollar stronger. Term premium: equities down, volatility up, dollar offered.
At the equity close the Dow was down 2.19% for its worst day since April 2025 (tariff liberation day), the S&P down 1.52%, the Nasdaq down 2.35% and into correction. VIX up more than 13%. Oil up roughly 7% due to the Middle East of course.
The dollar is what I keep coming back to. A growth scare bids the dollar, because frightened capital needs dollars to buy Treasuries. DXY fell 0.44% into all of that. That is the piece that does not fit, and it is why I read this as the market demanding more compensation to hold US assets rather than running toward them.
Where I could be wrong: this is purely after the meeting, and the two-year's decline has already shrunk through the afternoon. If it turns higher and both ends rise together, this is a plain bear steepener and my read is finished.
read the full article here.
— Alan
The Fed held this afternoon and the bond market is spending the of the session disagreeing with it.
3.50-3.75%, a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting in favor of a hike. Three dissents pointing the same direction is the most since 2016. Warsh kept calling it the "family fight" he had asked for.
Then the curve split... The two-year fell, which is the front end taking him at his word. But the thirty-year pushed to 5.226% as I write this, a level it has not seen since 2007, and the ten-year sits at 4.694% against the top of the range that has capped it all month.
Worth understanding why, because this will happen again. The Fed sets exactly one rate, the overnight rate, and the two-year is roughly the average overnight rate the market expects over two years. The thirty-year is not a forecast of Fed policy at all. It is a price for risk. Today the front end priced the Fed's patience and the long end priced what that patience might cost.
Growth and eroding credibility both steepen a curve, so the curve alone will not tell you which one you have. Growth: equities up, volatility down, dollar stronger. Term premium: equities down, volatility up, dollar offered.
At the equity close the Dow was down 2.19% for its worst day since April 2025 (tariff liberation day), the S&P down 1.52%, the Nasdaq down 2.35% and into correction. VIX up more than 13%. Oil up roughly 7% due to the Middle East of course.
The dollar is what I keep coming back to. A growth scare bids the dollar, because frightened capital needs dollars to buy Treasuries. DXY fell 0.44% into all of that. That is the piece that does not fit, and it is why I read this as the market demanding more compensation to hold US assets rather than running toward them.
Where I could be wrong: this is purely after the meeting, and the two-year's decline has already shrunk through the afternoon. If it turns higher and both ends rise together, this is a plain bear steepener and my read is finished.
read the full article here.
— Alan
A1 Trading
The Yield Curve Flashed a Warning Just Now -
The 30-year hit a 19-year high as the Fed held rates. Learn to tell a growth steepener from a term premium steepener, and what to watch next.
👍12❤9🫡3
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A bear steepener occurs when short-term yields fall while long-term yields remain unchanged.
A bear steepener occurs when short-term yields fall while long-term yields remain unchanged.
Anonymous Quiz
57%
True
43%
False
❤11🔥2👍1
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Crude Oil Now Faces a Critical Test at the $85 Handle
WTI is hugging an important level of resistance, or potentially support.
Oil rallied off the early-July low near 68, ran into the trendline drawn from the April high, and tapped 92.79 before sellers took it back. Price has since fallen about ten percent and sits just under the 84 to 86.40 band that held as support through June. $85 is the level I am marking.
Supply news has been uniformly bullish for two weeks while price fell. Iran struck a US base in Jordan, CENTCOM answered, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted Black Sea loading. EIA put commercial crude down 7.2 million barrels and the strategic reserve at its lowest since 1983.
Price still trades nine dollars below where it was eight sessions ago. Positioning is repricing headlines faster than the physical market is changing. A close above 86.40 reopens 92. A rejection here puts 76 in play.
read the full article here.
— Alan
WTI is hugging an important level of resistance, or potentially support.
Oil rallied off the early-July low near 68, ran into the trendline drawn from the April high, and tapped 92.79 before sellers took it back. Price has since fallen about ten percent and sits just under the 84 to 86.40 band that held as support through June. $85 is the level I am marking.
