S&P Finishes It's Best Month Since 2020
S&P 500 is near the highs despite the Fed's hawkish guidance yesterday — three dissents, the most since 1992.. April is closing out at +9.3%, the index's best month since 2020.
Last night's mega-cap earnings were a split decision. Alphabet was the standout — revenue up 22%, cloud up 63%, net income surged 81%. Amazon beat across the board with AWS up 28%. But Meta dropped 9% after raising capex guidance to $125–145B while missing on user growth. Microsoft slipped 2% despite solid numbers.
Combined, these four companies now project up to $725B in 2026 capex. That number is the market's new fault line — the gap between AI investment and AI returns is where the next correction will start if it comes.
The S&P is pricing in peace, peak earnings, and a patient Fed simultaneously. All three held through April. But with WTI now above $100 and the Fed signaling it won't cut anytime soon, the margin for error at these levels is razor thin. Apple reports tonight.
- Alan
S&P 500 is near the highs despite the Fed's hawkish guidance yesterday — three dissents, the most since 1992.. April is closing out at +9.3%, the index's best month since 2020.
Last night's mega-cap earnings were a split decision. Alphabet was the standout — revenue up 22%, cloud up 63%, net income surged 81%. Amazon beat across the board with AWS up 28%. But Meta dropped 9% after raising capex guidance to $125–145B while missing on user growth. Microsoft slipped 2% despite solid numbers.
Combined, these four companies now project up to $725B in 2026 capex. That number is the market's new fault line — the gap between AI investment and AI returns is where the next correction will start if it comes.
The S&P is pricing in peace, peak earnings, and a patient Fed simultaneously. All three held through April. But with WTI now above $100 and the Fed signaling it won't cut anytime soon, the margin for error at these levels is razor thin. Apple reports tonight.
- Alan
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The BoJ Executed A Synthetic Intervention
USD/JPY spiked to 160.73 overnight — the highest since July 2024 — then crashed in a matter of hours.
Vice Finance Minister Mimura issued what he called his "final advisory" to speculators — essentially telling leveraged yen shorts to get out while they can. Finance Minister Katayama followed up saying Tokyo is nearing the timing for "decisive action." Reports suggest rate checks followed, the same playbook as January when a single rate check sent USD/JPY down 500+ pips without Japan spending a dollar of reserves.
This is synthetic intervention — verbal threats backed by coordination with the US. It costs nothing, spooks the speculative community into covering, and creates the move for free.
The January parallel is almost exact. The question is whether this reversal holds or fades like it did before — the fundamental rate differential (3.75% Fed vs 0.75% BoJ) keeps pulling the pair higher. Japan is just buying some time for now. Imo.
- Alan
USD/JPY spiked to 160.73 overnight — the highest since July 2024 — then crashed in a matter of hours.
Vice Finance Minister Mimura issued what he called his "final advisory" to speculators — essentially telling leveraged yen shorts to get out while they can. Finance Minister Katayama followed up saying Tokyo is nearing the timing for "decisive action." Reports suggest rate checks followed, the same playbook as January when a single rate check sent USD/JPY down 500+ pips without Japan spending a dollar of reserves.
This is synthetic intervention — verbal threats backed by coordination with the US. It costs nothing, spooks the speculative community into covering, and creates the move for free.
The January parallel is almost exact. The question is whether this reversal holds or fades like it did before — the fundamental rate differential (3.75% Fed vs 0.75% BoJ) keeps pulling the pair higher. Japan is just buying some time for now. Imo.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Gasoline accounted for $81.3B of the $195.4B monthly spending increase in March. What does this concentration signal?
Gasoline accounted for $81.3B of the $195.4B monthly spending increase in March. What does this concentration signal?
Anonymous Quiz
7%
Consumer spending is broad-based and healthy across all categories
80%
The spending increase was largely driven by higher energy costs, not organic demand
5%
Energy spending has zero effect on headline inflation readings
8%
Consumers have permanently shifted all discretionary spending to fuel
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The Next ECB Meeting Can Cause Volatility
EUR/USD at 1.1756, reclaiming support after the ECB held unanimously but debated hiking for the first time this cycle. The 50-day EMA has held for five straight sessions — that's the line on any pullback.
Lagarde confirmed June is the real decision, saying in six weeks they'll have enough clarity to act. Markets price ~65bps of tightening by year-end. Eurozone CPI hit 3% in April. The data supports a move.
But this is a two-sided setup. If the war de-escalates and energy costs drop, that hike pricing unwinds fast — the ECB would have no reason to tighten into a fragile recovery. If oil stays above $100, hikes are locked in and the euro runs.
Lagarde said they made "an informed decision based on as-yet insufficient information." The ECB is flying blind. EUR/USD is coiled — direction depends on the Strait of Hormuz over the next six weeks.
- Alan
EUR/USD at 1.1756, reclaiming support after the ECB held unanimously but debated hiking for the first time this cycle. The 50-day EMA has held for five straight sessions — that's the line on any pullback.
Lagarde confirmed June is the real decision, saying in six weeks they'll have enough clarity to act. Markets price ~65bps of tightening by year-end. Eurozone CPI hit 3% in April. The data supports a move.
But this is a two-sided setup. If the war de-escalates and energy costs drop, that hike pricing unwinds fast — the ECB would have no reason to tighten into a fragile recovery. If oil stays above $100, hikes are locked in and the euro runs.
Lagarde said they made "an informed decision based on as-yet insufficient information." The ECB is flying blind. EUR/USD is coiled — direction depends on the Strait of Hormuz over the next six weeks.
