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RSP Drops 2.8% as Every S&P 500 Sector Goes Red

Risk is coming off hard today. The equal-weight S&P, RSP, is down about 2.8% and the VIX is jumping while equities sell off across the board.

What makes today stand out is the breadth. This started as a tech story, but the selling has spread across the whole market. All eleven S&P sectors are red in midday trade, and even the defensives that usually hold up, staples and utilities, are getting dragged down too. The last time every sector closed lower was back in June.

The VIX popped huge today, and as of now, there's no signs of slowing down.

read the full article here.

β€” Alan
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Dow Jones Daily Chart

I still like the broader market in this environment, but I really need to see signs of a bottoming formation before I buy this falling knife. The spot I am watching is the rising trendline off the October low, which is right where price is sitting now.

On a relative basis, I think the broader market starts to outperform tech if we get any kind of rebound, and that is a rates story. December hike odds just dropped from around 80% to 69%, so dovish repricing is working its way in. If you start to see a V-bottom or the dust settling in the near term, I think the best value is still in the equal weight, not necessarily tech.

If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here :

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β€” Alan
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Nasdaq daily chart: Tech stock WIPEOUT!

After losing the 200 day moving average, price is in free fall - quickly approaching the 26000 mark.

Concerns over the stability of the AI buildout due to policymakers potentially more strongly countering datacenter construction are suddenly front and center in this market.

- Nick
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Gold daily chart:

Technicals: still in a downtrend, my stop is just over today's intraday highs

Macro: Inflation sticky, economic growth resilitent, fed hikes. Bearish for now

- Nick
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Gold macro read:
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πŸ”” Closing Bell - Question of the Day

A trader doubles the stop distance on a setup. To keep dollar risk unchanged, what should NOT happen?
Anonymous Quiz
10%
A) The stop is placed beyond normal noise
36%
B) Position size is cut in half
20%
C) Dollar risk is recalculated before entry
34%
D) Position size stays the same
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DXY Outperforms Every Major After a Hot Jobs Print

Nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, more than double the roughly 65,000 expected, last month’s number was revised up from 29,000 to 60,000, and unemployment ticked down to 4.1%. That is strong across the board, and it hands the Fed what it needs to commit to a December hike. Hike odds started the week near 80%, dipped toward 60% midweek, and are back near 75% now.

A report like this pushes short-term yields up, and the dollar follows right along. DXY tapped 102.9 earlier, pulled back only to the 38.2% retracement near 101.273, and is now back up around 102.1. That shallow pullback tells me there is room to push higher, probably toward the 103 handle. The dollar is outperforming every major, with the crosses red across the board.

I think upside is capped near 103 for now, with a second 2027 hike still up for debate, so that is the next target.

EdgeFinder currently reads bullish +8, which is the obvious right call.

read the full article here.

β€” Alan
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Gold 4 Hour Chart

Our short Gold trade is cooking today, as stronger than expected jobs data reinforces the December rate hike. This change is probabilities provides short-term headwinds for Gold, and provides a bid for USD.

The EdgeFinder has turned increasingly bearish, now sitting at a score of -13.

We'll be managing the trade proactively as we continue on this volatile week.

If you want updates / alerts of new trades being taken, join our VIP group here :

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β€” Alan
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Gold Daily Chart:

Bearish trend still intact, and jobs today further supported the bearish macro view.

While a pop up to 4200 is possible, I still think the likely direction is lower for the time being.

I will attach an image of EdgeFinder for a macro summary

- Nick
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πŸ”” Closing Bell - Question of the Day

If nominal wages rise 4% and inflation runs 5%, workers are not worse off, since paychecks grew.
Anonymous Quiz
87%
A) False: real wages fell roughly 1%, so purchasing power shrank
13%
B) True: nominal growth is what households actually receive
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