Supply news has been uniformly bullish for two weeks while price fell. Iran struck a US base in Jordan, CENTCOM answered, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted Black Sea loading. EIA put commercial crude down 7.2 million barrels and the strategic reserve at its lowest since 1983.
Price still trades nine dollars below where it was eight sessions ago. Positioning is repricing headlines faster than the physical market is changing. A close above 86.40 reopens 92. A rejection here puts 76 in play.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤15👍1
USD/JPY Now Tests 158 After a Massive Intervention Drop
USDJPY is down 2.8% with a juicy range over 500 pips. Six days ago it printed a 40-year high at 163.99.
I'm almost certain this was intervention. The yen gained against every major cross, EURJPY fell 400 pips in minutes, and nothing on the calendar explains it. US PCE was cooler but not THAT cooler. Price wicked into 158, held the 200-day average almost exactly, and has recovered ninety pips.
I am cautious about buying it.. Japan spent a record 73 billion dollars across April and May, and the yen made fresh 40-year lows nine weeks later. The BOJ is already at 1.00%, its highest since 1995, and the pair still reached 164. Brent near 90 with Hormuz shut keeps the import bill selling yen.
BOJ late in the evening, and surprises could add more fuel to this fire.. Below 158.00 I watch 157.60, then 155.00.
Trade safely everyone. Small size and wide stops to absorb unexpected vol.
read the full article here.
— Alan
USDJPY is down 2.8% with a juicy range over 500 pips. Six days ago it printed a 40-year high at 163.99.
I'm almost certain this was intervention. The yen gained against every major cross, EURJPY fell 400 pips in minutes, and nothing on the calendar explains it. US PCE was cooler but not THAT cooler. Price wicked into 158, held the 200-day average almost exactly, and has recovered ninety pips.
I am cautious about buying it.. Japan spent a record 73 billion dollars across April and May, and the yen made fresh 40-year lows nine weeks later. The BOJ is already at 1.00%, its highest since 1995, and the pair still reached 164. Brent near 90 with Hormuz shut keeps the import bill selling yen.
BOJ late in the evening, and surprises could add more fuel to this fire.. Below 158.00 I watch 157.60, then 155.00.
Trade safely everyone. Small size and wide stops to absorb unexpected vol.
read the full article here.
— Alan
🔥19❤12👍4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Implied volatility reflects:
Implied volatility reflects:
Anonymous Quiz
24%
The market's forward-looking expectation of price movement, calculated similar to historical vol.
12%
A blended average of historical volatility and current options open interest
17%
A statistical measure of past price swings, adjusted for current options demand
47%
The market's forward-looking expectation of price movement, derived from current options prices
❤10👍7
GBPUSD: Buyers Now Step Right In at Key Level
Today's pullback tagged the 38.2% and buyers stepped in for 52 pips. The deeper 0.618 at 1.3298 held in late July, the higher-quality entry. Overhead, the 1.362 resistance has capped every rally since May.
The pound is heading for a July gain over 1%, its best month since April, on eased political risk after Burnham and a fiscal pledge. The BoE held 6 to 3, more hawkish than the 7 to 2 expected.
But the vote flattered the tone. Bailey pushed back hard on tightening and markets trimmed to one hike this year. Name the driver: this bid now rests on dollar weakness and UK stability, not the BoE.
EdgeFinder reads Very Bullish at +11, and structure agrees while 1.340 holds.The upside leans on a soft dollar. Reclaim 1.362 and the range breaks and we can get outside of range trading. I'm likely expected a stall at the upper level of resistance unless something marginally changes for the UK.
read the full article here.
— Alan
Today's pullback tagged the 38.2% and buyers stepped in for 52 pips. The deeper 0.618 at 1.3298 held in late July, the higher-quality entry. Overhead, the 1.362 resistance has capped every rally since May.