- Alan
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The UK Is Positioned To Hike (But Surprised Dovish)
Yesterday's BoE hold at 3.75% was actually more dovish than expected — an 8-1 split with only Pill dissenting — but the broader dollar weakness from the Japan intervention drama is doing the heavy lifting here.
Bailey framed the oil shock carefully, distinguishing it from 2022: the energy increase is smaller, policy started more restrictive, and the labor market is weaker. His key line — if the shock is "short-lived or the economy weaker, policy should place more weight on avoiding unnecessary contraction" — was a clear signal the BoE isn't rushing to hike.
Markets have dialed back the hawkish BoE narrative. The 2-3 dissents some expected never materialized. The BoE published three scenarios depending on how long the war lasts, essentially admitting they're hedging every outcome.
- Alan
Yesterday's BoE hold at 3.75% was actually more dovish than expected — an 8-1 split with only Pill dissenting — but the broader dollar weakness from the Japan intervention drama is doing the heavy lifting here.
Bailey framed the oil shock carefully, distinguishing it from 2022: the energy increase is smaller, policy started more restrictive, and the labor market is weaker. His key line — if the shock is "short-lived or the economy weaker, policy should place more weight on avoiding unnecessary contraction" — was a clear signal the BoE isn't rushing to hike.
Markets have dialed back the hawkish BoE narrative. The 2-3 dissents some expected never materialized. The BoE published three scenarios depending on how long the war lasts, essentially admitting they're hedging every outcome.
- Alan
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Dollar cost averaging means:
Dollar cost averaging means:
Anonymous Quiz
69%
Investing a fixed dollar amount at regular intervals regardless of price
12%
Only buying when the asset drops to its lowest possible price
16%
Timing entries perfectly to guarantee the best average cost
3%
Investing your entire position in a single transaction for maximum impact
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Is USD/JPY About To Make Another Leg Lower?
USD/JPY moved abruptly during thin Asian liquidity. Tokyo officials won't confirm, but sources say they were buying yen for the first time in two years.
The intervention playbook is clear: Japan acts in bursts to punish overcrowded positioning, then steps back. Each spike lower shakes out leveraged longs, creates panic, and resets sentiment — but the fundamental rate differential (3.75% Fed vs 0.75% BoJ) hasn't changed. That gravity pulls USD/JPY higher every time the intervention effect fades.
The key question is whether Washington joins in. Bilateral intervention would be a different story entirely. Until that's confirmed, these are temporary disruptions, not trend changes.
Don't chase. The pair is stalling between intervention floors and yield-driven ceilings. Markets are engineered to shake people out on both sides right now. Without a clear break below 154 with follow-through, shorting USD/JPY here is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
- Alan
USD/JPY moved abruptly during thin Asian liquidity. Tokyo officials won't confirm, but sources say they were buying yen for the first time in two years.
The intervention playbook is clear: Japan acts in bursts to punish overcrowded positioning, then steps back. Each spike lower shakes out leveraged longs, creates panic, and resets sentiment — but the fundamental rate differential (3.75% Fed vs 0.75% BoJ) hasn't changed. That gravity pulls USD/JPY higher every time the intervention effect fades.
The key question is whether Washington joins in. Bilateral intervention would be a different story entirely. Until that's confirmed, these are temporary disruptions, not trend changes.
Don't chase. The pair is stalling between intervention floors and yield-driven ceilings. Markets are engineered to shake people out on both sides right now. Without a clear break below 154 with follow-through, shorting USD/JPY here is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
- Alan
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Will "Project Freedom" Push Oil Lower?
Oil briefly dipped under $100 on the Asian open after the US launched Project Freedom — destroyers escorting stranded tankers through the Strait of Hormuz starting today. Brent fell 2.4% to below $108.
This doesn't reopen the Strait — it gets a handful of ships out under heavy military cover. Iran's mines are still in the water, and Tehran is calling it a ceasefire violation. A tanker was already struck overnight. Normal commercial traffic isn't resuming. The "new Hormuz" requires military escort, not the free navigation markets are wanting.
OPEC+ raised June output by 188K bpd Sunday — the first meeting without the UAE. OPEC lost 7.88M bpd in March alone. The increase is a rounding error against that.
The ceasefire is holding in name only. No direct fire since April 7, but both sides are blockading each other and seizing ships. The question isn't whether this is peace — it isn't. It's whether the pressure forces a deal or triggers something worse.
- Alan
Oil briefly dipped under $100 on the Asian open after the US launched Project Freedom — destroyers escorting stranded tankers through the Strait of Hormuz starting today. Brent fell 2.4% to below $108.
This doesn't reopen the Strait — it gets a handful of ships out under heavy military cover. Iran's mines are still in the water, and Tehran is calling it a ceasefire violation. A tanker was already struck overnight. Normal commercial traffic isn't resuming. The "new Hormuz" requires military escort, not the free navigation markets are wanting.
OPEC+ raised June output by 188K bpd Sunday — the first meeting without the UAE. OPEC lost 7.88M bpd in March alone. The increase is a rounding error against that.
The ceasefire is holding in name only. No direct fire since April 7, but both sides are blockading each other and seizing ships. The question isn't whether this is peace — it isn't. It's whether the pressure forces a deal or triggers something worse.
- Alan
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Gold Is Crashing...
Chart of the Day: XAU/USD🔥
Chart of the Day: XAU/USD🔥
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🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
If GDP misses expectations while core PCE accelerates. What is this combination called?
If GDP misses expectations while core PCE accelerates. What is this combination called?
Anonymous Quiz
7%
Reflation — growth and inflation rising together
6%
Disinflation — inflation is cooling alongside slower growth
75%
Stagflationary pressure — slowing growth with rising inflation
12%
Deflation — both growth and prices are contracting simultaneously
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