AUD/USD Stable as Oil Pullback Supports Risk Sentiment
AUD/USD is stuck in a tight range here—support sits at ~0.6900, while resistance comes in at 0.71500.
The Aussie is stabilizing as oil pulls back, helping risk sentiment a bit after recent pressure. That said, the macro backdrop is still mixed.
Inflation data didn’t move the needle much—headline CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% YoY, and core came in a touch softer at 3.3%, but both remain above the RBA’s target. The bigger story is energy. With petrol prices up ~45%, markets are expecting inflation to re-accelerate near-term.
Because of that, the RBA is still in play for more hikes. Markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a May hike, with rates potentially pushing toward ~4.75% by year-end. That’s keeping a floor under AUD for now.
On the flip side, broader rate expectations and global risk still matter. If yields stay elevated and risk sentiment rolls over again, AUD likely struggles to sustain upside.
- Alan
AUD/USD is stuck in a tight range here—support sits at ~0.6900, while resistance comes in at 0.71500.
The Aussie is stabilizing as oil pulls back, helping risk sentiment a bit after recent pressure. That said, the macro backdrop is still mixed.
Inflation data didn’t move the needle much—headline CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% YoY, and core came in a touch softer at 3.3%, but both remain above the RBA’s target. The bigger story is energy. With petrol prices up ~45%, markets are expecting inflation to re-accelerate near-term.
Because of that, the RBA is still in play for more hikes. Markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a May hike, with rates potentially pushing toward ~4.75% by year-end. That’s keeping a floor under AUD for now.
On the flip side, broader rate expectations and global risk still matter. If yields stay elevated and risk sentiment rolls over again, AUD likely struggles to sustain upside.
- Alan
❤25👍4😎2
EUR/USD Stabilizes at 1.16 as Oil Pullback Eases Inflation Fears
EUR/USD is stabilizing around the 1.16 handle, holding firm as risk sentiment improves slightly. Price is in a consolidation phase here—waiting on the next catalyst to break out of this range.
The euro is catching a bid on de-escalation hopes in the Middle East, as talk of a potential ceasefire and U.S. peace proposals cools immediate risk. That’s taken some pressure off energy markets, with oil slipping back below $100, easing inflation concerns.
But the backdrop isn’t clean. Iran is pushing back on negotiations, so this “relief” could be fragile.
On the policy side, the ECB remains flexible. Christine Lagarde made it clear they’re ready to act at any meeting if energy-driven inflation spills over. Still, with oil pulling back, markets have dialed down rate expectations—now pricing ~2 hikes instead of 3 by year-end.
That shift in rate expectations is capping upside for EUR, even as short-term sentiment improves.
- Alan
EUR/USD is stabilizing around the 1.16 handle, holding firm as risk sentiment improves slightly. Price is in a consolidation phase here—waiting on the next catalyst to break out of this range.
The euro is catching a bid on de-escalation hopes in the Middle East, as talk of a potential ceasefire and U.S. peace proposals cools immediate risk. That’s taken some pressure off energy markets, with oil slipping back below $100, easing inflation concerns.
But the backdrop isn’t clean. Iran is pushing back on negotiations, so this “relief” could be fragile.
On the policy side, the ECB remains flexible. Christine Lagarde made it clear they’re ready to act at any meeting if energy-driven inflation spills over. Still, with oil pulling back, markets have dialed down rate expectations—now pricing ~2 hikes instead of 3 by year-end.
That shift in rate expectations is capping upside for EUR, even as short-term sentiment improves.
- Alan
❤32🔥3😎2
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
⏳ No Strings Attached: 100% FREE EDGEFINDER ACCESS (This week only!)
Fill out this form to get free access to the EdgeFinder until March 31st
👉Get Free Access
Fill out this form to get free access to the EdgeFinder until March 31st
👉Get Free Access
🔥17❤7😎2
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What happens when markets become one-directional?
What happens when markets become one-directional?
Anonymous Quiz
21%
Volatility declines as direction becomes clearer
11%
Volatility declines as direction becomes clearer
42%
Sharp reversal risk increases
26%
Liquidity improves as more participants join
😁16👍3
The Chart That Will Answer All Your Questions
Yields are driving asset price action right now. When yields rise, markets price in higher-for-longer rates—pressuring equities, gold, and other risk assets. When yields fall, it signals a shift back toward easier policy and supports risk.
