Oil Stays Elevated as Supply Risks Remain Front and Center
Oil is staying elevated because supply risk is still very real.
WTI pushed up toward $96 as markets stayed locked in on the Middle East, where any further escalation could tighten flows and keep crude supported. Even with some mixed rhetoric from the US side suggesting this could cool off, the bigger issue is that the market still sees too many ways supply can get disrupted.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main pressure point, and now traders are also watching the Red Sea. If the Houthis get involved and threaten Bab el-Mandeb, that would add another major layer of risk and likely send oil even higher. So for now, despite some talk that this could settle down, the supply backdrop still leans bullish for crude.
- Alan
Oil is staying elevated because supply risk is still very real.
WTI pushed up toward $96 as markets stayed locked in on the Middle East, where any further escalation could tighten flows and keep crude supported. Even with some mixed rhetoric from the US side suggesting this could cool off, the bigger issue is that the market still sees too many ways supply can get disrupted.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main pressure point, and now traders are also watching the Red Sea. If the Houthis get involved and threaten Bab el-Mandeb, that would add another major layer of risk and likely send oil even higher. So for now, despite some talk that this could settle down, the supply backdrop still leans bullish for crude.
- Alan
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Kiwi Rises on Hawkish Central Bank Pricing, but Growth May Override The Move
The Kiwi caught a bid as major central banks broadly leaned hawkish, helping support most majors yesterday, including NZD/USD.
Under the surface though, the backdrop is less encouraging. New Zealand GDP came in weaker than expected, pointing to a still-fragile recovery, while ongoing Middle East tensions add another layer of risk to the growth outlook. At the same time, inflation concerns are building, with markets now pricing a 50% chance the RBNZ could begin hiking as soon as May, with tighter policy more fully priced by September and December.
That is the problem for the Kiwi longer term. Inflation and weak growth are a bad mix. While the hawkish shift helped lift NZD in the short run, the broader macro backdrop still keeps the currency under pressure. For now, NZD is up nearly 2% on the week and is on pace to snap a two-week losing streak.
- Alan
The Kiwi caught a bid as major central banks broadly leaned hawkish, helping support most majors yesterday, including NZD/USD.
Under the surface though, the backdrop is less encouraging. New Zealand GDP came in weaker than expected, pointing to a still-fragile recovery, while ongoing Middle East tensions add another layer of risk to the growth outlook. At the same time, inflation concerns are building, with markets now pricing a 50% chance the RBNZ could begin hiking as soon as May, with tighter policy more fully priced by September and December.
That is the problem for the Kiwi longer term. Inflation and weak growth are a bad mix. While the hawkish shift helped lift NZD in the short run, the broader macro backdrop still keeps the currency under pressure. For now, NZD is up nearly 2% on the week and is on pace to snap a two-week losing streak.
- Alan
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Expecting Rate Cuts?😮
Chart of the Day: NAS100🔥
Chart of the Day: NAS100🔥
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Nas is threatening a pretty ugly looking close today, failing to hold the 200 day moving average and possibly this critical area of support.
Definitely concerning, with oil spiking into the close.
That said: reminder that often we will see a bid up on oil prices prior to a weekend, as short sellers cover to avoid holding a possible gap up move.
Same with equities - people may be choosing to sell in order to not carry the overnight risk.
- Nick
Definitely concerning, with oil spiking into the close.
That said: reminder that often we will see a bid up on oil prices prior to a weekend, as short sellers cover to avoid holding a possible gap up move.
Same with equities - people may be choosing to sell in order to not carry the overnight risk.
- Nick
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Oof meter ⚖️
S&P500: -7.3% from the highs
NASDAQ: -9.1% from the highs
DOW: -9.8% from the highs
Russell2k: -11.2% from the highs
Bitcoin: -45% from the highs
Silver: -44.3% from the highs 💀
Gold: -20% from the highs
S&P500: -7.3% from the highs
NASDAQ: -9.1% from the highs
DOW: -9.8% from the highs
Russell2k: -11.2% from the highs
Bitcoin: -45% from the highs
Silver: -44.3% from the highs 💀
Gold: -20% from the highs
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What is a balance of payments, and why can it break a currency?