The pound is heading for a July gain over 1%, its best month since April, on eased political risk after Burnham and a fiscal pledge. The BoE held 6 to 3, more hawkish than the 7 to 2 expected.
But the vote flattered the tone. Bailey pushed back hard on tightening and markets trimmed to one hike this year. Name the driver: this bid now rests on dollar weakness and UK stability, not the BoE.
EdgeFinder reads Very Bullish at +11, and structure agrees while 1.340 holds.The upside leans on a soft dollar. Reclaim 1.362 and the range breaks and we can get outside of range trading. I'm likely expected a stall at the upper level of resistance unless something marginally changes for the UK.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤19👍2🫡2
DXY Now Breaks Confluence Support as the Bear Case Lands
DXY is breaking down through the 100.5 demand zone and the trendline off the May lows together. That confluence break confirms the setup I flagged earlier, which is: lose this shelf and dollar shorts have their trade. The broken zone is now resistance after the pullback into that level failed to attract enough buyers.
The dollar is heading for its worst week in three months. The Fed held a fifth straight meeting, and Warsh reiterated price stability but gave little guidance. The market read it as postponing an inevitable hike.
That credibility question is doing the damage. Holding while inflation is elevated erodes real short rates. September odds eased to two-thirds from near 80%. Cooler CPI and PPI, flat PCE and softer NFP give the Fed room to stay patient.
EdgeFinder flipped to Bearish at -5, and follow-through needs next month's data to keep cooling.
read the full article here.
— Alan
DXY is breaking down through the 100.5 demand zone and the trendline off the May lows together. That confluence break confirms the setup I flagged earlier, which is: lose this shelf and dollar shorts have their trade. The broken zone is now resistance after the pullback into that level failed to attract enough buyers.
The dollar is heading for its worst week in three months. The Fed held a fifth straight meeting, and Warsh reiterated price stability but gave little guidance. The market read it as postponing an inevitable hike.
That credibility question is doing the damage. Holding while inflation is elevated erodes real short rates. September odds eased to two-thirds from near 80%. Cooler CPI and PPI, flat PCE and softer NFP give the Fed room to stay patient.
EdgeFinder flipped to Bearish at -5, and follow-through needs next month's data to keep cooling.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤22👍14
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A country with a higher nominal interest rate than another will always have a stronger currency.
A country with a higher nominal interest rate than another will always have a stronger currency.
Anonymous Quiz
46%
True
54%
False
❤13👍1
USD/JPY Now Breaks the 200-Day After Joint Intervention
USDJPY is at 156.67 after wicking to 155.20 this morning, roughly a three-month low.
Japan confirmed Monday that Friday's yen buying was coordinated with the US Treasury, the first joint operation to buy yen since 1998. Treasury funded it by selling euros rather than dollars, which is close to unprecedented. Tokyo may have spent about $59bn on Thursday alone.
The BOJ held at 1.00% Friday in an 8-1 vote, with Takata dissenting for 1.25%, and Ueda kept September in play. Intervention alongside a hawkish central bank is the combination that has historically made these moves last.
Price now sits below the 200-day average for the first time in this advance, so roughly 158 has flipped from support to resistance. Buyers defended 155.00 to 155.60 today.
I want a daily close back above 158 before I treat the uptrend as intact. Beneath 155.00 the next zone is 152.30 to 152.80.
read the full article here
— Alan
USDJPY is at 156.67 after wicking to 155.20 this morning, roughly a three-month low.
Japan confirmed Monday that Friday's yen buying was coordinated with the US Treasury, the first joint operation to buy yen since 1998. Treasury funded it by selling euros rather than dollars, which is close to unprecedented. Tokyo may have spent about $59bn on Thursday alone.
The BOJ held at 1.00% Friday in an 8-1 vote, with Takata dissenting for 1.25%, and Ueda kept September in play. Intervention alongside a hawkish central bank is the combination that has historically made these moves last.
Price now sits below the 200-day average for the first time in this advance, so roughly 158 has flipped from support to resistance. Buyers defended 155.00 to 155.60 today.