The US10Y pushing toward ~4.35% tells you everything about positioning—rates higher = tighter conditions.
Rising yields reflect sticky inflation expectations and higher-for-longer policy, largely driven by the energy shock tied to Middle East tensions. As long as oil stays elevated and inflation risk lingers, the Fed has no urgency to ease.
Watch yields. They’re the clearest read on macro sentiment and will dictate where everything else trades.
- Alan
Yields are driving asset price action right now. When yields rise, markets price in higher-for-longer rates—pressuring equities, gold, and other risk assets. When yields fall, it signals a shift back toward easier policy and supports risk.
The US10Y pushing toward ~4.35% tells you everything about positioning—rates higher = tighter conditions.
Rising yields reflect sticky inflation expectations and higher-for-longer policy, largely driven by the energy shock tied to Middle East tensions. As long as oil stays elevated and inflation risk lingers, the Fed has no urgency to ease.
Watch yields. They’re the clearest read on macro sentiment and will dictate where everything else trades.
- Alan
❤32👍12💯4
Equities Need To Overcome Bearish Technicals
To piggy back on the yields story, Nasdaq is losing momentum, trading below the 200-day MA and now starting to give way at the 24,000 support level. If this breaks cleanly, downside opens up fast.
As yields push higher, markets are pricing higher-for-longer rates, which is a headwind for tech and growth. Higher discount rates = lower valuations, simple as that.
At the same time, failed negotiations and mixed signals around the Middle East are keeping oil elevated, feeding inflation expectations and keeping pressure on yields. That combination is what’s weighing on equities.
As long as yields stay elevated and headlines show no real progress, Nasdaq remains vulnerable. If yields keep pushing higher, expect further do
- Alan
To piggy back on the yields story, Nasdaq is losing momentum, trading below the 200-day MA and now starting to give way at the 24,000 support level. If this breaks cleanly, downside opens up fast.
As yields push higher, markets are pricing higher-for-longer rates, which is a headwind for tech and growth. Higher discount rates = lower valuations, simple as that.
At the same time, failed negotiations and mixed signals around the Middle East are keeping oil elevated, feeding inflation expectations and keeping pressure on yields. That combination is what’s weighing on equities.
As long as yields stay elevated and headlines show no real progress, Nasdaq remains vulnerable. If yields keep pushing higher, expect further do
- Alan
❤24👍7🫡6
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What does it imply when financial conditions tighten despite dovish central bank messaging?
What does it imply when financial conditions tighten despite dovish central bank messaging?
Anonymous Quiz
25%
Growth expectations are accelerating faster than policy can respond
43%
Markets are tightening conditions independently of policy guidance
10%
Liquidity is improving but being mispriced by markets
22%
The central bank has already eased enough to offset tightening
❤17😎2🫡1
Oil Is Popping Off Again. Back In The Range
Oil is pushing back toward $96, reclaiming ground after a sharp pullback. Price remains elevated and reactive—this is still a headline-driven market with wide swings.
The bid in oil is coming back as confidence in a near-term deal fades. Mixed signals out of the U.S. and Iran are keeping uncertainty high, while military escalation risks continue to build.
Even with talks ongoing and deadlines being pushed out, the reality is the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck, and supply risk is still very real. That’s why crude is still up significantly since the conflict began.
Until there’s clear de-escalation, oil stays supported. Every failed headline or escalation risk keeps a floor under prices.
- Alan
Oil is pushing back toward $96, reclaiming ground after a sharp pullback. Price remains elevated and reactive—this is still a headline-driven market with wide swings.
The bid in oil is coming back as confidence in a near-term deal fades. Mixed signals out of the U.S. and Iran are keeping uncertainty high, while military escalation risks continue to build.
Even with talks ongoing and deadlines being pushed out, the reality is the Strait of Hormuz remains a bottleneck, and supply risk is still very real. That’s why crude is still up significantly since the conflict began.
Until there’s clear de-escalation, oil stays supported. Every failed headline or escalation risk keeps a floor under prices.
- Alan
❤24👍7😎1
UK Economy Shows Signs of a Slowdown as Inflation Stays Sticky
GBP/USD is hovering near 1.328, sitting right on a key support zone at 1.3250.
