USD/JPY Reverses Above 160 as Intervention Risk Returns

USD/JPY pushed above 160 but quickly reversed as officials stepped in with verbal intervention. That level remains a clear line in the sand—markets know real intervention risk picks up here.

The yen is still under pressure from the same driver: higher oil and import costs tied to the Middle East conflict. That’s a direct hit to Japan’s economy and keeps JPY weak structurally.

But once price breaks into intervention territory, officials start talking—and the market listens. Warnings around speculative activity signal that authorities are getting uncomfortable with the pace of the move.

USD/JPY is still driven by macro (oil, rates), but above 160, you’re trading against intervention risk. That’s what creates these sharp reversals.

- Alan

DXY Hits Big Resistance Again. The Stacked Economic Calendar Is In Focus

DXY is holding near 10-month highs, with strong upside momentum and tracking toward its largest monthly gain in months. Trend remains firmly bullish unless something shifts materially.

The dollar is catching a bid from safe-haven flows and relative strength. Ongoing Middle East tensions, mixed signals on negotiations, and a still-disrupted Strait of Hormuz are keeping uncertainty elevated.

Higher oil prices are also a key driver—they hurt energy importers like Japan and Europe, while the U.S. is more insulated. That divergence is supporting USD.

On top of that, rate differentials and growth expectations continue to favor the dollar, with positioning now leaning heavily bullish.

Unless there’s clear de-escalation or a shift in Fed expectations, the dollar stays supported. This week, all eyes are on U.S. labor data for the next move.

- Alan

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EUR/USD Ends March at a 2.23% Loss

EUR/USD closed the month below 1.15, drifting lower after a volatile stretch. Price remains capped, with the 200-day MA acting as resistance, and rallies likely to get sold into under current conditions.

The euro is under pressure from a strong dollar and worsening macro backdrop. Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices are feeding inflation across Europe, forcing a shift in ECB expectations.

Markets have flipped from pricing cuts to now expecting rate hikes into 2026, but that hasn’t been enough to support EUR. Growth concerns and ongoing uncertainty are still dominating.

Add in a bearish fundamental bias (EdgeFinder score of -8), and the setup favors selling strength rather than chasing upside.

This week is data-heavy for both the U.S. and Eurozone, which could reshape the macro outlook. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower.

- Alan

The Battle of Central Banks: CHF/JPY

CHF/JPY has been in a strong uptrend, but now you’re starting to see cracks—a break in trend and loss of the 50-day SMA, with bearish signals finally showing up after a long stretch of strength.

Fundamentals:
This is a central bank battle. On one side, the SNB is pushing back against CHF strength, effectively capping upside. On the other, the BoJ is signaling it won’t tolerate excessive yen weakness—putting a soft floor under JPY.

That creates a unique setup where both sides are creating an alignment in trend.

Fundamentally, CHF isn’t as strong as price suggests either—data has been underwhelming, reinforcing that upside cap. Meanwhile, Japan still has a longer-term path toward tightening, even if intervention timing is uncertain.

Trade Dynamic:
The key wildcard is BoJ intervention. There’s no confirmed level, but historically the market reacts around 160–162 USD/JPY, which indirectly matters here.

What makes this setup interesting: positive carry on shorts. CHF/JPY is one of the rare XXX/JPY pairs where you actually get paid to hold a short—changing the risk profile for swing positioning.

You’ve got an EdgeFinder score leaning bearish, central bank alignment, weakening technicals, and favorable carry, but no confirmation yet. Until intervention hits, this is still a high-risk fade of a strong trend.

- Alan

Taking a closer look at the Mag 7...

Within StockBox, AMZN, MSFT, META, and NVDA are standing out as trading relatively cheap compared to their 3 year averages.

While in the short term the market looks like it is still in a rocky downtrend, long term, I will continue looking to add to these names in my portfolio.

These are some of the top businesses in the world, now trading at what I believe to be relatively cheap valuations.

Currently, I already own shares in META & AMZN, and have sold puts on MSFT & NFLX (not listed in this image, but has a strong score rn too).

- Nick

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Euro Bounce Looks Tactical For Now, Not a Trend Shift

EUR/USD is catching a bounce back toward 1.16 after Trump floated a potential U.S. exit from Iran within weeks—deal or no deal. That was enough to give the euro some breathing room after a brutal March where it dropped over 2%.

But nothing’s actually resolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still a problem, oil is still elevated, and inflation risks across Europe aren’t going anywhere.

Markets have already started adjusting. Rate expectations for the ECB have been dialed back—less than two hikes now priced for 2026 vs. as many as three just weeks ago. That’s a shift.

And structurally, not much has changed. EdgeFinder is still sitting at a bearish -8. So while price is bouncing, the underlying story hasn’t flipped. This still looks like a relief rally inside a broader weak backdrop—not a full reversal.

- Alan

DXY Pulls Back as Safe-Haven Bid Fades

DXY failed to hold the 100.5 highs and is now pulling back into the 99.5 support zone — a key level to watch in the near-term. Despite strong U.S. data (Retail Sales + ADP), price couldn’t extend higher, which signals fading momentum on the safe-haven bid.

The move lower comes as Middle East tensions show signs of stabilization, reducing demand for the dollar. That said, price is still holding within a broader bullish structure for now — this is more of a pullback than a confirmed reversal unless 99.5 breaks clean.

Above, 100.5 remains the clear resistance and recent high. A reclaim puts continuation back on the table. Below, a break of 99.5 opens the door for a deeper unwind of the war premium.

Fundamentally, this is a transition phase — shifting from geopolitics driving flows to central banks taking back control. If tensions ease further, expect rate expectations and inflation narratives to dictate the next move.

- Alan

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EUR/USD shorts from earlier today!

DXY swinging back this afternoon.

- Nick