What is a balance of payments, and why can it break a currency?
Anonymous Quiz
36%
A record of all transactions between a country and the rest of the world (trade + capital flows)
13%
A country’s net tax revenue minus spending, which determines its FX value
31%
A measure of how much a country exports relative to imports, excluding capital flows
20%
The central bank’s reserve balance sheet that directly sets the exchange rate
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A winner has been selected for the free EdgeFinder giveaway!
w*h***a@gmail. com please check your inbox for your free access :)
w*h***a@gmail. com please check your inbox for your free access :)
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If you did not win - stay tuned. We have some free handouts coming next week 🔥
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$2 TRILLION Wiped Out From Gold and Silver, Could It Continue?
Gold is still under pressure, down for a ninth straight session and sitting near multi-month lows. Even after trimming some losses, price action remains weak with no real sign of a sustained bounce.
This is a macro unwind driven by higher yields and hawkish central banks. Gold and silver saw massive liquidation as Middle East tensions pushed yields sharply higher, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
There was a brief relief bounce after Trump delayed strikes on Iran, but it wasn’t enough to shift the trend. Inflation fears tied to oil and the conflict are keeping central banks on edge, with markets now even pricing the risk of a Fed hike by year-end, while the ECB, BoE, and BoJ all signal tightening if needed.
On top of that, there’s growing talk that governments could liquidate gold reserves to manage economic fallout—adding another layer of downside pressure.
- Alan
Gold is still under pressure, down for a ninth straight session and sitting near multi-month lows. Even after trimming some losses, price action remains weak with no real sign of a sustained bounce.
This is a macro unwind driven by higher yields and hawkish central banks. Gold and silver saw massive liquidation as Middle East tensions pushed yields sharply higher, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
There was a brief relief bounce after Trump delayed strikes on Iran, but it wasn’t enough to shift the trend. Inflation fears tied to oil and the conflict are keeping central banks on edge, with markets now even pricing the risk of a Fed hike by year-end, while the ECB, BoE, and BoJ all signal tightening if needed.
On top of that, there’s growing talk that governments could liquidate gold reserves to manage economic fallout—adding another layer of downside pressure.
- Alan
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Oil Whipsaws Lower on Iran Talk Hopes After Weekend Spike
Oil opened higher Sunday but saw a sharp reversal lower, with a fast breakdown into the U.S. session. The move was aggressive, with Brent briefly slipping below $100 and WTI toward the high $80s, before attempting to stabilize. Expect continued volatility as markets search for direction.
This was a headline-driven unwind. Initial strength flipped into a 10%+ selloff after Trump signaled progress in talks with Iran and delayed strikes on key energy infrastructure. That immediately pulled out the war risk premium priced into crude.
But the move didn’t fully stick—Iranian media pushed back on the “productive talks,” leaving markets in limbo. Now it’s a tug-of-war between de-escalation hopes and ongoing uncertainty.
Oil is trading purely off headlines right now. Equities, metals, FX, and oil all whipsawed hard. Until there’s clarity, expect unstable price action.
- Alan
Oil opened higher Sunday but saw a sharp reversal lower, with a fast breakdown into the U.S. session. The move was aggressive, with Brent briefly slipping below $100 and WTI toward the high $80s, before attempting to stabilize. Expect continued volatility as markets search for direction.
This was a headline-driven unwind. Initial strength flipped into a 10%+ selloff after Trump signaled progress in talks with Iran and delayed strikes on key energy infrastructure. That immediately pulled out the war risk premium priced into crude.
But the move didn’t fully stick—Iranian media pushed back on the “productive talks,” leaving markets in limbo. Now it’s a tug-of-war between de-escalation hopes and ongoing uncertainty.
Oil is trading purely off headlines right now. Equities, metals, FX, and oil all whipsawed hard. Until there’s clarity, expect unstable price action.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What happens to real yields if inflation rises faster than nominal yields?