The pound is stuck between macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. On the geopolitical side, markets are still skeptical of any near-term resolution in U.S.-Iran tensions. Deadlines keep getting pushed, talks are unclear, and positioning reflects that uncertainty.
At the same time, BoE expectations have flipped hawkish. Markets have gone from pricing cuts to now expecting at least two hikes, possibly more this year. That shift is helping support GBP on dips.
Domestically, the data is mixed. Retail sales weren’t as weak as feared, but consumer confidence is sliding, showing households are feeling the pressure from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
If things worsen—growth deteriorates further while inflation stays high—that’s when the stagflation becomes a reality for the UK.
- Alan
GBP/USD is hovering near 1.328, sitting right on a key support zone at 1.3250.
The pound is stuck between macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. On the geopolitical side, markets are still skeptical of any near-term resolution in U.S.-Iran tensions. Deadlines keep getting pushed, talks are unclear, and positioning reflects that uncertainty.
At the same time, BoE expectations have flipped hawkish. Markets have gone from pricing cuts to now expecting at least two hikes, possibly more this year. That shift is helping support GBP on dips.
Domestically, the data is mixed. Retail sales weren’t as weak as feared, but consumer confidence is sliding, showing households are feeling the pressure from rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
If things worsen—growth deteriorates further while inflation stays high—that’s when the stagflation becomes a reality for the UK.
- Alan
❤23🔥4😎3
Want the EdgeFinder & StockBox for FREE? 🚀
Gain an edge in the markets with the EdgeFinder, our all-in-one market scanning tool, and the StockBox, designed to help you analyze stock setups with ease!
Here’s how you can unlock access:
💰 Deposit $500 – 1 Month VIP Membership
💰 Deposit $5,000 – 1 Year VIP Membership + StockBox
💰 Deposit $10,000 – Gold VIP Membership + EdgeFinder
💰 Deposit $15,000 – Gold VIP Membership + StockBox + EdgeFinder
Ready to take your trading to the next level? 💪
Get started here!
Terms and conditions apply.
Gain an edge in the markets with the EdgeFinder, our all-in-one market scanning tool, and the StockBox, designed to help you analyze stock setups with ease!
Here’s how you can unlock access:
💰 Deposit $500 – 1 Month VIP Membership
💰 Deposit $5,000 – 1 Year VIP Membership + StockBox
💰 Deposit $10,000 – Gold VIP Membership + EdgeFinder
💰 Deposit $15,000 – Gold VIP Membership + StockBox + EdgeFinder
Ready to take your trading to the next level? 💪
Get started here!
Terms and conditions apply.
❤10😎1
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🚨 DON'T MISS OUT! FREE EDGEFINDER ACCESS (This week only!)
Fill out this form to get free access to the EdgeFinder until March 31st
👉Get Free Access
Fill out this form to get free access to the EdgeFinder until March 31st
👉Get Free Access
❤12😎4
🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
What is “forward guidance” from central banks?
What is “forward guidance” from central banks?
Anonymous Quiz
73%
Communication about the likely future path of policy to shape expectations
8%
A legally binding commitment to future interest rate levels
12%
Real-time adjustments to policy based on incoming data only
8%
Direct intervention in markets to control asset prices
❤17😁2😎2
"This software is a game changer for retail traders
Since I started using the EdgeFinder my trading results have transformed. I am taking 3x more trades, I am making more % per month and my drawdowns are easier to manage.
EdgeFinder looks at technicals, sentiment, seasonality and fundamentals to give you a clear bullish, neutral or bearish bias on a specific asset.
This data used to only be available if you had a Bloomberg terminal which costs $25k per year.
Now the retail traders can compete with the pros."
- Marko
👉 See exactly how the EdgeFinder has transformed Marko's trading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBUhJ6Y0AjI
Since I started using the EdgeFinder my trading results have transformed. I am taking 3x more trades, I am making more % per month and my drawdowns are easier to manage.
EdgeFinder looks at technicals, sentiment, seasonality and fundamentals to give you a clear bullish, neutral or bearish bias on a specific asset.
This data used to only be available if you had a Bloomberg terminal which costs $25k per year.
Now the retail traders can compete with the pros."
- Marko
👉 See exactly how the EdgeFinder has transformed Marko's trading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBUhJ6Y0AjI
❤24😎4🔥3