A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
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Markets Reprice Fast After Trump's Speech (Full Coverage)

Markets didn’t like what they heard. Trump killed any near-term hopes of de-escalation, and everything repriced fast.

Oil ripped higher—Oil up ~14% back above $113—as there’s still no real plan to reopen Hormuz. And once oil moves like that, everything else follows.

Equities sold off across the board, bonds got hit, and yields pushed higher as traders started leaning into a “higher for longer” rate environment again. The dollar caught a bid, while gold actually pulled back after its recent run.

On rates, expectations shifted pretty aggressively—Fed cuts for 2026 are basically off the table now, while hikes from the BoE and ECB are getting priced in more confidently.

There’s also a positioning element here. Going into a long holiday stretch, traders are trimming risk—and the recent pattern says it all: early-week strength gets faded hard into Thursday and Friday.

This was a clean risk-off move driven by oil and geopolitics.

- Alan
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The Chart Behind All The Pain

U.S. oil is now trading above $110 — that’s clear escalation territory. At these levels, it’s not just a headline anymore, it starts feeding directly into the inflation narrative and pushing yields higher.

The bigger issue is duration. Oil hasn’t just spiked—it’s been elevated for over a month. That’s where things get uncomfortable.

Sustained high energy prices bleed into everything—transportation, production, consumer goods. Margins get squeezed, input costs rise, and companies either absorb it or pass it on. Either way, it keeps inflation sticky.

For central banks, that’s a problem. It limits their ability to ease and forces a more hawkish stance for longer, which is why yields stay bid.

Short spikes can be ignored. Prolonged elevation turns into real economic pressure—and markets start to feel it.

- Alan
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S&P 500 Rebounds on Strong Jobs Data, But Key Resistance Still Looms

Stocks are catching a bid off the recent lows after a strong labor print surprised markets. The U.S. added 178K jobs in March, crushing expectations and reversing February’s loss — a clear signal the labor market is still holding up.

Right now, the economy is showing resilience. But the lagged effects of elevated oil prices haven’t fully hit yet, and that’s where things could shift. In response, traders are already dialing back expectations for Fed cuts into 2026.

From a technical standpoint, the key level hasn’t changed — the 200-day moving average. Most major indices are still trading below it. A clean break and sustained hold above signals real strength and potential trend reversal. Until then, structurally, this remains a bear market.

- Alan
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New Zealand's Central Bank Flips Neutral

NZD/USD rolled over back toward 0.570, snapping a short-lived two-day bounce as geopolitical risk came back into focus. Markets were leaning toward de-escalation, but that quickly repriced after Trump’s address offered no real clarity — instead signaling the conflict could drag on for weeks.

Prolonged tension keeps oil elevated, and that feeds directly into the inflation narrative. You’re seeing it translate into broader risk-off sentiment and pressure on growth-sensitive currencies like the Kiwi.

From a macro standpoint, the RBNZ is already flagging this. Higher energy costs risk squeezing households and pushing inflation back up. While they’ve said they’ll look through short-term spikes, the tone shifts if energy-driven inflation proves sticky — that’s where rate hike risk comes back into play.

In the near term, expectations have cooled. The market now sees the RBNZ holding steady next week, with odds of a May hike dropping sharply.

- Alan
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NZD/USD Pressured as Oil-Driven Inflation Meets Dovish RBNZ Stance

NZD/USD remains under pressure, giving back recent gains as risk sentiment deteriorates. Fading hopes of a quick Middle East resolution have kept oil elevated, feeding into inflation concerns and weighing on growth-sensitive currencies like the Kiwi.

On the macro side, the RBNZ is in a holding pattern for now. They’ve made it clear they’re willing to look through short-term inflation pressures driven by higher oil — which helps explain why rate hike expectations have cooled. That said, if energy-driven inflation proves persistent, the tone can shift quickly back toward tightening.

Technically, momentum is still to the downside. Rallies lack conviction, and unless risk sentiment improves, NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further weakness.

- Alan
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The Next 24 Hours Are Critical

Technically, oil remains elevated as markets wrestle with conflicting sentiment .

The tone shifted fast after Trump signaled a hard deadline, with direct threats toward Iranian infrastructure if the strait isn’t reopened. That kind of rhetoric keeps risk premium elevated and volatility high.

On the supply side, OPEC+ is trying to offset war-driven disruptions with higher output, but it’s not enough to fully close the gap. Physical markets are already showing stress — inventories are drawing down against a sizable deficit, and Saudi Aramco’s aggressive price hike to Asia confirms just how tight things are getting.

From a macro lens, this feeds straight into inflation. Higher oil supports energy names and petro-currencies, but it’s a headwind for broader risk as it pressures yields and delays any easing cycle.

Iran rejecting the ceasefire adds another layer of uncertainty, with the next 24 hours being critical into Trump’s stated deadline.

- Alan
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USOIL 4H Chart

Oil is on the move again. I've personally just moved my stop loss further into profits, below today's intraday lows.

Strong jobs data + high geopolitical uncertainty seems to be fueling a breakout.

Congrats to fellow oil bulls 💪

- Nick
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