What happens to real yields if inflation rises faster than nominal yields?
Anonymous Quiz
49%
Real yields fall
40%
Real yields rise
11%
Real yields are not affected by inflation
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Nasdaq Is Vulnerable, Here's Why
The Nasdaq is under pressure, trading below the 200-day moving average and testing the 24,000 support zone. This is a key inflection point. A clean break and hold below this level opens the door toward the next major support near 22,000, which would put the index roughly -15% off the highs.
Equities are getting squeezed from both sides: risk-off flows and higher rate prospects. The ongoing Middle East conflict is pushing capital out of risk assets and into the safe-haven dollar, weighing on tech and growth names.
At the same time, rising yields are tightening financial conditions. Higher rates increase borrowing costs for companies, reduce future cash flow valuations (especially for high-growth tech), and compress multiples—making it harder for equities to sustain upside.
If oil stays elevated and keeps inflation pressure alive, yields likely remain higher for longer. That combination leaves the Nasdaq vulnerable to further downside.
- Alan
The Nasdaq is under pressure, trading below the 200-day moving average and testing the 24,000 support zone. This is a key inflection point. A clean break and hold below this level opens the door toward the next major support near 22,000, which would put the index roughly -15% off the highs.
Equities are getting squeezed from both sides: risk-off flows and higher rate prospects. The ongoing Middle East conflict is pushing capital out of risk assets and into the safe-haven dollar, weighing on tech and growth names.
At the same time, rising yields are tightening financial conditions. Higher rates increase borrowing costs for companies, reduce future cash flow valuations (especially for high-growth tech), and compress multiples—making it harder for equities to sustain upside.
If oil stays elevated and keeps inflation pressure alive, yields likely remain higher for longer. That combination leaves the Nasdaq vulnerable to further downside.
- Alan
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NZD/USD Slides as RBNZ Says No Hikes Yet
NZD/USD is under pressure, trading near a two-month low. Price remains heavy despite a brief bounce—momentum still favors the downside unless risk sentiment stabilizes. Currently trading below the 200 & 50 Day Moving Averages.
Kiwi is getting dragged lower as markets fade the risk-on bounce. Initial optimism from delayed U.S. strikes on Iran quickly reversed after conflicting headlines, keeping uncertainty elevated. That’s weighing on risk currencies like NZD.
On the policy side, the RBNZ is taking a more patient approach. Yesterday, Governor Breman signaled the bank will look through short-term energy spikes, with no urgency to hike unless inflation becomes entrenched. Markets have pulled back near-term hike expectations, with odds of a May move declining and swaps easing off recent highs.
Between softer rate expectations and fragile risk sentiment, NZD remains under pressure. Currently the EdgeFinder shows a strong -11 bearish reading.
- Alan
NZD/USD is under pressure, trading near a two-month low. Price remains heavy despite a brief bounce—momentum still favors the downside unless risk sentiment stabilizes. Currently trading below the 200 & 50 Day Moving Averages.
Kiwi is getting dragged lower as markets fade the risk-on bounce. Initial optimism from delayed U.S. strikes on Iran quickly reversed after conflicting headlines, keeping uncertainty elevated. That’s weighing on risk currencies like NZD.
On the policy side, the RBNZ is taking a more patient approach. Yesterday, Governor Breman signaled the bank will look through short-term energy spikes, with no urgency to hike unless inflation becomes entrenched. Markets have pulled back near-term hike expectations, with odds of a May move declining and swaps easing off recent highs.
Between softer rate expectations and fragile risk sentiment, NZD remains under pressure. Currently the EdgeFinder shows a strong -11 bearish reading.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A trader identifies a level where price has reversed multiple times historically. This level is best described as:
A trader identifies a level where price has reversed multiple times historically. This level is best described as:
Anonymous Quiz
9%
A Fibonacci retracement
86%
Support or resistance
4%
A moving average crossover
2%
A volume spike
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