I want a daily close back above 158 before I treat the uptrend as intact. Beneath 155.00 the next zone is 152.30 to 152.80.
read the full article here
— Alan
👍15❤10
Oil Now Softens on a Deal Iran Says Is Not Real
WTI is down roughly 9% and at a three-week low.
Trump called off a planned strike on Iran on Sunday, saying the perimeters of a deal had been agreed and that talks would begin Monday, with the reopening of Hormuz as a condition. Iran denies any negotiation with Washington and describes only Oman talks on strait management. This repricing rests on a claim one of the two parties disputes.
OPEC+ added about 188,000 bpd from September, completing the unwinding of its 2023 cuts. Those quota increases have produced few actual barrels while Hormuz stayed shut. A genuine reopening converts them into real supply, which is why I think the downside here runs deeper than the headline implies.
Price broke the 84.00 to 86.50 band that held through July, so it reads as resistance now. Things can change though. We're all used to positive headlines to start off the weak and then peak fear going into the weekend.
read the full article here.
— Alan
WTI is down roughly 9% and at a three-week low.
Trump called off a planned strike on Iran on Sunday, saying the perimeters of a deal had been agreed and that talks would begin Monday, with the reopening of Hormuz as a condition. Iran denies any negotiation with Washington and describes only Oman talks on strait management. This repricing rests on a claim one of the two parties disputes.
OPEC+ added about 188,000 bpd from September, completing the unwinding of its 2023 cuts. Those quota increases have produced few actual barrels while Hormuz stayed shut. A genuine reopening converts them into real supply, which is why I think the downside here runs deeper than the headline implies.
Price broke the 84.00 to 86.50 band that held through July, so it reads as resistance now. Things can change though. We're all used to positive headlines to start off the weak and then peak fear going into the weekend.
read the full article here.
— Alan
❤17👍10🔥3
I trade many things.
I trade:
- Forex
- Stocks
- ETFs
- Indices (US & international)
- Commodities
- Options
"But Nick, I thought we were supposed to master trading one chart!"
While for some this might be a logical approach (especially for daytraders) - here's why it does not fit my swing trading style at all.
There are times where gold ranges for 3 months straight. As a trend trader, that sounds like a nightmare to only trade gold!
But there are also times where stocks fall for a year straight. Being a long only growth stock trader / investor is great in a bull market, but a disaster in a down market.
But what about forex! Certainly there are plenty of options there!
Have you seen FX volatility in the last few years? It has crashed completely. As a trend trader - I needvolatility. FX has been relatively boring vs 5 years ago (outside of the japanese yen recently!)
Options are great - but theres only unique windows where I love to trade them.
The point is: there's a time to trade all!
I trade:
- Forex
- Stocks
- ETFs
- Indices (US & international)
- Commodities
- Options
"But Nick, I thought we were supposed to master trading one chart!"
While for some this might be a logical approach (especially for daytraders) - here's why it does not fit my swing trading style at all.
There are times where gold ranges for 3 months straight. As a trend trader, that sounds like a nightmare to only trade gold!
But there are also times where stocks fall for a year straight. Being a long only growth stock trader / investor is great in a bull market, but a disaster in a down market.
But what about forex! Certainly there are plenty of options there!
Have you seen FX volatility in the last few years? It has crashed completely. As a trend trader - I needvolatility. FX has been relatively boring vs 5 years ago (outside of the japanese yen recently!)
Options are great - but theres only unique windows where I love to trade them.
The point is: there's a time to trade all!
❤29🔥7👍6
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Rebalancing a portfolio back to target weights after a market rally necessarily involves selling the asset that has appreciated the most.
Rebalancing a portfolio back to target weights after a market rally necessarily involves selling the asset that has appreciated the most.
Anonymous Quiz
58%
True — rebalancing requires trimming the overweight winner
42%
False — new capital can fund underweight positions instead of selling
❤11🙏2😱1